The NFL Draft has begun in recent months after the Chicago Bears selected USC quarterback Caleb Williams with the No. 1 overall pick. And while the selection process is scheduled to begin Thursday, nothing has changed. Rather, it has come full circle and ignored the relentless factory of speculation that only produces enough mock drafts to challenge the aspirin marathons, temple scrapes, and endless blank spaces of the internet.
With only a few days left this week, he still starts behind Williams in the draft.And no one else in the league is. very Surely what will happen.
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To be sure, there are more informed speculations than an army of “insiders.” Human resources and coaching staffs continue to travel, working together at the crossroads of the NFL scouting combine, league meetings and numerous pro days. We shared dinner and drinks at the hotel's general locations and restaurants. Old friends gather in the booth to say hello and gossip about the players. And in it, the team's reps try to calculate some of March and his April's hidden calculations, picking up on conversations while trying to give shape to their conflicting needs and infatuations. I was there.
With that in mind, we've had final negotiations over the past few days with a number of front office and coaching staffs, as well as supporting staff around the league who can provide some final insight into what will happen later this week.
Here are some of the most interesting nuggets…
First of all, Williams is going to the Bears. So let's move beyond that to LSU's Daniels and Washington's command.
Without a doubt, the managers did a great job of disrupting the situation for second overall. I hear they were measuring between Daniels and North Carolina's Maye at various points over the past two months. Then, in late March and early April, rumors began to swirl that Michigan quarterback JJ McCarthy was also in the mix. About a month ago, after I wrote an article encouraging people to relax about the relationship between McCarthy and Washington, a human resources source I trusted reached out to me and tacitly said, “It's real.”
Over time, Daniels has emerged as the most deft and polished player of the “next three,” finishing his collegiate career far more consistently than Maye, and his performance compared to projection. The number of films showing this was far greater. About what McCarthy can do.
That's not to say that McCarthy and May don't have fans in Washington. There is. But right now, Daniels is showing a solid high ceiling with special traits, plus a higher floor than Maye and McCarthy. Although they are young, they are taking advantage of their future against guessing what it will be like. And even that projection makes it clear that both are a solid step away from Daniels' current position as an athlete and passer. Unless Commanders owner Josh Harris makes some final input that could change things (and he's been very involved in the process), Daniels is the favorite to go No. 2 overall around the league. There is a firm belief that there is.
Then things can get complicated.
Contrary to massive expectations since March 15, when the Minnesota Vikings acquired the 23rd overall pick from the Houston Texans, there is a growing consensus among NFL teams that McCarthy is not the primary target for a trade up. There is. Vikings. In fact, Maye is considered Minnesota's top target. He has ties to quarterbacks coach Josh McCown, who coached Maye in high school. A potential complication for the Vikings is how the quarterback stack will be placed at the top of the draft.
Assuming Daniels is the manager's No. 2 pick, all eyes will be on the New England Patriots at No. 3 and what they choose with that slot. A trade out is certainly an option, but it's telling that team owner Robert Kraft has said publicly in one breath that he'll “leave it up to the team,” and then in the next breath said: I hope we get a top young quarterback. ” Achieving that goal would mean the Patriots sticking with the No. 3 pick and selecting that player. If that player is May, the drafts of two teams could be turned upside down.
The first is the Vikings, who will likely take their top quarterback target off the board. The second team is the New York Giants, who are carefully considering working with the league to determine how their quarterback stack will be distributed on Thursday. No doubt there are other front offices that believe their quarterback will thrive with the Giants. What is unclear is whether McCarthy, who visited the team privately in March, is the player they are targeting with the No. 6 pick.
This is where the Giants and Vikings could potentially meet for the Arizona Cardinals' No. 4 overall pick. If the Giants believe the Vikings are considering McCarthy as their next top option after Maye…and if Maye is ruled out for New England at No. 3…that's the Cardinals' No. 4 pick. would create the possibility of a sprint to rights. And this is what New York will look like. They have an advantage over the Vikings in one important way: Arizona slipped in just two spots in the draft, a simpler move for the Cardinals to take one of their elite wide receivers at No. 6 (likely LSU). Malik Nabors of Washington) and Roma Odunze of Washington). That doesn't mean the Cardinals are willing to drop to the Vikings' No. 11 pick. The trade is expected to result in the 23rd overall pick and additional compensation. But the move will include more volatility, as the Cardinals look to repeat last year's “down, up” strategy in which they traded the No. 3 pick to the Houston Texans for the No. 12 pick. The Cardinals went back to the Detroit Lions at No. 6 and selected offensive tackle Paris Johnson there.
Could the Cardinals make a similar move again? yes. But it's still full of risks, as they could get locked out and miss out on all of their top receivers in the draft, or face a bidding war with another team targeting their own receiver needs. If the trade with Arizona ends up with the Giants or Vikings, the likely outcome is where that compensation will be paid. and Cardinals general manager Monty Ossenfort. many – The Vikings in particular have a huge need at quarterback after letting Kirk Cousins go and signing Sam Darnold to a one-year bridge contract. Ossenfort also knows that Minnesota would like to sign wideout Justin Jefferson to a lucrative long-term contract. And it's much better to include a rookie quarterback contract in future plans. That's not great for the Vikings, but it's certainly good for their trade partners who want to push them to the trade table.
There's a twist to this too. A league source told Yahoo Sports that if the Patriots acquire Maye, the Vikings would not participate in trade talks and would use one of their two first-round picks (either No. 11 or No. 23). and selected Oregon State quarterback Bo Nix. It's worth noting here that Knicks held a private workout for the Vikings earlier this month.
Even if it fails, get to the draft table no later than the second pick. It's going to be rough after this.
More NFL Draft odds and outcomes…
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Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. It's going to be very interesting. There's still a case to be made that he's a hot pick for the Las Vegas Raiders and is squarely a first-round prospect. Despite an impressive pro day and an overall positive draft process, too many teams still have him over-performing or underperforming in the second round. This doesn't mean he won't be a first-round pick, as teams often only assign a first-round grade of 14-18 on the board (this is because a player with a second-round grade is a first-round pick). (suggesting that it is selected by sight). Some of the reticence remains in Penix's history, but part of it is his struggles with touch and accuracy in the short-to-intermediate passing game. Ditto for how he struggled against pressure in the national title game against Michigan. But Penix is the classic “one team is enough.” He may be No. 1, he may be high on No. 1, but there are quite a few teams that rate him lower than people think.
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The more I hear about evaluations of the running back class as we get closer to the draft, the more I think it's possible that a large portion of this class will go in the third round. Last week I wrote a more in-depth article about running backs, and after looking into the last call, we had some new data. There was some consideration about a surprise “first” running back dropping, but I'm more confident now that it's going to be one or the other. Jonathan Brooks of Texas or Trey Benson of Florida State University. This hasn't exactly revealed that both are playing at the top of the running back stack, but it now feels like they're more of a separate tier, with the next tier being a mixture of them. It has become. Michigan's Blake Corum, Braylon Allen of Wisconsin and Jalen Wright of Tennessee.
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unless there is Georgia's Ladd McConkey or Xavier Leggett of South Carolina If the party crashes, I believe the first round wide receiver group will be limited to a minimum of five and a maximum of six.It consists of Marvin Harrison Jr. of Ohio State University, LSU's Malik Nabers and brian thomas jr., Roma Odunze of Washington and Xavier Werty of Texas. A player who is unsteady is Adonai Mitchell of TexasOpinions are more divided than the other five.
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and JaTavion Sanders of Texas It's clear he was replaced by the No. 2 tight end after struggling in the draft process. Brock Bowers of Georgia. Right now, the No. 2 tight end for many teams looks like this: Theo Johnson of Penn State.
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A first-round offensive tackle run goes wild. He could have seven tackles in his first 32 picks. Joe Alto of Notre Dame, Olu Fashanu of Penn State University, Alabama's JC Latham, Talese Fuaga of Oregon State University, Troy Fortanu of Washington, Oklahoma's Tyler Guyton and Amarius Mims of Georgia.Some teams are also watching BYU's Kingsley Suamataia Also as a potential late first round pick. Three interesting players to watch from this group are Fashanu, Latham, and Mims. Opinions are divided on all three. Even if Fashanu and Latham weren't the second and third tackles on the board behind Alt (which is the slot they are often ridiculed for), or Mims could move past the first tackle and move into the top spot. I wouldn't be surprised if that were the case. Second round. Bottom line: Tackle order is going to be a little more chaotic than people think.
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The interior defensive line may just watch. Byron Murphy II of Texas He was drafted in the first round, but there is some interest in the top 10. And while there's talk that Murphy could play as the first defensive player selected in the draft, the consensus I got from the team was: Dallas Turner of Alabama He was by far the best and cleanest defensive rating in the draft.
