With Bitcoin's halving just one day away, it would seem that by now most people have an answer to the eternal question, “Is the market priced in?”
But that doesn't stop people interested in cryptocurrencies from continuing to ask it Until the block height reaches 840,000.
no one Really We know what the price of Bitcoin will be after the halving, but we know how it went down in previous events.
When events like this occur, the story of “buy the rumor, sell the news” spreads widely. Some people called me that. news traderuse this theory as gospel and trade based entirely on market sentiment ahead of big events.
So what has happened to the crypto market in the wake of previously hyped events? From Elon Musk on SNL to the Super Bowl, let's take a trip down memory lane.
Elon Musk talks about SNL (Dogecoin)
It was the peak of the 2021 bull market. Dogecoin was already flying Just like Elon Musk Tweet about meme coins Over and over and over again until he was Investigation by SEC.
Tesla founder announced as host Saturday Night Live (SNL) And the crypto world predicted that this would lead to a parabolic rally towards the $1 mark. The day before the show, it was sitting at $0.68.
musk I mentioned dog coins, twice in his opening monologue and in a Weekend Update sketch, but what he had to say wasn't entirely positive. Although he sarcastically called it “the hustle,” rolling stonetook this not as a joke but as an admission of guilt. As a result, memecoin plummeted by more than 20% in an hour.In fact, so many people tried to offload their tokens that Robinhood Overwhelmed by Dogecoin trading. following year, Dogecoin has lost 90% of its value Below $0.10.
In this case, the news appears to have already been priced in. However, it is also possible that the current owner of Twitter was distorted because he was not completely positive about meme coins.Dogecoin is actually 10% price increase When Musk was announced as the host of SNL, it fueled the “buy the rumor, sell the news” narrative.
Ethereum merge
One of the most anticipated moments in Ethereum's history: merge.
In September 2022, Ethereum transformed from a power-hungry society proof of work Towards an environmentally friendly system proof of stake system.Many believed this upgrade would increase prices ethereum price On the other hand, the environmental impact has decreased.
In the months leading up to the upgrade, Ethereum pumps 44% It cost over $1,700. However, this upward trajectory did not last long.Immediately after the merger is completed, ETH Prices fell by 0.4%. 1 year later, the price was about the same. But fortunately, the hype was real. energy consumption 99.99% decrease.
Again, this merger appears to have been priced in.
Super Bowl LVI Advertisement
In 2022, the Cincinnati Bengals were scheduled to play the Los Angeles Rams at SoFi Stadium. Cryptocurrency companies thought of this as follows. Opportunity to spread the gospel and, According to NBCpurchased advertising space for $6.5 million per 30 seconds.
Given the huge mainstream audience, many believed that these ads would draw the general public into the world of cryptocurrencies and increase the tide.
This is partially true, and advertising has become more effective, according to analytics firm Sensor Tower. 279% increase in crypto app downloads. However, according to CoinGeckoBitcoin price fell 1.5% during the event, after rising 11% in the previous two weeks.
many cryptocurrency companies Companies like Crypto.com, Coinbase, Nouns DAO, and the infamous FTX emerged. An eye-popping $54 million According to MediaRadar, it's being spent on advertising space.
Matt Damon”Fortune favors the brave” The ad caused Crypto.com’s CRO token to rise from $0.48 the day before to $0.47 the next day. CoinGecko.meanwhile Coinbase QR code ads was a great success. The app crashed at night—The stock 1.7% drop sunk in pre-market trading 64% in the following year. However, according to NFT price floor, noun DAO The floor jumped from 79 ETH the day before the Super Bowl to 87 ETH the next day.
No Super Bowl ad has aged as well as FTX. larry david This ad was released less than 10 months after the company. folded And its founder, Sam Bankman Freed, was later convicted of multiple federal crimes.
What we learned is that one Super Bowl ad alone isn't enough to take your project to new heights. But overall, they have increased public awareness of the crypto industry. I pissed off a few people along the way..
Bitcoin ETF Approved
Earlier this year, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) authorized spot trading. Bitcoin exchange traded fund (ETF) start trading.
Some analysts believe that the market capitalization of virtual currencies is $1 trillion increase and predicted price risesome warn that traders are likely to: sell news.
After approval, bitcoin price The movement was choppy.When this news leaked through an order posted on his SEC's website and deleted, BTC Approximately $45,840. Shortly thereafter, the price rose to $46,263. Over the next week, Bitcoin plummets 12%.
After 3 months, the price of Bitcoin has increased by 42%, according to CoinGeckoas ETFs have clearly increased demand for major cryptocurrencies.
It seems that the ETF news itself was almost priced in, but the subsequent trading volume was not.
What about the previous Bitcoin halving?
This is not the first time Bitcoin has experienced a halving. There have been three companies since our founding.
The first half-life occurred on November 28, 2012. According to the following data, the year after the first halving, Bitcoin rose from $12 to $1,000. chain analysis. A similar pattern was seen in 2016, when the price of Bitcoin rose from $650 to $2,500 in one year. Finally, in 2020, Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $69,000, just one year after it hit $8,000 in May.
CoinGecko I calculated these numbers And we found that the price of Bitcoin rises an average of 3,230% within a year after each halving. However, immediately after this spike, the price of Bitcoin typically decrease by more than 80%—Entering the virtual currency winter.
If we look back at history, we can see that the question arises: “Is it factored in?” The answer is much more complicated than you might think. Each scenario is different and has unique circumstances that affect each.
What would have happened if Mr. Musk had given Mr. Doge a little harder?will do coinbase Would it have become a major exchange if QR codes hadn't become popular? Would FTX still exist if Larry David hadn't done that ad? Same goes for “what if?” This is obviously a dizzying question.
