Few things in baseball over the past decade have been as reliable as the success of the Houston Astros. Since 2017, the Stros have had the second-most wins in MLB, during which time the Orange and Navy Giants became the first franchise to win seven consecutive American League Championship Series. They have competed in the Fall Classic four times, winning in 2017 and 2022.
The Astros were like the sun rising and setting, like the tides washing against the shore. All October roads lead to and pass through Houston. This is the closest thing to a dynasty baseball has seen since the New York Yankees of the late '90s. Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Justin Verlander, Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, Framber Valdez: These are some of the names and faces that defined this era of playoff baseball.
But now, for the first time in a while, it seems like there is darkness at the end of the tunnel.
Almost a month into the 2024 season, the Houston Astros are just 7-17. Only three teams have a worse record: the White Sox, Rockies and Marlins. Even the cash-strapped and soon-to-be nomadic Oakland Athletics are ahead of Houston in the American League West.
This raises some important questions. “Why did this happen?” Why did this roster, which looks strikingly similar to last year's division-winning group, produce such terrible baseball? What are the chances that the tide will change? What are the legitimate reasons for concern, and what is the gobbledygook of low samples?
The season is still young. April has not yet entered May, giving Houston plenty of time to right the ship. But at the same time, the red flags for this team are bright, loud, and impossible to ignore.
rotational damage
Houston currently has its entire elite pitching rotation on injured reserve. That group includes Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, Jose Urquidy, Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia. Future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander returned last week after missing three weeks with shoulder inflammation. This is an unfortunate outburst that exceeds typical attrition rates and forces multiple second-level weapons into the fire.
Ronel Blanco, who pitched a no-hitter in his first start of the season, was a miraculous discovery, but other unproven starting pitchers also struggled, with JP France, Hunter Brown, and Spencer Arrigetti all on the back foot. It looks like. In 12 starts and a combined 50 innings, the trio allowed 49 runs.
Things may get better from here. Houston expects Valdez to return next week. Verlander still plans to be a front-line starter at age 41, even if injury concerns are ever-present at this point in his career. He was pitching well until Javier was shelved due to his neck problems. If Houston can get there, this trio, along with the suddenly famous Blanco, would make for a formidable playoff rotation.
However, Garcia, McCullers and Archidi are not expected to return for some time. Javier's return schedule has not yet been determined. Verlander is a “baseball veteran,” which means his body can fail at any time. Valdez's elbow discomfort is not completely resolved and is a type of disease that can recur or worsen. Blanco's record is shorter than the distance down the left field line at Minute Maid Park. If Houston is to climb out of its already imposing hole, it will need to improve its second-division starters.
bullpen disaster
In the offseason, Houston made a rare and flashy move, signing Josh Hader, one of the most capable closers in the game, to a five-year, $95 million contract. His addition was supposed to strengthen an already impressive bullpen led by Ryan Pressley and Brian Abreu. Rather, Houston's relief staff is the club's most important anchor and a major reason for its early struggles.
Eight times this year, new manager Joe Espada has given the lead in the late innings and given the ball to Hader, Pressley or Abreu. Six of those were saves. That's an unsustainably bad rate for any bullpen, much less such an expensive unit expected to overwhelm opponents in late innings, and in fact, it's the worst in baseball.
That being said, if the Astros' pen had protected two more of those leads, the club would now be at a disappointing but not so great 9-15. Despite recent poor performance, this is an area where improvement seems inevitable.
bad attack luck
Despite all the injuries, late-game upsets, and ugly losses, Houston's vaunted offense held up its end of the bargain for the most part. Sure, Jose Abreu unfortunately looks good and Alex Bregman is staggering out of the gate with free agency on the horizon, but most of this lineup is doing well. Houston's offense, aside from its 7-17 record, is performing like a playoff team.
That means the Astros are fourth in team wRC+ behind the Dodgers, Orioles, and Braves. Altuve should be a candidate for AL MVP. Alvarez remains one of the most feared hitters in the sport. Tucker is a force. The second-level players like Yainar Diaz, Jeremy Pena, and Jake Myers were great.
However, there is clearly a gap between the results of the offense and the amount of runs. Houston's numbers look good, but he ranks 19th in MLB in points scored. The culprit is a combination of small sample size, poor base running, and poor ordering of attacks. Houston's production with runners in scoring position is significantly worse than its overall production (close to league average). It's hard to say whether this is luck or skill, and some of it will definitely improve over time, but the 2023 San Diego Padres will have a historically poor year with runners on base. It is noteworthy that it sank to .
So, can the Astros get out of this hole? probably. Probably not. This team is probably a 90-win club with real value. Unfortunately for the Astros, they will need to play like a 100-win team in their remaining games to continue their seven-year epic rivalry.
