Global demand for air cargo will increase in May 2024 due to expanding trade, rapid growth in e-commerce and capacity constraints in maritime transport, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) said on Wednesday.
Total demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometres, increased by 14.7% compared to May 2023 levels (international flights were up 15.5%). This marks the sixth consecutive month of double-digit growth year-on-year.
Capacity, measured in available cargo tonne kilometres (ACTK), increased by 6.7% compared to May 2023 (10.2% for international operations).
“Air freight demand rose sharply across all regions in May. The sector benefited from stronger trade, surging e-commerce and capacity constraints in ocean shipping. Purchasing managers are optimistic about future growth and the outlook remains broadly positive.
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“But it could suffer some blow as the United States imposes tougher conditions on e-commerce deliveries from China. Increased costs and transit times for packages under $800 could alienate US consumers and pose a major challenge to growth of the world's largest trade route between Asia and North America,” IATA Director General Willie Walsh said.
There are a few factors to consider in your operating environment:
The Purchasing Managers' Indicators (PMIs) for global manufacturing production and new export orders showed expansion in May (52.6 and 50.4 respectively).
Industrial production and global cross-border trade increased month-on-month in April (0.5% and 1.5%, respectively).
Inflation figures were mixed in May. Inflation in the EU and Japan fell to 2.7% and 2.8%, respectively, while in the US it rose to 3.3%. In contrast, China's inflation remained close to zero (0.3%). This reflects weak domestic demand due to high unemployment, sluggish income growth and the crisis in the real estate sector, a trend that has persisted since 2023.
African airlines performed best of all regions with air cargo demand increasing 18.4% year-on-year in May. Demand in the Africa-Asia market was the best performing of all trade routes with a 40.6% increase compared to May 2023. Capacity in May increased 21.4% year-on-year.
European airlines reported that air cargo demand in May increased 17.2% year-on-year. Intra-European air cargo increased 25.6% compared to May 2023, marking the fifth consecutive month of double-digit annual growth. Demand on Europe-Middle East routes increased 33.8%. Capacity in May increased 11.9% year-on-year.
Middle Eastern airlines reported that air cargo demand in May increased 15.3% year-on-year. As mentioned above, the Middle East & Europe market posted a particularly strong annual growth rate of 33.8%, outperforming the Middle East & Asia market which grew 18.6% year-on-year. Capacity in May increased 2.7% year-on-year.
