Let's talk about why President Biden is spending three days in Pennsylvania this week — a significant amount of time by campaign standards. By now you know that a handful of battleground states will be critical to winning the White House in November. The Keystone State is most important to Biden.
It's not just that Pennsylvania has the most electoral votes of any battleground state, with 19. And it's not just part of the Blue Wall. The Blue Wall is a series of industrial states that supported Democratic presidential victories for years until Donald Trump defeated him in 2016. This battle is also personal. Mr. Biden is a native son of Pennsylvania, where he spent part of his childhood, identified with its working-class and ordinary people's atmosphere, and intuitively understood how this state is a microcosm of America. understood. If Scranton Joe can't hang on to Rosebud, he'll probably be in big trouble nationally.
The good news for Mr. Biden is that he appears to be in a close race with Mr. Trump here, unlike in other battleground states where he has struggled a bit more, according to polls and campaign officials. The even tougher news is that even though many Democrats are predicting a close race, it's still unclear what will energize voters and encourage them to vote. “My biggest fear is that people are exhausted by the chaos,” said Rep. Mary Gay Scanlon, who hails from one of the “colored” suburban counties near Philadelphia.
So what does Team Biden need to do to win? High-profile visits like Biden's three-day swing this week are important. But those are just a few of the things it takes to win in a place as vast and complex as Pennsylvania. To understand this puzzle more clearly, I began picking the brains of more than a dozen strategists, organizers, elected officials, and other state political experts. Several common themes and strategies emerged, some easier for the president and his campaign to work on than others.
I first approached Gov. Josh Shapiro, a member of Biden's campaign advisory committee and considered a Democratic rock star since winning the state by nearly 15 points in 2022. (Biden won by a landslide 1.2 points so far in 2020. To be fair, Shapiro had a really bad opponent.)
There is a story that stuck with me from my conversation with the governor. It's certainly a bit of a canned story, but it got me thinking about some of the hurdles facing Biden. Asked if anything about his own election surprised him, Shapiro talked about his first TV ad. The TV ad depicted Mr. Shapiro sitting around a Shabbat dinner table with his family, and then voters flocking to him to share their opinions. the stories and traditions of one's own faith; “The ads allowed them to talk to me personally,” he recalls.
Mr. Biden can empathize with the best of people, but many voters, especially among his supporters, have not felt a personal connection lately. Finding ways to reconnect and make people feel understood and heard has been one of his toughest challenges.
Part of that will be letting voters know that he has been working for them. Regarding his experience, Shapiro says it's important to explain to people “what you brought to the table and how your work positively impacted their lives.” It also means addressing what still needs fixing: making clear what voters' pain is felt. “The voices of the people were heard loud and clear. Things cost a lot of money. They want relief,” the governor said, stressing the need to “recognize the hardships that people are feeling.” did.
Biden is trying to promote his accomplishments and himself to voters, but he will have to do so in a very different part of Pennsylvania. Winning here means playing everywhere, say state politicians — in Philadelphia, in its collar counties, in Allegheny (home of Pittsburgh), in this western enclave, where Democrats aim. Just about everyone who can recite the required vote margin is in the Lehigh Valley, and even in the “T-counties” that run through the central and upper parts of the state, which are usually Republican. In summary, the Blue Team's blueprint is to increase numbers in and around Philadelphia, perform well in Allegheny and other select areas, and reduce Republican margins of victory in more rural areas.
“We can't rely on places that are traditionally friendly to us. We have to close the gap in areas where we can't win,” said Democratic Lt. Gov. Austin Davis. Citing the reliably red counties of Westmoreland in the Pittsburgh region and rural Northumberland as examples, he suggested: It makes a big difference. ”
“White space matters!” acknowledged state Rep. Malcolm Kenyatta, who is running statewide for auditor general. This is especially true when turnout in Philadelphia isn't particularly high. Democrats say it's been that way for several years. But we'll get to that in a moment.
Expanding into hostile territory was critical to Mr. Shapiro and Sen. John Fetterman's 2022 victory. Presidential campaign activities are different, but the basics can be transferred. Team Biden will need to build campaign infrastructure and outreach early on in areas that Democrats typically block.
So far, the campaign appears to be taking this challenge seriously.
Lancaster County is one of the places that doesn't show much love for Democrats. Trump won this Republican stronghold in 2020 by a nearly 16-point margin. Shapiro narrowly lost to MAGA powerhouse Doug Mastriano in 2022. But the Biden team saw potential here and began investing resources early this cycle. The campaign opened a local office last month, one of 14 already active in the state, and laid out big to-dos for the event, inviting MSNBC to cover it. Recruitment for the campaign is in full swing, with volunteers already knocking on voters' doors multiple times a week.
Last Saturday, I joined Stella Sexton, vice chair of the county Democratic Committee, in negotiations. With a list of registered Democrats in hand, she reminded people that the primary was this Tuesday and made sure they knew the voting location was at a local funeral home. She told me that by getting people to participate in the primary, they're more likely to participate in the general election.
Many of the people on her list were not home. Or didn't answer the door. (Video doorbells made it even more difficult, she noted.) Some weren't in the mood to chat, like the older gentleman who came to the door wearing fish-print pajama pants. But every once in a while, Sexton would come across someone who shared his sense of mission, like Berniece Lyons, a lively nonagenarian who feels strongly about the need to defeat Trump. “That man is angry!” she declared.
Of course, there are limits to how much playing in Republican areas can win over Biden. His success hinges largely on Philadelphia's populous colored counties, which once tilted red but have shifted blue in recent years as suburban women rebelled against Trump. ing. MAGA extremism was not doing well in the region even before the end of Roe v. Wade. now? Rallying moderates and independents around reproductive rights is central to the Democratic Party's strategy.
And then there's Philadelphia. To run statewide, Democrats will need to increase their vote share in this city of more than 1.5 million people, where three-quarters of voters are registered Democrats. Democrats seem most nervous when talking about Philadelphia. Voter turnout in the past few elections has been fair, they say. And since 2020, Biden has lost support in some core constituencies, including Black and Hispanic voters, many of whom are in Philadelphia.
Some, including former Gov. Ed Rendell, worry it will be difficult for the president to match his 2020 numbers this time around. The city “has been hit hard by the pandemic. We also have crime problems and economic problems,” he said. “What's really there is not a feeling of hopelessness, but a general sense that people are unmotivated.”
Political observers following the city say there is a lack of urgency about the importance of this election, especially among young black men. The Biden campaign hopes to change this situation by getting involved early. The company wants to turn its offices into community hubs, and may even be able to install community refrigerators (like community pantries, just… coolers) in some areas. And we want to bring trusted local leaders into the conversation with people early and often.
Smart politicians also know that they must not overlook the state's Hispanic population. Although this population group is still relatively modest at 8.6%, it is growing far beyond Philadelphia. Notably, Allentown, Pennsylvania's third largest city, now has a majority Hispanic population and elected its first Latino mayor in 2021.
Mr. Shapiro's team remains in contact with Spanish-language media hosts, and the governor has been interviewed on Spanish-language radio. Allentown Mayor Matt Turk has made it clear that he is not required to speak Spanish. “But we need to come earlier, not just in October, and really listen to our concerns.” Already this year, Biden has visited Allentown, and the president's Health and Human Services Secretary, Xavier,・Mr. Becerra also visited.
It is important to properly introduce the right surrogate. Local human resources will be the backbone. “It’s so important to tell your story through the people who live in your community,” Shapiro says. However, superstars may also have that status. “If I were the campaign manager, I would take Bill Clinton and send him to every small county in the state,” Rendell said. “And I want Barack Obama to attack major cities.” Many expected Mr. Shapiro, who has enviable approval ratings, to be Mr. Biden's most effective surrogate. There is. “He's the most popular Democrat in the state,” Rendell said. “Use him!”
Of course, your campaign messenger needs to have a message that resonates. On the policy front, Pennsylvanians, like the nation, have the economy at the top of their concerns. (It's no surprise that this is the theme of Biden's trip this week.) Indeed, many of the issues plaguing people here are ones we hear everywhere. Gun violence is a concern in Philadelphia. Young voters are outraged by the war in Gaza. The opioid crisis is hitting hard. Democracy is under threat. Women's reproductive rights are under attack.
The state also has unique circumstances, including the thorny issue of hydraulic fracturing. Many Democrats dislike the process because of the environmental costs. But in Pennsylvania, Rendell said, fracking has dispossessed “a lot of people who are going to live poor and die poor,” making their land valuable and eliminating their “economic insecurity.” do.
Burwood Yost, director of the Opinion Research Center at Franklin and Marshall College, said tensions over energy development here are one reason the party has lost ground in the southwestern part of the state. At a rally in the Lehigh Valley last Saturday, Trump gleefully portrayed the president as an enemy of Pennsylvania's energy sector. Rendell says Biden needs to approach the issue with great care. Yost believes that Shapiro, who has been successful in striking a similar balance in the past, could “offer some ideas.”
The president's heaviest measure may be to combat the general bad atmosphere prevailing in the country. “We're at a stage of polarization and politics where politics is less important than emotion,” Yost said. And while it's good to tout tangible results, “you have to have some vision,” he says.
Vision is difficult. Shapiro frames this election as a story about freedom: the freedom for women to control their own bodies, the freedom to love who they want, the freedom to be who they are. Scanlon sees this election as “an election about choices, not just about reproductive rights.” Biden will need to find a unique narrative for his candidacy and work hard to push it forward. But even with a great story, it's difficult to correct people's emotions.
Still, as the race heats up and people pay attention, Democrats are betting that they will benefit from the confusion surrounding Mr. Biden's opponents, as they have since 2018. “There's an old saying in politics: 'The greatest motivator is hate, not love,'” Rendell said. “And Trump is giving many people a reason to hate and fear him.”
Democrats are hoping this will prove a crucial piece of the puzzle.
