Growth stages of Taobao towns
As shown in Fig. 1, with 2009 as the cut-off point, the Taobao platform focused on urban development before then, while it gradually began to focus on the development of rural e-commerce thereafter. Since 2009, when three Taobao villages were identified, the scale of Taobao villages’ development has gradually stabilized, and the operation mechanism has been improved, laying a solid foundation for the formation and development of Taobao towns and providing a development path to be learned from. With 2017, and 2019 as the time node, the development history of Taobao towns can be roughly divided into the following three stages.
The development of Taobao towns has gone through stages of inception, rapid growth, steady growth, and now into the current phase of lean development.
The first is the explosive growth stage from 2014 to 2016: these two years were the stage when the country took rural e-commerce as a strategic industry, providing full-factor support in various fields such as rural inclusive finance, hometown innovation and entrepreneurship, e-commerce talent training, logistics park planning, mobile hardware facilities, and standardized management of market rules, which provided a fertile ground for the development of rural e-commerce. Numerically, the relatively low certification threshold at the early stage of development has led to the rapid growth of Taobao towns and the concentration of distribution areas, which has played a good leading role in the subsequent development of rural e-commerce.
The second is the steady growth stage from 2017 to 2018, this stage is “from quantity to quality” of the starting stage. In the agricultural supply-side reform at the peak, Alibaba’s platform to create several high-quality industries, the promotion of the “Internet plus agriculture” model, improve the e-commerce ecosystem, according to local conditions to innovate special industries, rooted in local reality to create high-quality products, to overcome homogeneous competition, emphasizing the “quality” and weaken the “quantity”, so the development of Taobao towns at this stage is moving forward smoothly.
The third is the lean development stage from 2019 to 2021. In 2019, the Alibaba platform updated the identification criteria of Taobao towns, from only focusing on the number of Taobao villages’ clusters to focusing on the entire town’s e-commerce transaction scale, i.e., in the original requirement of the number of Taobao villages in the township or street is greater than or equal to three, GMV and the number of active outlets are also included in the identification system. With more comprehensive and scientific policy changes, the Alibaba platform brings new opportunities and chances for the development of Taobao towns and also provides the possibility to promote the upgrading of rural e-commerce forms. Rural e-commerce is a “marginal revolution” initiated by “marginal people” in “marginal location” and “marginal products”. The triple marginal attributes make the rise and prosperity of Taobao villages full of tension (Ali Research, 2019: 18). With the accumulation of early development experience, several mature industrial chains and development models have been formed, with the increment expanding and the stock upgrading, forming the current rural economic situation. At present, it is in a critical stage of transformation and development. It is the key issue to give full play to its economic driving role and serve the development of all areas of the country.
Spatial distribution characteristics of Taobao towns
Spatial evolutionary characteristics
The overview of the study area is shown in Fig. 2. Referring to the Ali Research Institute’s classification of Taobao villages’ clusters, the number of Taobao towns in the province reaches or exceeds 10, which is called “Taobao town clusters”; the number reaches or exceeds 30, which is called “large Taobao town cluster”; the number reaches or exceeds 100, which is called “super large Taobao town cluster”.
Displays the spatial location of the study area.
The spatial distribution map of Taobao towns from 2014 to 2021 is shown in Fig. 3. From the overall spatial characteristics, the regional differences in the distribution of Taobao towns in China are obvious, with more in the east and less in the west, less in the north and more in the south, gradually forming a “T-shaped and three-centers” spatial pattern with gradient decline from southeast to northwest. That is to say, it interlinks the coastal, central, and western regions in a contiguous “T-shaped” framework; the Pearl River Delta, the Yangtze River Delta, and the Bohai Sea city cluster are the “three centers”. This spatial pattern overlaps with the key areas of China’s coastal development, the rise of central China, and western development policies, and is conducive to exploring a new mechanism of regional linkage and coordinated development (Fang, 2020). Among them, it is worth noting that the central area is developing rapidly, including the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle and the central plains economic area (CPER), both in terms of the distribution and quantity of Taobao towns have an obvious growth trend, gradually narrowing the gap with the eastern area. At the same time, this also indicates that the future development direction of rural e-commerce will be the reverse extension from the coast to the interior. With the improvement of the transportation network and the digital economy’s universal scope and depth of vertical and horizontal extension, the central and western inland areas will become the new growth pole, breaking the traditional geographical and natural constraints, playing their advantages, and expanding the spatial distribution of Taobao towns.
The Taobao towns in China exhibit a “T-shaped and three-center” spatial pattern, with a decreasing gradient from southeast to northwest.
In the examination of the size structure of Taobao towns across China, a discernible pyramid-type distribution model emerges. This model is characterized by provinces harboring between 0 and 10 Taobao towns forming the broad base of the pyramid, while those boasting more than 100 Taobao towns are positioned at its apex, where town density is markedly sparse. Such a distribution paradigm is reminiscent of nascent stages in the evolution of emergent phenomena or industries, signaling geographic disparities alongside immense prospects for subsequent expansion.
In the early stage of Taobao town development, those provinces at the bottom of the pyramid will actively learn and absorb the successful experiences and business models of those fast-growing Taobao towns, and apply them to their own Taobao towns to cultivate and develop them according to local conditions. At the same time, they have grasped the strong support of national policies for rural e-commerce and new urbanization and effectively enhanced the overall scale and competitiveness of Taobao towns in the region by continuously improving infrastructure, optimizing resource allocation, and improving network coverage and service capacity. From 2014 to 2017, with the popularisation and deepening of e-commerce, the number of Taobao towns showed a steady upward trend and gradually expanded from the initially developed eastern coastal regions to the central and western regions and the inland less-developed regions, which fully reflected the strong vitality and wide adaptability of e-commerce as a new type of industry. After entering 2018, the number of Taobao towns has seen a significant jump in growth, not only the total amount of surge but also the rapid expansion of the geographical distribution, almost all over the country. The rise of Taobao towns, both in terms of the overall development history and within individual provincial administrative units, has followed this law of from few to many, from points to networks, forming a positive cycle of continuous accumulation and reinforcement.
In particular, it is worth mentioning that regions such as Tibet Autonomous Region, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, and Hainan Province, despite the challenges they faced in the development of Taobao towns due to natural geographical conditions, lagging development of traditional markets and low-level of rural informatization, were able to find an alternative way to make use of the rich local ethnic minority cultures and unique product resources, breaking down geographical barriers through the Internet and e-commerce platforms, and bringing the original Taobao towns to a new level of development. In 2020, these regions finally achieved a historic breakthrough in the construction of Taobao towns from scratch, followed by a rapid growth rate in 2021, showing a strong momentum of development. Anticipating the future trajectory, these regions are poised to ascend as high-growth Taobao towns in the ensuing phase, leveraging their distinctive resource endowments and latecomer advantages. Such advancements are primed to catalyze the continued expansion of rural e-commerce development in China, concurrently bolstering the execution of the rural revitalization strategy.
Spatial clustering characteristics
To determine the precise degree of aggregation, the data of Taobao towns from 2014 to 2021 are projected and transformed in ArcGIS, and the spatial autocorrelation analysis is carried out. Constraints posed by the limited spatial extent of county units and the finite number of Taobao towns hinder the visually intuitive representation of their distribution characteristics in graphical form. Therefore, we summarize the point data of Taobao towns in the city and count the quantity distribution in all cities nationwide for observation.
As shown in Table 3, the p-value of the Global Moran’s I index in 2021 is less than 0.01, i.e., the confidence level of this data is higher than 99%, indicating that the number of Taobao towns is positively correlated with their spatial aggregation. At the same time, the General G observation is also much higher than the expected value, indicating that China’s Taobao towns in 2021 show high-value clustering characteristics in space. It can be seen that Taobao towns are at the early stage of development with strong momentum and initial prototypes of industrial agglomeration.
In addition, to explore the spatial heterogeneity of Taobao town distribution, ArcGIS is used to conduct LISA analysis on the spatial distribution in 2021. As shown in Fig. 4, Low-High outliers, i.e., low-value surrounded by high-value areas, which usually lag behind the surrounding areas in development, should be classified as a typical heterogeneous area. From the accelerated growth rate of the number of Taobao towns in 2018, the scope of the Low-High outliers has also gradually increased, with a patchy distribution in the central and northeastern areas. This is because of the limitation of geographical location, which makes the development speed of coastal areas faster than that of inland areas. As a result, the inland areas are dotted with Low-Low clusters. In terms of large-scale, standardized, and specialized production, there is still much room for development compared with the “cradle of e-commerce” areas like Zhejiang Province, which have certain first-mover advantages. The existence of Low-High outliers indicates that Taobao towns’ development has a hollow imbalance, high-level areas gradually strong combination, and low-level areas slow development or even disappear, how to overcome the siphoning effect while expanding the scope of the diffusion effect, to achieve the common prosperity between Taobao towns, this problem needs to be solved.
It demonstrates the local spatial agglomeration characteristics of Taobao towns in China, with the main types including L–H and H–H.
Spatial distribution trend
For the analysis of the diffusion trend of Taobao towns, the spatial data of Taobao towns in 2015, 2018, and 2021 are selected for the standard deviation ellipse analysis, and the parameter “1_STANDARD_DEVIATION” is chosen for the analysis because all the data had a spatial normal distribution with an obvious aggregation trend (See Fig. 5). The results show that the coordinates of the center of the standard deviation ellipse change from 118.53°E, 30.09°N to 117.58°E, 29.56°N until it shifts to 116.50°E, 31.23°N in 2021. The long semi-axis and short semi-axis increase year by year, the area and perimeter of the generated ellipse increase year by year, and the rotation angle θ changes from −170.29° to 4.04°. The conclusions are as follows: ①The spatial distribution pattern of Taobao towns from 2014 to 2021 shows an obvious north-south direction and a significant trend of belt-like distribution. ②The difference between the long and short semi-axes of the three standard deviation ellipses gradually decreases, indicating that the ellipse flatness decreases and the directionality of the data distribution becomes more and more ambiguous. It indicates that the standard deviation ellipse fitted in the three stages gradually increases, especially the significant change in the coverage of Taobao towns in 2021 when it is in the period of the fastest growth rate of Taobao towns, and its diffusion trend overlaps with the change of the standard deviation ellipse. ③The center of the ellipse gradually shifted to the southwest after 2018, and the center shifted from Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province to Huangshan and Lu’an, Anhui Province year by year. This indicates to some extent that the distribution of Taobao towns in China has gradually expanded and is no longer limited only to the southeast coast, and the development center of gravity has gradually tilted to the central and western inland areas, becoming an important platform for the development of the e-commerce economy in developing area.
The Taobao towns in China exhibit a prominent north-south orientation and belt-like spatial distribution pattern, with the center of gravity gradually shifting towards the northwest direction.
Impact factor analysis of Taobao towns
Based on a comprehensive review of previous research findings (Wang & Wang, 2020), this study considers the number of Taobao towns in each Chinese province in 2021 as the dependent variable. Independent variables, including GDP, cargo volume, express business volume, road network density, digital village index, the number of enterprises engaging in e-commerce trading activities, and the regional innovation and entrepreneurship index, are selected. These variables are transformed into quantitative types through a reclassification method to analyze the factors influencing the spatial distribution of Taobao towns using the GeoDetector. The q-value indicates each factor’s explanatory power on the density of provincial distribution of Taobao towns.
As shown in Table 4, the express business volume, which characterizes the degree of improvement of regional e-commerce infrastructure, has the greatest influence, followed by the value of GDP, which characterizes the regional economic development, and the innovation and entrepreneurship index, which characterizes the regional entrepreneurial atmosphere, and the p-value of all three is infinitely close to 0. This indicates that the e-commerce industry is highly correlated with the industrial base, entrepreneurial concentration, and construction of supporting facilities.
A possible reason is due to the Chinese traditional rural society is a society of acquaintances (Guo, 2022; Yamauchi, 2007). When people have more discretionary funds and a good local industrial foundation, under the leadership of individual entrepreneurial models, rural areas will have a “herd effect” to promote the development of rural industries (Soluk et al., 2021; Wu et al., 2017; Lei & Liu, 2017), which will bring imitation from other potential rural entrepreneurs. As a form of the economy with the bottom of the pyramid (BOP) people as the main employees, rural e-commerce has the characteristics of low technology content and low investment risk (Zhao et al., 2021; Gao & Liu, 2020), which will be more attractive to entrepreneurs and easier to form entrepreneurial clusters. When the development of regional rural e-commerce reaches a certain stage, the enhancement of the regional innovation and entrepreneurship atmosphere can provide innovative “soil” for rural e-commerce and give rise to the emergence of new business models. On the one hand, it provides conditions for the development of new modes of rural e-commerce through the construction of a new digital innovation network of “Internet + entrepreneurial services” in rural areas, and the penetration of digital technology in all aspects of rural e-commerce logistics and services. On the other hand, the development of regional innovation and entrepreneurship can help smooth the circulation channels of urban and rural innovation resources, and through the introduction of capital, talent, land, and other factors, provide basic support for rural technological innovation and research and development, thus promoting the transformation and upgrading of rural e-commerce. At the same time, the improvement of technological innovation can accelerate the construction of smart agriculture, accelerate the process of matching rural information technology, promote the digital transformation of the rural industry, improve the efficiency and quality of agricultural production, and promote the upgrading of the rural industrial chain, which in turn will bring a positive impact on the development of rural e-commerce in the supply chain. In essence, the sustainable development of rural e-commerce is significantly bolstered by a comprehensive entrepreneurial support system, robust innovation, a conducive entrepreneurial atmosphere, and targeted financial investment across the region.
Because the express industry is a key booster of rural e-commerce, rural e-commerce can, in turn, promote the growth of the express business. The two are mutually beneficial and mutually reinforcing relationships. At present, the logistics and warehousing industry has touched more than 30,000 towns and villages, with a coverage rate of 97%, and the prosperous development of the rural e-commerce industry can provide fertile ground. “Report on the work of the government (2022)” (General Office of the State Council of China, 2022) mentions the need to vigorously develop rural logistics, open up production, consumption, circulation, consumption of various links, and consolidate the construction of the county business system. In the future, with China’s high-quality economic development more robust, and the international and domestic logistics system more perfect, Taobao towns will embark on a more robust development path.
In addition, the explanatory power of cargo volume, digital village index, and the number of enterprises with e-commerce trading activities in the number of Taobao towns is strong. Firstly, cargo volume shows the production volume of industry and agriculture and market activity of an area to a certain extent; the number of enterprises with e-commerce trading activities reflects the social atmosphere of e-commerce development in an area; both play a secondary positive role in promoting the development of Taobao towns through market radiation and functional spillover effects. Secondly, the digital village, i.e., a new model of economic development based on big data, mobile Internet, Internet of things (IoT), and cloud platforms in the context of rural revitalization, aims to integrate digital informatization into all aspects of rural production and life ecology, which generally includes four aspects of rural digital infrastructure, rural economic digitization, rural governance digitization, and rural life digitization. Among them, digital infrastructure is mainly measured by the coverage rate of devices, the depth of commercial and financial reach, and the degree of platform construction of data and information resources; the economic digitalization index involves the scale of production bases, the developed evaluation of supply chains, the scope of e-commerce marketing promotion, and the degree of digitalization of inclusive finance; digitalization of governance refers to the coverage of public governance means; digitalization index of life, i.e., the degree of digitalization of consumption, cultural tourism, education, health, services, etc.
The operating mechanism of digital countryside empowering rural e-commerce development is reflected in the interaction and influence of the supply side and the demand side. On the supply side, digital countryside-enabled rural e-commerce development plays a role by improving the efficiency of resource allocation, reducing transaction costs, enhancing information transparency, and expanding the scope of the market. Through digital technology, agricultural producers can directly bring their products to the market, avoiding the intermediate links in the traditional channels, and at the same time, expanding the scope of sales of agricultural products, enabling products in rural areas to have wider access to the urban market, and facilitating the continued penetration of e-commerce scale into rural areas. On the demand side, the digital countryside brings the impact of improved consumer convenience, increased product diversity, enhanced information symmetry, and price transparency. Improved consumer convenience can promote the circulation of rural consumer goods and urban consumer goods, and the development of rural e-commerce platforms can help bring together more suppliers, which can help rural consumer goods go out and also provide conditions for urban consumer goods to come in, thus diversifying overall consumer demand. In addition, the development of digital villages can make product information more transparent, so that consumers can have a more comprehensive understanding of product quality, price, and other information, which enhances the confidence and efficiency of purchasing.
At present, the digital village indices in the western and northeastern areas lag behind those in the eastern and central areas, and there are still large regional differences in the results of village construction, making it difficult for this economic development model to take maximum advantage. In the future, it is worth exploring how to realize the deep integration of digital technology and agriculture, how to apply the results of digital village construction to the growth of Taobao towns, and how to promote rural e-commerce in backward areas to realize the economic transformation of agricultural products, and how to realize the common prosperity of the rural e-commerce industry.
It is worth noting that the q-statistic of the road network density is not significant, the reason is that China has basically formed a “ten vertical and ten horizontal” comprehensive transport channel as the backbone of a smooth internal and external comprehensive three-dimensional transportation network, and gradually entering a new phase of accelerating the construction of a modernized comprehensive transport system. Traffic conditions are not the limiting factor for the emergence and development of Taobao towns, but the strengthening factor.
As shown in Table 5, according to the results of the spatial distribution of Taobao towns interaction factor detection, there are no independent or weakening factors, all showing bi-factor enhancement. The development of Taobao towns is not the result of one factor alone but depends on the combined effect of the economic base, social environment, market atmosphere, transportation conditions, infrastructure construction, and so on.
