Raleigh, North Carolina
CNN
—
Donald Trump and Republican rival Nikki Haley may be planning dueling rallies in North Carolina on Saturday, but the former president's appearance marks the end of his long run beyond the state's Super Tuesday primary. This could be an early window into strategy.
Of all the states voting Tuesday, North Carolina stands out as the state most likely to remain a hotbed of political activity long after polls close next week. The trip is likely to be the first of many for President Trump, who is already eyeing a possible rematch with President Joe Biden, as he seeks a third straight victory in this key battleground.
He will once again face stiff competition. North Carolina, which Trump narrowly won in 2020, has emerged as a key part of Biden's reelection strategy. The president's advisers say winning 16 electoral votes is not only achievable given the state's changing demographics, but also an insurance policy given the challenges in Michigan and other battleground states. thinking.
“North Carolina is going to be very competitive for both sides, and no one can take that for granted,” said the veteran operative behind many of the Republican Party's statewide victories in recent years. Paul Shoemaker said. “It's always going to be in a state of flux.”
Former President Haley and Vice President Kamala Harris' visits over the Super Tuesday weekend highlight North Carolina's growing importance on the electoral map.
“The president and I have been very intentional about investing in our communities in a variety of ways, including through small businesses,” Harris said Friday while in Durham, her second visit to the state this year. ” he said.
It's been 16 years since Barack Obama surprised North Carolina in 2008. The solitary victory, the first and only time a Democratic presidential candidate has carried the state in nearly 50 years, is less of a nostalgic lure and more of a latent appeal for the Biden camp. Rapid growth in Wake County around Raleigh, Mecklenburg County outside of Charlotte, and several other metropolitan areas is creating real opportunity.
Of the 836,000 voters the state has added since 2012, more than one-third live in Wake and Mecklenburg counties, which continue to add new residents every day. Biden won both counties by a margin of about 2-1 four years ago.
Chuck Burton/Associated Press
Former President Donald Trump gestures after speaking at the North Carolina Republican Party convention in Greensboro on June 10, 2023.
Sarah Reddy-Jones has watched the Republican fight for the race in Charlotte deepen with each election. A former Republican operative who most recently led the Mecklenburg County Republican Party, she once launched a website called “Don't Seattle My Charlotte.” It was a rallying cry that appealed to local conservatives' fears about the political changes that have accompanied the state's tech boom.
She doesn't know how long Republicans can hold out in North Carolina.
“It’s math,” she said. “You can see how many people with out-of-state licenses drive around here.”
It is precisely in these swing states that Haley has argued that Republicans risk defeat if they nominate Trump again, an argument that has garnered significant support for the former South Carolina governor, but It's likely not enough to defeat the president.
“He can't win the general election,” Haley said Friday night at a rally in Charlotte, drawing thunderous applause.
On Friday, Haley, who received support from Sens. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and Susan Collins of Maine, directly confronted President Trump and what she described as his negative attitude toward his supporters.
“If you think 30 to 40 percent of us don't need it, you're demonstrating exactly why we lose general elections,” she said.
Haley's vote could hold important lessons as the Republican primary wanes, but perhaps for her own candidates, Trump, Biden or even third-party candidates. This will be a very important lesson. The results of Tuesday's primary will be carefully studied by Trump and Biden's campaign advisers, who are zeroing in on her supporters as they strategize for the eight-month march to the November election. It turns out.
Will Trump convince Haley's supporters to overcome their dissatisfaction with her and rally behind his candidacy? Will some of those moderate voters turn to Mr. Biden in the fall? North Carolina State will be one of the key laboratories providing answers to these and other questions.
North Carolina could also further expose Mr. Trump's challenge in persuading college-educated voters to support his third presidential bid. In North Carolina, the percentage of people with a bachelor's degree or higher is growing faster than almost any other state.
College-educated voters in the Tar Heel State tilted heavily toward Biden in 2020 and have been a key part of the coalition of Republican voters resisting Trump in the Republican presidential primary so far this year.
Paying homage to their importance in 2024, Harris, who visited North Carolina on Friday, spoke to young electors in Durham, an area known as the Research Triangle for its proximity to high-tech companies and top universities such as Duke University. Participated in a training session for campaign volunteers. and the University of North Carolina.
Peter Zai/Anadolu/Getty Images
Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at an event in Durham, North Carolina, on March 1, 2024.
Although many Republicans have scoffed at the idea that North Carolina could ultimately be considered one of the top battleground states, the narrowing of Trump's margin of victory from 2016 to 2020 has led to campaign officials It provides sufficient grounds for taking this conflict seriously. He won the state by about 74,000 votes out of 5.4 million votes cast in 2020. The difference is 1.3 points, less than half of the vote share four years ago.
“I don't think we're going to be a blue state for the foreseeable future,” said Wake County Republican Party Vice President Billy Ward in Raleigh. “But I don't take that for granted. We need to reach out to all voters and see if they're motivated.”
Susie Wiles, a senior adviser to President Trump, did not directly address the possibility of North Carolina flipping blue in response to a question at a Trump rally at the end of the year, but the campaign said it was one of the most talked-about battleground states. He told CNN he was taking everything “seriously.”
“I think anything that we know to be competitive is competitive,” Wiles said. “I think I will be able to fight even more energetically this time than last time.”
Another Trump adviser told CNN that the campaign knows the state will be a focus of the campaign and plans to wage an aggressive ground campaign in the state.
President Trump handpicked North Carolina Republican Party Chairman Michael Whatley, whom he nominated to replace outgoing chair Ronna McDaniel as Republican National Committee chair. Mr. Whatley's elevation has emboldened local Republicans that the national party will remain clear-eyed about North Carolina's importance this term.
But Whatley also summarized the state party's leanings toward MAGA, which raises concerns about whether the Republican Party can survive in upcoming statewide elections. Whatley himself is a propagator of falsehoods about the 2020 election. Last year, the party censored fellow Sen. Thom Tillis for supporting LGBTQ rights and immigration reform at a Republican state convention where Trump spoke. A state where the kind of cross-aisle efforts helped Republicans win in the diverse purple.
Meanwhile, the party appears ready to nominate Trump supporter Mark Robinson, Lt. Governor, in the state's open gubernatorial election. Robinson is an outspoken and unapologetically conservative conservative with a long record of divisive statements, particularly on social issues such as abortion and gay rights.
Robinson's nomination is likely to be a further boost for Democrats, who are already trying to make abortion access a central campaign issue in North Carolina. Last year, Republicans with a supermajority in the state Legislature overrode a veto by Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper and passed a bill that almost completely bans abortions after 12 weeks of pregnancy. Robinson, who has universally voiced his opposition to abortion, said his office is currently supporting legislation that would ban abortions after a “heartbeat” is detected. However, there are exceptions for rape, incest, and the life of the mother.
Ben McCune/AP/File
President Joe Biden speaks at an event in Raleigh, North Carolina, on January 18, 2024.
Anderson Clayton, the state Democratic Party chairman, is bullish on the party's prospects and believes the Biden campaign is seriously considering North Carolina. The 26-year-old former political organizer is seeking to inject new energy into the state Democratic Party as the nation's youngest party chair, having defeated longtime party leaders to win the position last year.
“It doesn't matter to me whether North Carolina is a purple state, a battleground state or a potential blue state,” Clayton said. “We know it's a 50-50 state, and we need to fight for every vote in all 100 counties.”
She also challenged the assumption that population growth would ultimately guarantee Democratic victory. Conservative voters are also moving to North Carolina, particularly in the southeastern corner of the state, which has seen dramatic growth.
“Yes, we will see more growth in urban communities, and trends in North Carolina will become even bluer in the future,” Anderson said. “But there is also a large migration of people from the Northeast who call themselves political refugees and come to North Carolina.”
The Trump campaign is targeting the appeals of military families in North Carolina, where eight bases are located, by arguing that the Biden administration is overextending the U.S. military. He also plans to criticize the president over his handling of the Russia-Ukraine war.
And there are top issues that could sway the state's rapidly growing independent voter base. Republicans believe these North Carolinians are truly floating voters who could be swayed by the record influx of migrants to the southern border and continued economic instability.
“At the end of the day, are these people going to be able to pay the bill and go to a restaurant in Charlotte, or are they going to have two meals of peanut butter and jelly?” Lady-Jones said.
CNN's Alayna Treene contributed to this report.
