The chances of passing a bill legalizing sports betting in Minnesota are shrinking by the week.
The new assessment comes from a bill sponsor in the Minnesota Senate, where legalization efforts have had the most difficult path over the years.
“If you had told me a month ago, I would have told you we are in a 60-70 percent situation,” Sen. Matt Klein, DFL-Mendota Heights, told MPR News on Wednesday. “I think it's down about 20 percent.”
The House passed the bill in 2022 and is prepared to pass it again if the Senate is willing.
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Lawmakers have been debating the proposal since a 2018 U.S. Supreme Court ruling that cleared the way for states to make legalization decisions. Most states now offer legal sports betting, with some restricting it to brick-and-mortar parlors and others allowing mobile platforms.
Klein said in an interview that the uproar over DFL Sen. Nicole Mitchell's theft charges has strained relations between the two major parties.
“This is just one of those bills that had supporters and opponents on both the Democratic and Republican sides,” Klein said. “I was going to thread the needle and make it work, but I was running out of time.”
Lawmakers have until May 20 to complete their work.
In Minnesota, social conservatives who oppose gambling and liberals concerned about addiction are joining the opposition movement, while libertarians and populists who want to do justice to issues are pushing for approval.
The DFL holds a 34-33 majority in the Senate, but not all DFL members have committed to voting in favor of the gaming bill.
There's also the question of who should control gambling, with leading DFL lawmakers poised to give exclusive rights to a federally recognized tribe in Minnesota that already operates a licensed casino. This has upset the operators of his two racetracks, who want to reduce activity.
On Tuesday, the sports betting bill took a step forward in the House Taxation Committee, which referred the bill to the House Ways and Means Committee. The committee was only required to consider the bill's tax provisions. The bill has passed other House committees, but it is unclear whether it will pass that chamber or if it will be voted on if it stalls in the Senate.
Republicans introduced an amendment that would give tax breaks to veterans organizations and other nonprofits that rely on charitable gaming. Republican lawmakers say they pushed that path because they don't think the sports betting bill will pass this year.
“The sports bill will be repealed and they will never get anything again,” said Rep. Christine Robbins, R-Maple Grove.
Other Democrats say they see the problem as well. But they don't plan on giving up just yet.
“When I heard during the conversation that this bill was going nowhere, I looked to the veterans and watched their attitudes change as this hearing progressed,” said Dave Lislegard, DFL Aurora. the congressman said. “I feel sorry for you, because we're basically saying this doesn't have a chance. Is this a perfect bill? Probably not, but it's a step in the right direction. And I’m going to keep fighting for that.”