Get ready to close the hatch. Experts predict the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season will be “very active.”
In a 44-page report released Thursday, researchers at Colorado State University's Tropical Meteorology Project wrote: “We expect the probability of a major hurricane to make landfall on the continental U.S. coastline and the Caribbean Sea to be much higher than average. “
Activity for the 2024 season will be significantly higher than the 1991-2020 average, with researchers predicting 23 named storms and 115 named storm days. Last year, there were 14.4 average storm days and 69.4 named storm days.
Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on June 1st and ends on November 30th. Most activity occurs between his mid-August and his mid-October. Hurricane activity tends to peak in mid-September, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
warm sea surface temperature Combined with a warm tropical Atlantic Ocean and further intensified by La Niña, we expect a very active period. La Niña phenomenon These weather conditions, expected to arrive this summer, will reduce vertical wind shear and increase conditions favorable for hurricanes.
“The probability of a major hurricane making landfall in the United States and the Caribbean is estimated to be well above the long-term average, with the probability jumping from more than 10% to nearly 20% in some regions,” the researchers wrote. “There is,” he said.
The researchers predicted that the chances were 62%. Category 3, 4, or 5 Hurricanes hit the continental U.S. coastline, 43% more than expected on average.
Along the East Coast, including the Florida peninsula, the odds jumped from 21% to 34%. This was his average probability in 2020 from 1880. Growth rates were even higher along the Gulf Coast and in the Florida Panhandle. Researchers predict the odds in this area to be 42%, up from an average of 27% a year ago.
Seasonal forecast predictions are based on statistical and dynamic models that, according to the researchers, “may fail after several years.”
This year's hurricane season What will follow in 2023 will be globally warmest year on record. Last year, water temperatures were higher and there was more hurricane activity than usual.
