Like it or not, fantasy baseball draft planners suffer from recency bias every year. It's virtually impossible for the human brain to avoid fixating on what it just witnessed. For this reason, players who come off disappointing seasons often become the most valuable players to those brave enough to take the risk. Here are some people who clearly have the skills to bounce back from unimpressive campaigns.
Mike Trout (OF, Los Angeles Angels)
Trout has missed significant time due to injury for three consecutive seasons. But the surprising aspect of his 2023 season is that the New Jersey native wasn't able to play at a superstar level when healthy. Trout posted an .858 OPS in 82 games, marking the first time since his rookie year that he was below .939 and ending his eighth consecutive season with an OPS of .990 or higher. The current draft season marks the first time in more than a decade that Trout has been available for less than a premium draft pick, but any manager taking the plunge needs to be confident he can play at a superstar level at age 32. right. Because his lackluster supporting cast is definitely not going to carry him. Still, it seems wise to bet on the best player of his generation for a fifth-round pick.
[2024 Fantasy Baseball Draft Rankings: C | 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | OF | SP | RP]
Edwin Diaz (RP, New York Mets)
Diaz suffered a torn patellar tendon during the World Baseball Classic and will miss the entire 2023 season. The 29-year-old is already back to full health and entered 2022 with a 1.31 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, and 118 strikeouts. Diaz is the easiest player to pick in this article and is undervalued with a Yahoo ADP of 65.0.
Aaron Nola (SP, Philadelphia Phillies)
Nola has endured a roller coaster over the past few seasons, posting an ERA under 3.30 in two of the last four years, but over 4.40 in the other two seasons. This roller coaster doesn't include volume fluctuations, as the right-handed pitcher hasn't missed a start due to injury since 2017. And in each of the past six years, Nola has recorded at least 200 strikeouts, except for the 2020 season, which was shortened due to the coronavirus. . Those looking at the glass half-full with Nola will note that his 66.4% strand rate in '23 is likely to improve this year. Naysayers, on the other hand, attribute his struggles to a 3.6% year-over-year drop in his strikeout rate. Overall, his consistent production makes the 30-year-old worth the risk of picking him at No. 51.4 in Yahoo ADP.
Carlos Rodon (SP, New York Yankees)
It's reasonable to assume that Rodon's debut season in the Bronx was ruined by an injury before it even started. The southpaw started the season on the IL with forearm tightness, but after returning in July he was ineffective in 14 starts (6.85 ERA, 1.45 WHIP). Rodon has endured a 60.5% strand rate and a 15.2% HR/FB rate, and should enjoy better luck in both of those areas this year. More concerning is his strikeout rate, which is down 11% year-over-year, but those who want to be optimistic may think he won't be able to fully maintain the increase in velocity that led to his career breakout year in 2021. You'll be happy to know that. Arguably the most talked about franchise player in baseball, Rodon's ADP (175.6) could skyrocket if he does well in spring training.
Alec Manoah (SP, Toronto Blue Jays)
Although Manoa posted a 5.87 ERA and 1.74 WHIP in 19 games from the legendary ace, he was undoubtedly the most disappointing of the 2023 players who did not get injured. Strangely, the right-hander made his last start at any level on August 10, even though Blue Jays management maintained the party line that he was fully healthy. . Toronto will keep a spot in the rotation open for Manoa, who must show during spring training that he can return to being the pitcher who posted a K-BB percentage of 19% in 2021 and 16.4% in 2022. . Manoah requires only a small investment as his ADP on Yahoo is his 241.7.
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Triston McKenzie (SP, Cleveland Guardians)
McKenzie went through two 60-day IL stints last year, one with a major column injury early in the season and the other with an elbow strain after making two starts in June. The right-handed pitcher returned for two outings at the end of September, raising hopes that he will be ready for the heavy workload this year. A healthy McKenzie is an absolute pro when it comes to inducing playable fly balls, as evidenced by his lifetime allowed WHIP of his 1.05 and BABIP of his 0.234. I am. He was drafted over 100 points later than last year (233.7 ADP), and at that price I'd take the plunge.
Cristian Javier (SP, Houston Astros)
Until last season, Javier had consistently excelled throughout his professional career. From 2015-19 in the minors, he posted a 2.22 ERA, 1.03 WHP, and 12.2 K/9 percentage. During his three years with the Astros from 2020 to 2022, the right-hander posted an impressive 3.05 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and 11.2 K/9 rate. Everything fell apart last season, resulting in a 4.56 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. His struggles were due to a loss of 1 mph on his fastball and a 9.1% drop in his strikeout rate. Wise coaches will monitor Javier's radar gun readings during spring training with the intention of attacking his declining ADP (161.8).
Reece Hoskins (1B, Milwaukee Brewers)
Like Diaz, Hoskins missed all of 2023 due to injury, but entered 2024 with no lingering health concerns. The 30-year-old joined the Brewers in January and should develop as a power hitter at home run-heavy Miller Park. A healthy Hoskins has proven to be a 30 home run player, giving managers a good guideline on what to expect in 2024, as he has a slightly negative impact on fantasy teams' batting average.
