SAGINAW, Mich. (AP) — Harley Coleman Jr.'s parents were drawn to Michigan from the South by the promise of middle-class jobs in the booming auto industry, which many Saginaw residents It's a common origin for African American families.
Mass layoffs that began in the late 20th century dramatically reduced Saginaw's population and economy, leading to a sharp rise in political turmoil throughout the city and surrounding area. This anxiety peaked in 2016 and reflects a trend driven by economic stress. many rust belt citieswhen the area voted Republican for the first time in decades and helped Donald Trump win the state.
“There was anxiety in so many places, in so many ways, and we just happened to have a candidate who was impatient enough to take advantage of that anxiety,” Coleman said. “There are still a lot of people who are worried, but they are being careful now.”
Turning Saginaw County blue again in 2020 by a margin of 303 votes contributed to Joe Biden's success in holding key “blue wall” states Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Both were critical factors in Trump's previous victory. Leaders of both parties say that without a win in Michigan, it will be nearly impossible for either presidential candidate to win the White House this year.
Biden, who visited Saginaw on Thursday to meet with supporters and volunteers, understands the importance.
“Our democracy is at stake,” Biden told a crowd of Saginaw City Council members who packed the front door. “I really think so.”
Afterward, Biden sat with his Michigan family at a local public golf course. As the campaign heats up, the president has been traveling around the country in intimate conversations with his family and small groups to discuss the policy issues that most impact their lives.
This visit was 2 day swing Elections began Wednesday through Wisconsin and Michigan as the president looks to gain momentum in his re-election campaign after his victory. Democratic nomination on Tuesday night.
“President Joe Biden knows there are places in America where he can tell his story to the people who need it, and Saginaw is a prime example of that,” said Pastor Coleman, who plans to support Biden's re-election bid. It's a great place,” he said. .
Saginaw, a Democratic stronghold, is surrounded by Republican-majority areas of the larger county. A microcosm of the entire state, Saginaw County is the only county in Michigan that voted for the winning presidential candidate in each of the last four elections. In that regard, it has become the go-to place for political consultants and media looking to take the temperature of the ultimate swing state on behalf of Macomb County, north of Detroit, which has been steadily sliding into the Republican camp.
The Saginaw area has many union voters, a demographic that Mr. Biden supports. targeted in his re-election campaign.he received multiple times Major union recognition Despite what many union leaders say, President Trump claims to be workers' choice. his first term showed that this is not the case.
The city of 44,000 people in the heart of the county is also home to a significant Black community, which makes up 46 percent of Saginaw residents.Activating this demographic could be crucial in November as the Biden campaign overcomes difficulties. in other areas of the state.
“I think the president recognizes the importance of going into diverse communities like Saginaw and talking to people and spending face-to-face time,” Michigan Democratic Party Chairwoman LaVora Burns said.
More than 100,000 Democratic voters in Michigan chose to vote “irresponsibly” in the state's Feb. 27 primary in line with what activists have been promoting. protest by voting against Biden's response to the war in Gaza.Both Biden's top advisers motion And that White HouseThey have been making frequent trips to Dearborn, a suburb of Detroit and other areas with the highest concentration of Arab Americans in the nation, in recent months as part of an effort to win back areas that were reliably Democratic.
But some in the Michigan Democratic Party have warned in recent weeks that the party is overlooking the restlessness of a very large and politically influential group of black voters.
Biden's support among black voters has declined significantly since 91% of black voters nationwide supported him four years ago, when he formed a winning coalition, according to AP VoteCast.
The latest poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research shows his approval rating among black adults stands at 42%, a significant drop from his first year in office.Biden is also doing his best. give energy Black voters in key battleground states Georgia, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.
Wayne County Executive Warren Evans was among the 13% of Democratic voters who voted as an “independent” in Michigan's primary, but for reasons different from those pushed by activists. He said he withheld his support from the Michigan Democratic Party because he contends it is “not doing what it needs to do to involve a significant portion of the African American community.”
“I don't think these programs and things that are being talked about are trickling down to us,” Evans said. “We don't feel invested in that. We don't feel that in the philosophical stuff that you often hear in speeches.”
Saginaw resident Jeffrey Bulls echoed Evans' sentiments, choosing not to vote at all in the state's primary election rather than vote “irresponsibly.” Mr. Bulls, who used to vote Democratic, said Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump have proven to be “pretty much the same.” He said he would “probably miss the top spot” on the November ballot.
“If you look around our community, 10, 20, 30 years later, the same epidemics are here, the same unemployment is here, the same problems are here,” Bulls said. “Nothing has changed. After a while it starts to click and then it gets cynical.”
Saginaw's poverty rate is nearly 35 percent, more than double the Michigan average of 13 percent, according to the latest U.S. Census data. Although the county's unemployment rate has steadily declined since Biden first took office, the city's median income is also half the state average.
Black voters are unlikely to support President Trump in significant numbers in November, but a lack of turnout could be fatal to Biden's re-election campaign. In 2016, Trump won Michigan by less than 11,000 votes, due in part to lower turnout in majority-black areas like Detroit's Wayne County. , where Hillary Clinton received far fewer votes than Barack Obama in the last election.
Mr. Biden won back much of that support four years ago when he defeated Mr. Trump in Michigan by 154,000 votes, but there is work to be done. In Detroit, where nearly 78% of the population is black, turnout in the Feb. 27 primary was 12%, nearly half of the statewide turnout of 23%.
Mr. Biden's team is acutely aware of the backlash his reelection has faced in certain minority communities in Michigan. Biden's visit Thursday was his second in six weeks, as his team has established more than 15 field offices across Michigan, including Saginaw.
Biden-Harris Michigan senior adviser Eddie McDonald said in a statement that the campaign is “working to ensure Black Michiganders are aware of all the promises made and kept by Mr. Biden.” said. He added that campaigns “don't take a single voter for granted, especially when the stakes are this high.”
“The fundamental choice in this election is between Joe Biden, who is fighting to improve the lives of Black voters, and Donald Trump, who is trying to increase black unemployment, strip health care access, and cut funding for HBCUs. “It's either Trump,” McDonald said. “The difference is clear, and we're going to make sure Michiganders know it.”
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Associated Press writer Will Weissert contributed reporting.
