F1 pre-season testing: Red Bull makes statement in Bahrain, but can it be canceled in 2024?

The 2024 F1 season looks poised to start the way it ended last time, with Max Verstappen and Red Bull unable to reach the front of the field.

That appears to have been the lesson learned from three days of pre-season testing in Bahrain this week.

Verstappen and his stunning new RB20 car looked every bit as commanding as the Dutchman did with his record-setting predecessor last year.

Of course, as the old F1 adage goes, it's just a test.

Times mean nothing as it is very difficult to make a decision as there are many variables involved such as fuel load, road conditions, tires, etc.

Yes, to a certain extent. As usual, the headline lap time list pointed out some obvious inconsistencies and impossibilities.

For example, Chou Guanyu's Sauber finished the final day of testing with the third fastest time. He would be as surprised as anyone if the Chinese were able to play in Saturday's opening match in Bahrain next Friday.

But just like this time last year, there was little doubt about Verstappen and Red Bull's superiority. Even on the final day's time list, this was more or less obvious if you looked at it superficially.

Ferrari's Charles Leclerc was fastest, followed closely by George Russell's Mercedes, with Verstappen fourth.

However, Leclerc, Russell and even Zhou used softer C4 tires to beat Verstappen's time, while Verstappen was running slower, harder C3s.

Leclerc's margin of defeating Verstappen was smaller than the performance offset between the two types of tires. And when comparing the times recorded in C3, Verstappen was the fastest. And you're willing to bet on the fact that he wasn't running on a qualifying-style light fuel load.

Not only that, but none of Verstappen's rivals bothered to participate in the usual test cliché that it's impossible to determine where everyone is.

Leclerc said: “Red Bull are still in front. They have a very good car this year as well. How far in front they are is yet to be confirmed, but for now they seem to be in front, yeah ” he said.

Russell's Mercedes teammate Lewis Hamilton said: “I felt like the car was a lot more fun to drive.'' [than last year]. There's still time to find out. Red Bull is obviously far away, but it's a good platform to work on this year.”

McLaren's Lando Norris, whose team improved the most last season after moving from mid-season to front with an upgrade midway through the season, said, “We're in a good position. We had a decent car at the end of last season, but… , we said,” he said. He has definitely taken a step in the right direction, but he is still far behind Red Bull and Ferrari. ”

What did the drivers see that wasn't reflected in the headline lap times? First, Verstappen was effortlessly fast every time he took to the track. The car looks stable, predictable and fast above all else. Just like last year.

And the above quote was also uttered before the final afternoon, when Verstappen and Red Bull seemed to have all doubts cleared.

He believed his rivals were doing a mock first stint in a Grand Prix at the same time as many other cars were doing the same, including Leclerc's Ferrari, Fernando Alonso's Aston Martin and Oscar Piastri's McLaren. I went to the race.

Race simulation is the best way to judge your real-world pace, as it's the only chance you'll get to know approximately how much fuel your car has.

When Leclerc started running, he was actually slightly faster than Verstappen, but not for long. And as tire deterioration affected Ferrari more severely, by the end of the first stint Red Bull was on average about 0.4 to 0.5 seconds faster per lap.

Alonso ran almost evenly with Leclerc, but Piastri struggled.

Rival teams were saddened by Verstappen's performance. One senior official described it as “brutally fast.”

In fact, many teams look like they've taken a step forward from last year. Ferrari, Mercedes and Aston Martin all look great on the track in their own way.

But McLaren team principal Andrea Stella said: “It seems like one car has taken a big step forward. Unfortunately, the car that was already the fastest last year.”

Even before the new cars started arriving earlier this month, it was expected that Red Bull would start the season in first place again.

The theory was that last year's car was so fast that they could stop development early and still keep winning, allowing them to focus more effort on their new car for 2024.

And when the RB20 arrived last week, it was clear where all that extra work went. The car was packed with innovative technology, including vertical sidepod air inlets and large, wide tunnels extending rearward from the sides of the cockpit.

When the cover was ripped open during testing and we were able to see even more of the car, even more notable features were revealed.

As it turned out, in addition to the new vertical cooling inlets, there were also horizontal cooling inlets, but they were secreted under the cut-out top of the sidepods, under which there was even more space for the downforce-generating air. It's open.

Viewed from above, the rear tunnel forms a kind of bathtub shape reminiscent of the one Ferrari used on its 2022 car to reduce drag.

Even to the untrained eye, the car looks like a work of art, another masterpiece from the team led by Red Bull's chief technical officer Adrian Newey, F1's greatest designer ever.

Experts seem to take a similar view.

“When you look at the car, you have to say, 'Wow!' They certainly decided to change some of the geometry that made this car such a success last year,” said Stella, who is an engineer himself. He had courage,” he said.

“Last year, they were able to enjoy such an advantage and it gave them the confidence to take risks in terms of timelines, because taking risks early on to see if it works. This is because we were able to do so.”

Stella pointed out that the best of Red Bull is probably yet to be seen.

“There's a lot going on in these regulations down to the millimeter, and there's a lot going on out of sight between the car and the ground,” he said.

“So what we can actually see is [is] They're not necessarily the most influential in terms of what they've pushed forward. ”

It's not so easy to rank the teams behind Red Bull. This is because the following group appears to be approaching again.

Both Ferrari and Mercedes had a lot of work to do to improve last year's Wiful cars, and both appear to have succeeded.

“Drivability is where we've been focusing the most and we struggled like crazy last year,” Leclerc said. “Drivability seems to be better this year.”

“But an easy car to drive doesn't necessarily mean a competitive car. That's why we keep this in mind as Red Bull continues to be a reference and we have a lot of work to do. We need to keep working on it.”

“We certainly feel like it's a step in the right direction, but we can't hide the fact that our competitors have done a really great job,” Russell said.

“With the performance that Red Bull showed last year, we knew we had a mountain to climb. The car has a good feel to drive. Red Bull seems to have done a really great job and they are favorites.”

If I had to guess where next weekend's first race would be after Red Bull, the next best would be Ferrari and Mercedes, but Ferrari probably has the edge in the battle with its one-lap qualifying pace. Dew.

Aston Martin appears to be right behind, but the McLaren appears to have slipped a bit, at least on the evidence from testing at this circuit.

Then Red Bull's rebranded second-team RB showed promise, as did Williams in the hands of Alex Albon.

Alpine's form remains difficult to read in testing, but it is unlikely to trouble the top five teams, while Sauber and Haas are likely to rise to the back of the pack once again.

But that's just the impression formed over three days at one circuit. Everyone agrees that the field behind Red Bull looks crowded once again, which will increase unpredictability over 24 races at 24 different tracks.

This is the longest season in history and it will feel that way if Verstappen and Red Bull are as good as they seem.