Friday's major event in the crypto market will determine the direction of the market in the coming days ahead of Bitcoin's halving. The cryptocurrency will be the largest expiration date for Bitcoin and Ethereum options, with crypto derivatives exchange Deribit settling over $15 billion in BTC and ETH options.
moreover, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Announces the US Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge PCE and core PCE. Experts expect inflation to cool further, but the annual value could send a shock to the market.Chairman of the Board of Governors of the United States Federal Reserve System Jerome Powell He is also scheduled to give a lecture on macroeconomics and monetary policy on March 29th.
Monthly and quarterly expiration dates for Bitcoin and Ethereum options
Traders are bracing for monthly and quarterly expirations. Biggest cryptocurrency expiration date in history. Over the past 24 hours, the Crypto Greed and Fear Index has dropped from 83 to 80 (Extreme Greed), indicating a decline in pre-expiry purchases and PCE inflation data.
Deribit said this Friday will be one of the largest expirations in the history of crypto derivatives exchanges. $9.5 billion in BTC options Of the $26.3 billion, open interest will expire. moreover, $5.7 billion in ETH options Open interest out of a total of $13.2 billion will expire on March 22 at 8:00 a.m. UTC. The market could see heavy buying after the expiry date, with traders watching for BTC and ETH prices to reach new all-time highs.
Additionally, $465 million in BTC March futures and $230 million in ETH March futures will expire. That's about $700 million out of $1.9 billion.
especially, 135,000 BTC options The notional amount of $9.5 billion expires, resulting in a put-call ratio of 0.85. The biggest pain point is at $51,000, indicating that significant volatility is to be expected amidst large deliveries and position turnover. Although volatile price movements are always expected during option expiry, positive sentiment could push upward momentum in BTC price to $75,000.
BTC price is currently trading at $71,200, up 2% from the 24-hour low of $68,381.
moreover, 1,575K ETH option Approximately $5.6 billion of notional principal has expired, resulting in a put-call ratio of 0.63. The biggest problem is that he will cost $2,600, which is also higher than his current price of $3,560. Traders should pay attention to sudden changes in trading volume to confirm a recovery or decline in ETH price.
Meanwhile, call volume exceeds put volume ahead of the major expiration date, resulting in a put/call ratio of 0.68. ETH price is trading at $3,581, up 3% from the 24-hour low of $3,460.
GreeksLive Market Researcher Adam A post on X said that market makers' hedging costs have increased significantly compared to last week, and positions are also accelerating. He added that the Matthew effect due to trading enthusiasm is also a factor influencing trading fluctuations during US time.
read more: Bitcoin options likely to sell by end of quarter, BTC price rejected at $72,000
Can the rally start immediately after the deadline?
Investors hoping for a rally in the crypto market will be disappointed, as the PCE inflation statistics and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech are likely to put pressure on BTC prices.
During the last bull market, Deribit had its largest expiration ever of 100,000 BTC options with a notional value of $3.1 billion. BTC price crashed after expiration. However, demand from spot Bitcoin ETFs can help mitigate the impact of option expirations to some extent.
Analyst michael van de poppe He said Bitcoin has held above important levels and further ATHs are expected if it remains above $67,000. “Overall, the pre-halving returns for Bitcoin appear to be relatively lopsided.” Any correction in BTC price is expected to be immediately bought by whales and investors.
top analyst Markus Thielen It is bullish that the Bitcoin price will exceed $100,000 and reach $140,000 after the Bitcoin halving. However, he also warned that the scheme could be invalidated if market volatility causes Bitcoin to trade below $68,000 by the end of the month.
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