Adam Schultz/White House
President Joe Biden speaks with members of his national security team regarding the ongoing missile attack on Israel from Iran, Saturday, April 13, 2024, in the White House Situation Room. Some of the photos in this handout have been blurred by the source.
CNN
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For President Joe Biden, an attack on Israel originating from Iranian territory amounts to a scenario he has largely sought to avoid since the current Middle East conflict began.
This retaliation raises the risk of a broader regional conflict that could directly involve the United States as well as other countries.
And they have put Biden in the precarious position of once again pledging unwavering support for Israel while trying to prevent another conflagration from exploding with U.S. involvement.
What happens next is unknown. Immediately after the attack on Iran, American officials acknowledged that Iran was entering uncharted territory. One of the key question marks is how proxy forces could potentially join Iranian efforts to target Israel, adding a new layer of unpredictability. And as Israel's response plan is still being developed, Biden administration officials are expected to continue advising Israeli officials with containment in mind.
On Saturday night, Biden spoke by phone with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to weigh in on Saturday's victory as the US credits the Iranian attack as largely a failure and demonstrated Israel's superior military capabilities. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made it clear that the United States would not participate in Iran's military. There will be no offensive operations against Iran in response, a senior administration official told CNN.
But in the hours after the Iranian attack, it became clear that the president faced a tough challenge in keeping a lid on the escalation between Iran and Israel and preventing a full-scale regional war from erupting.
Israel will respond to an Iranian attack, but the scope of that response has not yet been determined, an Israeli official told CNN's Jeremy Diamond on Sunday.
The official said Israel had not yet decided whether to try to “break all the plates” or take more cautious action.
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant warned that the conflict with Iran is “not over yet.” The country's response options will be discussed in detail at Israel's wartime cabinet meeting on Sunday.
Hossein Salami, commander of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, warned that Iran would respond directly if Israel retaliated, citing a “new equation”.
Biden is also operating in the dangerous politics of an election year, giving great weight to future decisions. The Israeli-Hamas war that broke out on October 7 has hurt Biden at home, with his rejection of calls for a permanent ceasefire in the Gaza Strip hurting his support in key constituencies. .
One official said the ongoing nature of the attack was one of the reasons Biden made an emergency return to the White House from his Delaware beach house on Saturday afternoon, with the incident room equipped for real-time monitoring. It is said that it is a thing.
U.S. officials told CNN that they believed Saturday's Iranian attack on Israel was disproportionate to Israel's attack on Damascus, which triggered the retaliation.
That view has become a key element in discussions taking place throughout the day at the White House about next steps, especially as Mr. Biden seeks to prevent a full-scale regional conflict from erupting.
There is also a recognition that what Israel does in response will depend on a full damage assessment, including potential casualties, so the Biden administration's advice to Israel will depend on whether that situation will be a focus. He added that it depends on the
Immediately after Israel's attack on Syria, which killed Iran's top commanders, U.S. officials monitored and determined that Iran was preparing to launch a major attack on Israel. While the United States was in close consultation with Israel to try to figure out exactly when and where Iran would retaliate, administration officials said Iran was attempting to attack U.S. personnel or assets in Israel or in the region. The possibility has not been completely ruled out.
A senior government official said in the days leading up to Saturday's attack on Iran that the most likely “worst-case scenario” was a direct attack by Iran on Israel, erupting into conflict between the states that could lead to He said there was a high possibility of a military conflict. It's the beginning of a broader regional conflict that the United States has been trying to prevent since the Oct. 7 Hamas attack.
Despite current tensions with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over the Gaza war, Mr. Biden and his top officials have spent the past week trying to stay out of the light of day between the United States and Israel regarding Israel's defense against Iran.
Hours before Iran launched its attack, the U.S. defense secretary and national security adviser met with their Israeli counterparts and reiterated their support. And last week, Gen. Eric Kurilla, the commander of U.S. Central Command, traveled to Israel to discuss contingency plans with officials ahead of an expected attack.
Biden kept his promise on Friday that “the United States is committed to defending Israel,” and a defense official told CNN that the U.S. military successfully intercepted some Iranian missiles on Saturday.
Conversations about preparing for and coordinating a response to an attack on Iran also included implicit encouragement to the Israeli government not to allow the situation to spiral out of control if Iran's response was limited in nature. said officials familiar with the matter.
The United States also sends messages to Iran publicly and privately warning it of further escalation of the crisis, and tells its European and Arab allies to use their own influence against Iran to convey similar messages. I put pressure on him.
As Iran's plan to attack Israel became clearer, U.S. officials increasingly believed that Iran was not seeking direct conflict with the United States. Ahead of Saturday's drone strike by Iran, U.S. officials said they did not expect targets to include U.S. forces in the region.
This is a change from the early days of the conflict, when Iranian-backed militias regularly attacked U.S. forces in the Middle East, including an attack that killed three Americans in Jordan. Attacks by Iranian proxies subsided after the United States launched retaliatory strikes.
However, smoldering tensions between Iran and Israel have not yet eased. Without direct lines of communication between the two countries, the risk of miscalculation increases.
CNN's Oren Lieberman contributed reporting.
