Gulf states are grappling with a growing Middle East conflict as hostilities between Iran and Israel threaten ambitious plans to rebuild the country's security and economy.
Leaders of the resource-rich Gulf monarchies engaged in rapid diplomacy after Iran's drone and missile attacks on Israel last weekend raised fears of a regional conflagration.
These desert countries are located across the Gulf from Iran and are at the doorstep of the latest crisis after months of tensions caused by the Israeli-Hamas war in the Gaza Strip.
U.S. military facilities are scattered across six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, and both Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have suffered attacks on oil facilities in the past by Yemen's Iranian-backed Houthi rebels. confronting.
Andreas Krieg, a Middle East analyst at King's College London, said there is a “general recognition” in the Gulf that conflict is bad for business and that conflict can now be avoided at almost any cost. said that they are sharing.
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On Monday, Qatar's Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani spoke with the Iranian president about “the need to reduce all forms of escalation and avoid the spread of conflict in the region,” the official Qatar News Agency reported. Ta.
And on Sunday, UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed met with the emir of Qatar and the kings of Jordan and Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia's de facto leader Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman met with Iraq's prime minister, state media reported. Ta.
The Saudi foreign minister met with the Iranian foreign minister, and the Saudi defense minister held discussions with the US foreign minister.
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Much is at stake for the wealthy, U.S.-friendly Gulf states. Expensive economic diversification plans aimed at securing a post-fossil fuel future depend on a peaceful environment for business and tourism.
Saudi Arabia, the biggest oil exporter, is the biggest spender, pledging hundreds of billions of dollars for new cities and leisure facilities as part of Crown Prince Mohammed's flagship economic transformation plan, Vision 2030.
Ali Shihabi, a Saudi analyst close to the Royal Court in Riyadh, told AFP that “Saudi Arabia's first priority is to prevent the crisis from escalating,” underscoring the vulnerability of the Gulf.
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An attack on Iran would make Tehran “might want to retaliate against the GCC, given its proximity and abundance of difficult-to-defend targets.”
“Iran has just learned how difficult it is to target Israel, which is thousands of miles away, but the GCC, with its proximity and massive size compared to Israel, is a different story,” he added.
Advantages for Saudi Arabia include its influence over the United States, which has encouraged it to follow the UAE and Bahrain in recognizing Israel, and renewed ties with Iran, which resumed last year after a long break. be.
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The worst war in history in Gaza had already hampered U.S. efforts to broker normalization of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel.
Umer Karim, a researcher on Saudi diplomacy and politics at the University of Birmingham in the UK, said: “There is no doubt that Saudi Arabia will pressure the United States into a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and Israel not to respond to Iranian attacks.'' .
Meanwhile, Oman, which is close to Iran, remains an important intermediary.
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And Qatar has influence as it is home to al-Udeid, the largest U.S. military base in the region, Krieg said.
“When it comes to the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb,[Omanis]have deeper networks and are probably more effective intermediaries,” he said, referring to the strategic waterways in the Gulf and Red Sea. he said.
He said the U.S. hasn't given Gulf mediators “a good enough assessment of how important that relationship is to generating a response from Iran. I'd say we're still pretty cautious.” Told.
“Qatar is very particular about al-Udeid,” Krieg said, explaining that the Doha government “will continue to tell the United States that it cannot use its airspace or its bases to attack Iran.” did.
“That would make it very difficult for the United States to actually assist Israel in a potential attack inside Iran,” he added.
The US government has reaffirmed its “ironclad” support for Israel, but one American official said it would not participate in a potential Israeli counterattack against Iran.
According to Karim, if the situation worsens further, there will be no good options for the Gulf region.
“There is no doubt that the sooner this conflict ends, the better for all Gulf states,” he said.
“Conflicts are increasingly creating new regional balances of power…Israel with US support on one side, Iran and its proxies on the other, and Gulf states gaining status and political influence. Struggles for power.
“This kind of escalation puts them in a very difficult position because they don't want to take sides on either side, but they're going to be affected either way.”
