The National Association for Business Economics updates its forecasts quarterly, and compared to its forecast late last year, the group's new February outlook calls for faster economic growth, twice as much job growth, and a lower unemployment rate. I'm looking for a decline.
The association has revised up its growth forecast for this year, citing strong consumer spending, investment in businesses and housing, and government infrastructure spending.
Marvin Jebaraj, an economist at the University of Arkansas who chairs the committee, said the use of the word “recession” is fading.
“Over the past few quarters, the prospects for a recession seem to have gotten smaller and the prospects for a soft landing to be bigger. So now three-quarters of our panellists expect a soft landing,” he said.
Robert Frick, an economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, agreed that the economy looks strong in 2024. Expenses are good. ”
However, when I meet credit union employees who are on the front lines of helping members with cash-strapped funds, I hear a different story.
“Many low-income people are really suffering from inflation,” he said. “There will be a lot of defaults this year.”
He expects most of these will be defaults on high-interest credit cards and car loans.
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