Cryptocurrency gamblers are divided on the probability of approval

Crypto gamblers appear to be divided on the future timeline and probability that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will agree to identify an Ethereum ETF. Just like the Bitcoin ETF In January.

Polymarket Insights on Spot ETH ETF

There is also speculation that the agency will approve it. Spot Ethereum ETF However, charts from Polymarket, a popular prediction market, show that the probability of receiving a positive decision from the SEC by the proposed date is less than 50%.

To be precise, the probability of gaining approval by the next two months is currently 45% per crypto gambling market.

This percentage and the trend of the chart confirm that crypto enthusiasts are double-minded and indicate that they are not positive about the SEC granting filers' requests. As of January 10, the day before the Spot Bitcoin ETF went public, enthusiasm and optimism for the approval of the Spot Ethereum ETF was growing. At that time, the chance of approval was over 80%.

Since then, the odds have fluctuated a bit and have gradually declined to where they are now. Some experts have shared their thoughts on the possibility of approval in the coming months. Some of these experts had some confidence in the spot approval of the Ethereum ETF.

Deceptive optimism regarding the approval of Spot Ethereum ETF

Contrary to the pessimism expressed by Polymarket, Bloomberg senior ETF analyst James Seifert estimates the Ethereum ETF's spot return to be 60%. Approved in May. As the SEC began deferring decisions on filers' individual requests; grayscale investment and black rockanalysts began reconsidering their predictions.

By February, Bernstein analysts Gautam Chughani and Mahika Sapura had already Probability 50% Ethereum investment vehicles are expected to enter the market as early as May.

This clearly shows how optimism for the approval of the Spot Ethereum ETF has diminished with time and market realities. People like Jim Cramer, host of CNBC's Mad Money, still With a high probability Approval will come quickly.

However, Cramer's speculation was based on the huge success the Spot Bitcoin ETF has recorded.

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Benjamin Godfrey is a blockchain enthusiast and journalist who enjoys writing about the real-world applications of blockchain technology and the innovations driving public acceptance and global integration of emerging technologies. His desire to educate people about cryptocurrencies has inspired his contributions to well-known blockchain-based media and sites. Benjamin Godfrey loves sports and farming.please follow him twitterLinkedIn

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