(This is CNBC Pro's live coverage of Tuesday's analyst conference call and Wall Street chatter. Refresh every 20-30 minutes to see the latest posts.) Among the stocks analysts were talking about on Tuesday were a Latin American e-commerce giant and a solar power stock. Jefferies upgraded MercadoLibre to a buy recommendation and raised its price target on the stock. Meanwhile, Sunnova Energy was downgraded to neutral by Piper Sandler. Check out the latest conference call and chatter below. All times ET. 8:47 a.m.: JPMorgan remains bullish on Supermicro as AI investment cycle remains “early stage” Analyst Samik Chatterjee maintained his overweight rating on Supermicro Computer after a recent fireside chat with the company's chief financial officer at JPMorgan's latest annual Global TMC conference. Chatterjee highlighted the emerging artificial intelligence industry, Supermicro's large engineering employee base, and partners outside of Nvidia that bring new technologies and have a strong product pipeline. The company also boasts powerful rack capacity, with 40% of the racks planned to be liquid cooled. “Supermicro believes the industry is in the very early stages of an investment cycle/infrastructure upgrade cycle with regards to AI, with investments starting to pick up outside of the US, and in some cases by foreign governments,” Chatterjee said in a Monday note. “Furthermore, SMCI highlighted how the benefits of accelerated computing are pervasive in multiple areas, including drug analysis and weather forecasting, providing visibility into the sustainability of demand and refuting concerns that it may be a bubble.”Supermicro shares are up a whopping 218% this year. –Pia Singh8:32 a.m.: Deutsche Bank gives Rubrik a Buy ratingRubrik is poised to be a leader in cyber resilience, according to Deutsche Bank, a market that is becoming increasingly prevalent with ongoing ransomware attacks. Analyst Brad Zelnick initiated coverage of Rubrik with a “Buy” rating and said the company is leading the $13 billion backup and recovery software market by focusing on customer-facing data security applications. His $42 price target suggests the stock could rise 16.4%. The company, which went public in an IPO in April, has risen nearly 12.7% this month. Zelnick said in a Monday note that Rubrik targets a market worth $36 billion, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13% through 2028. “The opportunity is plentiful, and every anecdote suggests the company is doing this successfully with its technology and strong go-to-market capabilities,” the analyst said. “We expect ARR growth in the mid-20% range and profitability over the next few years, which we believe justifies a multiple somewhere between peers in high-growth security and storage software.” — Pia Singh 7:37 a.m.: Citi predicts upside as Gap earnings loom Gap is well-positioned to impress a skeptical Wall Street with its first-quarter results, Citi said. Analyst Paul Lejuez said in a client note that the company is likely to post better-than-expected profits in next week's earnings report and initiated a 30-day Positive Catalyst Watch on the retailer's stock. “Sentiment on GPS has been more mixed lately, and we believe the risk/reward is favorable on Q1 EPS,” the note said. The retailer's updated guidance should also signal it has costs under control, according to Lejuez. “We expect management to raise its Q2'24 EPS guidance to $1.40+ from $1.30-1.35 based on stronger growth.” [gross margin] (~75bps+ vs. 50bps+ before),” the note said. — Jesse Pound 6:49am: Citi raises Dell price target on growing AI market share Dell is shaping up to be a strong artificial intelligence stock, according to Citi Research. Asia Merchant maintained a buy rating and raised its price target by $45 to $170, suggesting the stock could be up 16.9% from Monday's close. The stock is up 90.1% this year. According to the analyst, hardware stocks have already outperformed the overall market this year. Merchant is optimistic that Dell can grab more share in the AI TAM (total addressable market), and the large OEM is “well positioned to gain further share as AI momentum accelerates across enterprise/GPU cloud providers,” she said. Other catalysts noted by the analyst are a slight recovery in general-purpose infrastructure and demand for flash-based storage products based on the growing complexity of AI workloads. “Competitive companies win” Dell's full-stack offering should signal it will enable bullish AI forecasts and grow market share with a diverse customer base on the earnings call, Merchant said of Dell. — Pia Singh 6:20 a.m.: Baird downgrades Toast, says risk/reward is 'balanced' after strong performance Baird thinks restaurant management software company Toast may be overvalued. Acknowledging the company's recent strong performance, analyst David Corning downgraded Toast shares to neutral and maintained a $28 price target. That means the stock, which has risen about 27.7% this year, could rise another 3.9%, Corning said. “We like the story as Toast is the fastest growing stock we cover (30%+ recurring GP growth over the past few quarters) and with the strong upside in recent months, we see risk/reward as balanced,” the analyst said in a Tuesday note.Corning expects EBITDA margin expansion and solid site count growth going forward, but expects a slowdown in the next quarter. Site count growth is expected to slow to about 20% to 25% by late 2024 or early 2025, compared with Toast's 32% to 27% year-over-year growth over the past five quarters, he said. TOST YTD mountain Toast YTD — Pia Singh 5:59 am: Morgan Stanley thinks Taiwan Semiconductor could benefit from NVIDIA's positive guidance NVIDIA's upcoming quarterly report could be a near-term boon for chipmaker Taiwan Semiconductor, according to Morgan Stanley. “As TSMC is the sole supplier of NVDA AI GPUs, we view NVDA's July quarter revenue guidance, to be released on May 22, as a key catalyst. If NVDA's guidance exceeds expectations, we expect TSMC shares to rise,” Chang wrote in a client note on Monday, adding that the market views NVIDIA's July revenue guidance as a key indicator of the strength of AI server supply chain shipments. Morgan Stanley believes NVIDIA's revenue outlook is likely to be in the range of $26 billion to $28 billion. Chain said TSMC could get 15% of its total revenue from AI-related demand in 2024, which could drive shares up 3% in a bull scenario and 1% in a base case. He added that he expects more production of NVIDIA's AI GPUs from TSMC in 2024. NVIDIA shares are up more than 9% this year, while TSMC is up 41.8%. — Pia Singh 5:47 a.m.: Piper Sandler Downgrades Sunnova Energy to Neutral, Predicts More Headwinds Piper Sandler has reverted to a wait-and-see stance on struggling commercial and residential solar company Sunnova Energy. Analyst Kaci Harrison downgraded the stock to neutral from overweight and cut her price target to $4.50 from $9, implying an 8.4% upside. The stock has fallen more than 72% this year. Harrison upgraded Sunnova in December because she thought lower interest rates could put solar installers in a good position this year, but she said rates have remained high, negatively impacting the company. Sunnova's fourth-quarter cash drought and looming maturities have raised questions about its trajectory, sending the stock lower. “To move forward (or backward) from here, we would need to have a firm view on interest rates or be confident in NOVA's ability to i) increase securitization revenues in a volatile interest rate environment, ii) reduce costs, and iii) respond in a way that results in favorable equity re-rating for the 26-year maturity,” Harrison wrote in a note on Monday. “We do not have the necessary confidence on this matter, so we are downgrading NOVA's rating.” Harrison added that he expects a more aggressive and comprehensive strategic update from Sunnova, including job cuts and downsizing to grow cash, that could ease market concerns. — Pia Singh 5:47 a.m.: Jefferies upgrades MercadoLibre to Buy MercadoLibre's strong 2024 performance could be just the beginning of good times for the company, according to Jefferies. Analyst Alex Wright upgraded the Latin American e-commerce giant to Buy from Hold.He also raised his price target to $2,100 from $1,400, suggesting an upside of about 20% over the next 12 months. “MercadoLibre has established itself as a clear winner in e-commerce and should benefit from continued rising penetration as well as further improvements in profitability and profitability, including from economies of scale in advertising and logistics,” Wright wrote in a client note on Monday. The analyst also raised his revenue forecasts for 2024 and 2025 by 10% and 15%, respectively. The stock has been surging, up more than 13% year to date and is up 36% over the past 12 months. MELI YTD Mountain MELI YTD — Fred Imbert
