University leaders in the Dakotas and Minnesota have known for years about an impending enrollment cliff (due to the Great Recession of 2008) that could lead to declining enrollment. However, some believe the impact will be less severe in rural states.
In 2007, the number of births in the United States reached a record high of 4.316 million. But as the national recession began the following year, people began having fewer children. In 2010, the number of births in the United States was just over 4 million, and this decline is closely related to the economic downturn.
An article published last year on Bestcolleges.com said, “The steep decline starting in 2025 resembles a cliff. The number of 18-year-olds will decline by 15% over the next four years.”
But several school leaders say it might not be so bad here.
/ Provided by: DSU
“We've been planning for the enrollment cliff since 2017. We know that universities don't necessarily change on a dime. This is a fairly large organization. Yes, and it's pretty complex overall,” said Janet Kilgore, vice president for strategic enrollment management at the University of North Dakota. “We have considered different strategies and ways of thinking about higher education in today's changing and evolving environment. Masu.”
Higher education institutions will need to adjust their business models because fewer students will be attending college, which will mean less tuition revenue. In some cases, it could lead to budget cuts, layoffs and the elimination of some majors, Forbes reported earlier this year.
The registration cliff does not affect all states equally. Some states are located in areas with the fastest population declines, and students aiming to attend college are choosing to attend schools in warmer states. In addition to demographics and climate, Forbes reports that students are leaving regional public universities for larger public universities and land-grant colleges with larger student aid funds and the ability to offer more financial aid. It was pointed out that there is a tendency towards
Recruitment challenges vary from state to state and institution to institution. For example, the number of high school graduates in Minnesota is likely to decline, due in part to lower birth rates after the Great Recession, so the state created the North Star Promise Scholarship Program. This program provides tuition assistance to Minnesota residents from home. students whose income is below her $80,000—to stabilize enrollment and make college more affordable.
The creation of the North Star Promise has sent ripples through the region, particularly in North Dakota, where universities recruit large numbers of Minnesota students. In response, some universities are offering unique programs that counter the North Star promise. For example, in November, North Dakota State University announced a new $3.5 million scholarship option.
Dr. Jose Marie Griffith, president of Dakota State University in Madison, South Dakota, remains optimistic. She believes the combination of workforce demand for specific skills and the degrees her DSU offers will help protect the university from the enrollment cliff expected to begin in fall 2025. Masu. The university has experienced consistent growth for approximately 25 years.
“We have been benefiting from DSU's online teaching for some time, which gives us an international reach and also protects us. We are completely dependent on people coming to campus. “In that sense, I think we're in pretty good shape. You can never fully predict what's going to happen,” she said.
The number of students at South Dakota's public universities increased by 2% last fall, marking the second consecutive year that enrollment in the system has increased, according to the South Dakota Legislature. The total number of students in South Dakota's public university system across its six campuses is 34,370, an increase of 2% from the previous fall. The system's first-year freshmen totaled 5,341, an increase of 2.6% compared to the class of 2022 and an increase of more than 6% compared to the class of 2021.
South Dakota State University, a Morrill Act land-grant university in South Dakota, has a fall 2023 enrollment of 11,505, with students coming from 48 states and 74 countries. The University of South Dakota's fall 2023 enrollment will be 9,868 students, about the same as last year's 9,856 students, but less than 2019's 9,920 students.
“This year's freshmen are part of the largest incoming class of students in the last 10 years, which is great news for our school and state,” Board Executive Director Nathan Rooks said in the release.
/ Provided by: Poppy Mills-NDDOT
North Dakota was the only state with a small increase in births (0.7%) from 2008 to 2009. All other states and the District of Columbia had either no change or a decline in births during this period. Pew Research Center.
Dr. Mark Hagelot, chancellor of the University System of North Dakota, believes the cliff is likely to impact industrial states more than rural states. Closures across the country due to the coronavirus pandemic also affected enrollment, but there was a positive side for North Dakota.
“For the past four years, North Dakota (enrollment) has exceeded the national average. At a time when everyone else experienced negative declines, ours went down. Before the nation did, we became aggressive,” he said. “North Dakota State has proven that our students, faculty, staff and campus are more resilient and bounce back faster than the national average.”
/ Provided by: Poppy Mills-NDDOT
Dr. Jennifer Weber, director of institutional research for the University System of North Dakota, said 2011 was the state's highest point in population and coincided with the end of the Great Recession.
“When we had that Great Recession, more people went back to college than we've probably ever seen before. If you look at our trends and draw lines where lines should be drawn, ignore the recession. “Our growth has been pretty consistent. We only had that decline because of the huge influx of students during the recession,” she said.
/ Provided by: UND
There is a talent shortage across all industries and sectors, and some companies are leveraging technology to fill the gap.
“If there was ever a time to go back to school, now is the time to go back to school, as the workforce, artificial intelligence, and digitalization are rapidly changing and changing the landscape,” Hagerott said. “There's a nursing shortage, and we're working to alleviate that. There's a shortage of nurses from kindergarten through high school, and there are a lot of opportunities if you can come to school and get the necessary qualifications.”
Kilgore said UND's enrollment has remained fairly stable over the past seven years. In September 2023, the Grand Forks Herald reported that UND's enrollment had exceeded 14,000 students, an increase of just over 2% from the fall 2022 semester. Her four other universities in the state also saw increases in fall enrollment. Dakota University Bottineau (1,180 students, 100 more students than last year). Lake Regional State University (1,810 students, up 131 from last year) and Valley City State University (1,754 students, up 96 from last year).
/ Provided by Shauna Noelle Cill
The school's student satisfaction survey shows that, overall, students are very satisfied with their education at UND. Having flexible options for students is an advantage for any university.
“We have a lot of transfer students and adults who want to upgrade their credentials so they can incorporate online classes into their daily routine. We also have students who are physically in the area and want to take some classes on campus. , they're also adopting a high flex of taking some classes online. They're creating a hybrid experience that fits what they need for work-school-life balance,” she said. Ta.
This article was written for Prairie Business, a free monthly business magazine published by the Grand Forks Herald that covers business trends in the Dakotas and Minnesota. To receive your free digital edition each month, please visit:
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