According to new research from Forrester, the value of the global online shopping business is predicted to grow from $4.4 trillion last year to $6.8 trillion by 2028.
That would represent more than $2 trillion in growth, though the forecast is more conservative than other estimates, which peg e-commerce at $6 trillion in 2024. But the research firm's outlook pegs the larger global retail market at $28.7 trillion in sales.
If most of these transactions aren't happening online, they have to happen somewhere else: from a brick-and-mortar store.
Despite the disruption to brick-and-mortar stores, they appear to be weathering the storm, with a flurry of new store openings across the U.S. in contrast to a wave of closures from Express, Lu21, Macy's and others. Coresight Research hinted at that earlier this month, with analyst Brian Gildenberg telling WWD, “Despite all the noise about a retail apocalypse, U.S. store chains have seen net gains since COVID ended.”
Forrester believes that in-store shopping is not just holding up, but will continue to play a big role in retail, at least for the foreseeable future: The firm estimates that 76% of the $28.7 trillion in global sales, or $21.9 trillion, will take place offline.
“Wide-reaching store closures and social distancing measures during the pandemic accelerated e-commerce growth, but growth has reversed in recent years as consumers have begun to flock back to brick-and-mortar stores,” Jitender Miglani, principal forecasting analyst, explained in a blog post on Thursday.
But he expects e-commerce to “gain momentum” thanks to efforts such as shopping offers and generative AI initiatives, which are already well underway, with an Nvidia survey from January revealing that 98% of retailers plan to invest in the technology over the next 18 months.
Miglani added that e-commerce will also benefit from other factors, such as mature channels (such as online marketplaces, social commerce, livestream selling and direct-to-consumer commerce), an increase in younger consumers due to greater internet access and more innovative payment solutions.
In the United States alone, e-commerce is expected to grow from $1 trillion in 2023 to $1.6 trillion in four years' time, accounting for 28% of all retail sales in the market.
