(Kitco News) – Pre-halving volatility continued to dominate the crypto market on Tuesday, with prices reversing after Monday’s spike, with Bitcoin (BTC) falling below $69,000 and altcoins falling.
Stocks trended lower for much of the trading day as investors watched on the sidelines ahead of tomorrow's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. This will help clarify the expected trajectory of US interest rates. Currently, the market sees a 57% chance of a June rate cut and a 74% chance of a July rate cut.
The rally toward the close helped the S&P and Nasdaq move out of negative territory with gains of 0.14% and 0.32%, respectively, while the Dow ended flat.
According to data provided by TradingView, Bitcoin has been trending lower since hitting a high of $72,800 on Monday, dropping 6.82% to a low of $68,200 on Tuesday afternoon, before buying on the push managed to hit $69,000. It pushed it back to a level that exceeded that of the dollar.
BTC/USD Charts by TradingView
At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $69,030, down 3.75% on the 24-hour chart.
expected volatility
“The recent macro environment has been a pendulum-swing, with expectations for a Goldilocks scenario of a perfect soft landing and expectations for inflation accelerating again and more hawkish monetary policy,” market analyst Bradgood said in his latest update. “We are constantly torn between fears that policies will be forced on us.” “The unusually sharp decline in stock prices on Thursday seems to have swung slightly bearish sentiment at the moment, but much of that has been reversed by the end of the week.”
“In any case, all eyes are on tomorrow's CPI release, and the consensus forecast is 3.5%,” he said. “It is still unclear when a rate cut will ultimately occur, given that markets fear the Fed may have sent dovish signals and acted too early, but inflation has exceeded expectations.” If there's any kind of surprise in that respect, it's going to have an impact.'' It's going to have a huge impact on the market. ”
“Obviously, you need to be careful, especially if you are opening leveraged positions,” Bloodgood cautioned.
While Bitcoin “succeeded to close the weekly candlestick above key levels” last week, Bloodgood said, “Recently, after breaking out in either direction, both sides have not been able to follow up well,” Bloodgood said. “There's a lot of indecision.”
“However, we are still slowly trending higher and making new lows, which gives me confidence that the bulls are still in control here,” he said. . “The big test will come at the current high of just above $73,700.”
“Not much has changed, other than BTC getting back to the $70,000 level,” Bloodgood said. “The timing is uncertain, as BTC is about to halve immediately after creating a new ATH, which is not the case in a normal cycle. So we are definitely in uncharted territory.”
“Gold's momentum is unstoppable. New week, new all-time highs. There's not much you can do now but watch it fly,” he said, briefly touching on gold.
Overall, Bloodgood said this bull market cycle in the crypto market is different from all its predecessors so far, so traders will rely on fractal patterns and previous cycles to determine what will happen next. He pointed out that it is wise to trade the chart in front of you instead. .
“Aside from Bitcoin ATH before the halving, another thing that makes this cycle unusual is that even though BTC is barely above its previous ATH, meme coins have garnered so much attention. And we're collecting them very persistently,” he said. “While some may see this as the biggest signal, I think it has more to do with the ‘standards-friendly’ nature of meme coins.”
“Instead of understanding the complex technical details of a project or worrying about how and when venture capitalists will let it go, many new entrants to the market are motivated by how interesting and catchy it is. “I feel it's much easier to guess something like that,” he added. . “Of course, this is still largely just a gamble, and every meme coin that pulls 100x has countless lags, and even the ones that pump most frequently will eventually lose liquidity and sustainability.”
“Having said that, there are still projects out there that are doing great technically, and I believe that later in the cycle capital will start to rotate more and more into these tokens,” he concluded. Ta.
In the short term, Bitcoin is likely to trade sideways and consolidate until some time after the halving, according to Michael van de Poppe, founder of MN Trading.
#bitcoin Continuing to integrate.
It's not that special, but there is probably another ATH peak, and that should be before the halving. pic.twitter.com/DEzeeHP5ZS
— Michael van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) April 9, 2024
Altcoins follow Bitcoin in decline
The altcoin market was hit hard by the Bitcoin pullback, with only 10 of the top 200 tokens gaining more than 2% and the majority posting losses.
Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360
Theta Fuel (TFUEL) led the gainers with a 24.5% rise, followed by Saga (SAGA) with a 10.4% rise and MX Token (MX) with a 9.4% rise. The biggest decliners were meme coin Dogwife Hut (WIF), down 14.9%, Arkham (ARKM), down 13.9%, and Wormhole (W), down 13.5%.
Currently, the total market capitalization of virtual currencies is $2.6 trillion, with Bitcoin controlling 52.3%.
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