When Russia conducted a series of secret military satellite launches around the time of its invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, American intelligence officials began digging into the mystery of what exactly the Russians were doing.
Spy agencies then discovered that Russia was working on a new type of space weapon that could threaten the thousands of satellites that keep it connected to the rest of the world.
In recent weeks, new warnings have been issued by American intelligence agencies. Another launch may be planned, and the question is whether Russia plans to use it to send a real nuclear weapon into space. This is a violation of rules from half a century ago. Treaty. While government agencies are divided on whether President Vladimir V. Putin will go that far, the information is still an urgent concern for the Biden administration.
U.S. officials agree that even if Russia were to place a nuclear weapon in orbit, the weapon would not explode. Rather, it lurks as a time bomb in low orbit, potentially destroying Ukraine's economy without targeting humanity on Earth if sanctions and military opposition to Ukraine's ambitions at home and abroad are too severe. This is a reminder to Mr. Putin.
Despite the uncertainty, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken raised the possibility of Russia's nuclear program on Friday and Saturday on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference, along with his peers China and India.
Mr. Blinken's message was blunt: a nuclear explosion in space would destroy not only U.S. satellites but also those of Beijing and New Delhi.
Additionally, U.S. officials and outside analysts say global communications systems will be disrupted, knocking out everything from emergency services to cellphones to controls for generators and pumps. . Debris from the explosion would be scattered throughout low Earth orbit, making navigation difficult if not impossible for everything from Starlink satellites used for Internet communications to spy satellites.
Mr. Blinken said Mr. Putin has made clear his disdain for the United States, so it is up to Chinese and Indian leaders, President Xi Jinping, to persuade Mr. It is up to Prime Minister Narendra Modi, he said. disaster.
The State Department said in a statement Saturday that Blinken “stressed that the pursuit of this capability should be a matter of concern” during the meeting.
“He will continue to raise this issue at additional sessions of the Munich Security Council,” the statement continued.
It is unclear how much information Blinken shared about a previously unreported Russian satellite test in 2022 during his meetings with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar.
Some intelligence officials objected to sharing too much about what the United States knows because details of the Russian program remain classified, U.S. officials said. But others argued that the United States needed to share enough information to convince China and India of the seriousness of the threat. Officials said the two men received the information during a meeting in Munich, during which Mr. Wang repeated China's usual line about the importance of peaceful uses of outer space.
“Relying on your biggest enemy to get a message to Moscow is never a good idea, but in this case, if the reports are true, China will get the message,” said Rep. Michael Walz, R-Florida, House intelligence director. They will have a vested interest in delivering it.” the commission said in an email Saturday.
Blinken said U.S. officials believe a series of warnings to Putin were successful in October 2022, when there was serious alarm in Washington that Russia was preparing to use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine. was trying to reproduce. Mr. Putin has since retracted his threat, but it remains unclear how much pressure he was under, especially from Mr. Xi, who has strengthened ties with Russia.
The United States and the Soviet Union briefly tested nuclear weapons in space before ratifying the 1967 Outer Space Treaty, which prohibits placing nuclear weapons of any kind into orbit and prohibiting further nuclear detonations in space. The 1962 U.S. test launch from Johnston Atoll in the Pacific Ocean was particularly damaging. The electromagnetic pulse that exploded 450 miles into the atmosphere destroyed Hawaii's electronic equipment, disrupted Hawaii's telephone service, knocked at least six orbiting satellites out of the sky, and damaged others.
Realizing how harmful this test was, the United States and the Soviet Union signed the Limited Test Ban Treaty a year later, banning nuclear tests in the atmosphere and outer space.
If Mr. Putin were to place the weapon in low-Earth orbit, U.S. officials are concerned that it would not only violate the 1967 treaty. It is one of the last major arms control treaties still in effect. Biden administration officials have expressed concern that a violation by Russia could prompt other countries, including North Korea, to follow suit.
For Mr. Putin, launching nuclear weapons into space would intensify conflicts with the United States and Europe. His inability to seize Ukraine, even with a much larger army, is a clear illustration of the limits of Russia's conventional military capabilities. In the view of U.S. and European intelligence agencies, this has led him to increasingly rely on his most powerful asymmetric weapons: nuclear weapons and cyberattacks.
A senior intelligence official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive nuclear issues, said Mr. Putin believes that none of Russia's adversaries, including the United States, will risk direct confrontation with Russia, so he is confident that Russia will develop space-based nuclear weapons. He said he thinks he is. Russia over the deployment of nuclear-capable satellites.
Another intelligence official, speaking on condition of anonymity for similar reasons, said Mr. Putin may be betting that the threat of a nuclear explosion in space is different from the threat of destruction in Los Angeles or London. The official added that Putin may believe that he would threaten hardware, not people, which would give him latitude to deploy new satellites.
In public, the White House has only described Russia's new weapon as anti-satellite technology, without providing further details. But officials insist it poses no direct threat to humanity.
John F. Kirby, a senior national security official, told reporters: “We are not talking about weapons that could be used to attack humans or cause physical destruction on Earth.” Ta.
The new information comes after Rep. Michael Turner, R-Ohio and chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, issued a cryptic public warning Tuesday that the U.S. had received new information regarding a “grave national security threat.” It became clear after it was released.
Mr. Turner had been sending letters for several weeks expressing concerns about anti-satellite technology. U.S. officials say he was growing frustrated and worried that the administration wasn't taking the issue seriously enough, an allegation that administration officials deny.
Turner's comments on Tuesday infuriated the White House and the spy agencies because of their expected impact. Reporters rushing to learn more about the intelligence community have begun to reveal details about anti-satellite weapons.
Kirby said Thursday that President Biden had directed the diplomatic push, but he did not provide details of the plan.
“He has directed a series of initial actions, including additional briefings to Congressional leaders and direct diplomatic engagement with Russia, our allies and partners, and other interested countries around the world,” Kirby said. said. .
Eric Schmidt Contributed to reporting in Washington.
