- Written by Chris Mason
- BBC News Political Editor
Barring a significant change in the poll results, Rishi Sunak knows his time as chancellor is numbered.
However, he is the champion of a smoking plan that enjoys significant cross-party political support, and this appears to usher in considerable social change.
And this cross-party support suggests that this is a more politically long-lasting idea than his, as Labor will not scrap it even if it wins the election. .
In other words, whatever happens is what some in political circles call a legacy.
As I wrote here when Mr Sunak first set out his plan last autumn, what he then described as the “biggest public health intervention in a generation”, this meant that the government would: It is an attempt to push or impose social changes little by little. The end of smoking is near.
On Tuesday, Health Secretary Victoria Atkins said she hoped creating a smoke-free generation would “save thousands of young people from addiction and premature death and save billions of pounds for the NHS”. Ta.
What was once mainstream is no longer mainstream. Currently, attempts are being made to nearly eradicate it over time.
This discussion does not end here. What we have seen so far is the early stages of Congress. There is still much work to be done before it becomes law.
This is the big picture, and it's about the possibilities for social change. What about politics?
Nearly 60 Conservative MPs voted against Mr Sunak's idea.
True, they had a free vote – they weren't told how to vote – and yet they rebelled against him. Among them was cabinet minister Kemi Badenoch.
Another 100 or so abstained. Among them was Minister Penny Mordaunt.
A source close to Mordaunt told me: “She has not been a supporter of this bill. She has a lot of objections to this bill. She is against the practicality of the bill, the implementation and implementation of the bill. However, as a current Cabinet member, she abstained because she considered voting. If you object, it will be more confrontational and posturing than abstaining. ”
Who does it dig? Ah, Kemi Badenoch.
And what do Mr. Mordaunt and Mr. Badenoch have in common? A splash of ambition.
Both men are seen by some as future Conservative Party leaders.
Read more about smoking cessation
The numbers show that nearly half of Conservative MPs are unwilling to support one of the party leader's key ideas over the past six months.
This tells us something about the finicky nature of the Conservative Party, but it was not so clear to the average observer.
Labor is already gleefully saying it did a good job backing the idea, otherwise Mr Sunak would have lost.
And they are also publicly pondering what they would do if the opposition had a chance to change its mind and launch an amendment.
However, if supporters continue to support the plan, they will be defeated again.
If governments manage to grasp a plan that aligns with the direction society is already headed, the force of law will push society deeply and perhaps forever.
This idea appears to be one of them, at least for now.
And for all his political problems, the author is Mr. Sunak.
