CNN
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As the first criminal indictment against a former US president begins, only 13% of people nationwide feel President Donald Trump is being treated the same as other criminal defendants, according to research conducted by SSRS. This is revealed in a new CNN poll. Much of the country was divided over whether he was being treated more harshly (34%) or more leniently (34%) than other defendants.
The poll, which began a few days after the jury selection phase of the trial began on April 15, found that Americans who said they were confident the jurors selected for the case would reach a fair verdict It was found that only 44% of people are skeptical about it and 56% are skeptical about it. A fair result awaits. More people say Trump's conduct during the trial so far was inappropriate (42%) than appropriate (25%), and about a third said they didn't hear enough of what he said.
This assessment of how things are going in court comes as charges in the ongoing trial show that business records were used to cover up hush money payments to adult film actress Stormy Daniels ahead of the 2016 election. The announcement comes as a growing number of Americans say they are connected to allegations of tampering with . Even if that were true, it has no bearing on his suitability for the presidency (45% now say so, compared to 39% before he was nominated as the Republican presidential nominee last summer). .
Roughly three-quarters of voters who currently support Trump against President Joe Biden in the 2024 election say they will continue to support him even if convicted, while Trump 24% of supporters said they might reconsider their support if convicted. Trump has been charged in four separate cases, but the survey question asked about his convictions without specifying his charges. The group that might reconsider, amounting to about 12% of all voters registered at the polls, is likely to find him guilty in any of the four trials he could face between now and Election Day. If received, it would be more than enough to make a difference in a close game.
The political impact of a possible conviction is difficult to predict, but some insight can be gained by looking at the characteristics of Trump supporters who say they might reconsider. They tend to be younger than other Trump supporters (64% under 50, compared to 37% of those who would not reconsider) and less likely to be white (people of color, compared to 17% of those who would not reconsider). (49%) are more likely to report voting for Biden in 2020 (20% said they supported Biden in 2020 compared to 6% who would not reconsider) and are more likely to report voting for Biden in 2020 (20% said they supported Biden in 2020 compared to 6% who would not reconsider) He is likely to admit that he legitimately received enough votes to win. 4 years ago (63% vs. 22% who would not reconsider). They are also more likely to be politically independent (49% vs. 31%) and ideologically moderate (50% vs. 38%).
In short, they tend to be members of a group that typically leans Democratic, but where Biden is trailing in early polling against Trump. But Trump supporters who may reconsider are not necessarily guaranteed to support Biden if Trump is convicted: Another question earlier in the poll showed they would support Biden. When asked whether they would consider supporting Biden, 81% of Trump supporters said they might reconsider supporting Biden. If he is convicted, they say there is no chance they will vote for the current president.
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More broadly, a majority of Americans continue to say that the accusations in each of the four lawsuits against Trump, if true, cast at least some degree of doubt over his fitness to serve as president. More than 4 in 10 people overall said that, if true, it would be important to note that the Trump has responded that any charges related to his role should disqualify him from the presidential election. Completely presidential.
However, views on the connection between this incident and Trump's presidential qualifications appear to be changing somewhat. While an increasing number of hush money charges are unrelated to his fitness to serve as president, charges related to efforts to overturn the 2020 election and charges related to classified documents found in President Trump's home are There has also been a slight increase in the proportion of respondents who say that it has nothing to do with their eligibility as a government official. If they prove true, is he fit to serve as president? (37% now say each of the charges are unrelated, up from 33% last summer).
The changes in these three cases occur primarily between independents who lean toward the Republican Party and independents who lean toward neither party. Partisans' impressions about how important each incident is to Trump's suitability for the presidency remain fairly fixed, with Democratic-leaning independents showing little change. Considering the hush money charges, about three-quarters of Republicans say it doesn't matter now, about the same as last summer, and about 13% among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents. Relatively stable. But among Republican-leaning independents, the percentage claiming charges unrelated to President Trump's fitness rose from 57% to 73%, and the percentage of true independents saying the same rose from 29% to 45%. %.
Given the current trial, most Americans feel that Trump acted at least unethically, but fewer are convinced that his actions were criminal: about a third 1% said Trump's conduct related to business records regarding hush money payments was illegal (33%), and an additional 33% said it was unethical, but not illegal. there is no. Overall, only 12% said he did nothing wrong in the incident. Approximately 1 in 5 people, or 21%, said they were unsure.
These views are similar to how Americans felt about the case shortly after the charges were announced last spring. At the time, 37% said Trump's actions regarding the payments to Stormy Daniels were illegal, 33% said they were unethical, and 10% said Trump did nothing wrong.
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Views on the trial and its likely outcome are divided along party lines, but independents are particularly focused on the trial itself.
A majority of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents say Trump is treated more leniently than other defendants in the criminal justice system (61%), while Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say Trump is treated more leniently than other defendants (61%). A majority (67%) say they are treated more harshly than other defendants. Independents who lean toward neither party think his treatment will be more lenient (27%) than harsher (15%).
Lack of confidence that selected juries will deliver a fair verdict is greatest among Republicans and Republican-leaning Americans (37% say they have no confidence at all), but less confident among Democrats and Democratic-leaning Americans. 40% of respondents say they have little or no confidence. Confidence in the jury's ability to reach a fair verdict.
A majority of Democratic-leaning Americans say Trump's actions during the trial so far were inappropriate (72%), but Republicans have not been quick to come to his defense. Among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, only 46% say Trump's actions were appropriate, 15% say they were inappropriate, and 39% say he hasn't been listened to enough.
Overall, about half of Americans (49%) say they follow news about trials very or somewhat closely, with Democratic-leaning Americans most likely to follow (58 %), followed by Republican adults (46%). %), and neutral independents (35%) are the least attentive.
The CNN poll was conducted by SSRS between April 18 and April 23 among a national random sample of 1,212 adults drawn from a probability-based panel. The survey was conducted online or over the phone with a live interviewer. Results across all samples have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
CNN's Ariel Edwards-Levy and Ed Wu contributed to this article.
