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UFC 300 best bet
Action Network's Billy Ward breaks down the best bets for this year's biggest cards.
“Given the tumultuous past few years in the light heavyweight division, it should come as no surprise that Jiri Prochaska's attempt to regain the title he never lost ended in (mild) controversy last November. .
Prochaska was facing current champion and UFC 300 headliner Alex Pereira in his first fight back from a serious shoulder injury. After winning the first round, he was hit with a left hook and went for a takedown before being knocked down by a series of elbows from Pereira..
At least that's how Mark Goddard sees it.Judging by Prochaska's immediate protest after the interruption, he may have simply slipped and fallen awkwardly.
In any case, in a slightly different world, Prochaska (-112) will defend her title in Saturday's main event. Instead, he is in the preliminaries against Aleksandar Rakic (-108).
Rakic is coming back from an injury of his own, tearing his anterior cruciate ligament against Jan Blachowicz nearly two years ago. The easiest path to victory against the awkward Prochaska is to flatten the tires with leg kicks, so that could be a big factor here.
Rakic's injury appears to be at least partially due to Blachowicz repeatedly checking his kicks, and he may not want to go back to that well. There are other stylistic difficulties, including Rakic's typical reliance on a reach advantage that Prochaska does not have..
Another flaw I noticed when cutting the tape on Rakic is his tendency to drop his right hand on the follow-through of his punches. Usually he keeps his distance and when his opponent approaches, he raises his guard and evades it.
This is not a good plan against the tall Prochaska. Prochaska's awkward hitting angle can surprise opponents when they feel they are in a safe position.
The combination of styles involved and Rakic's injury factor is enough for me to accept Prochaska even if the line is going in his direction this week. I'm going to bet him to around -120 and then look for inside odds on him as an alternative. ”.
Pick: Jiri Prochaska ML +100
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