We spent most of the spring talking about the fascinating teams in baseball.
Hey, the Dodgers are packed. Oh, look at that stupid Braves lineup. How did the Rangers find two such great rookies? And how do the Orioles continue to lose badly in the draft? The whole thing looks like reservation TV to me.
However, there is a downside to this as well. Some MLB clubs have little hope for 2024, even on Opening Day, the ultimate moment of optimism.
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The Rockies and Athletics were expected to lose more than 100 games this year. The White Sox and Nationals were locked in at least 90 losses. The Angels and Royals have a very slim chance of making the playoffs, so you'll have to squint.
And on Thursday's opening day, the six teams predicted to be the worst in baseball this year, confirmation bias or not, looked, well, all of them terrible.
Colorado will be mentioned for the first time after losing 16-1 to Arizona. The Diamondbacks scored 14 of those points in the third inning, a bottomless onslaught that didn't even result in a home run. Among the hits were rockets. Some were well-placed bloops and see-eye hits. But no one in Arizona was hard to reach.
This wasn't a baseball game. It was a Peanuts cartoon. And unfortunately, this wasn't even about Coors Field.Colorado is on the road.
Mike Trout's home run in the first inning was the only highlight of the Angels' 11-3 loss to Baltimore. Baseball's Bartleby leadoff man Anthony Rendon opened the season 0-for-4 with two strikeouts and one fielding error. For some reason, the Angels didn't have a winning record during the six-year era of Trout and Shohei Ohtani, but this year's model seems to be even worse. Will summer trout finally become a topic of trade?
I feel bad for the baseball fans in Oakland. They deserve better. The Athletics' offense had a poor performance against Cleveland, allowing no runs on four hits and only 13 strikeouts and one walk. Where are Brad Pitt and Jonah Hill when you need them?
The White Sox and Royals had great performances on the mound, but they also need to score. Chicago allowed just three hits and no runs against the Tigers. Michael Garcia hit a leadoff homer for the Royals, but they never threatened again.
The Nationals scored two runs in the final minutes of the game, but were never competitive and lost to Cincinnati 8-2. Better days are ahead for CJ Abrams and Lane Thomas, who were a combined 0-for-8 with four strikeouts.
As fantasy players and baseball analysts, we know that it's better not to overreact to certain events. Baseball's regular season is a long one, and it's important to collect and stabilize data. All of these mediocre teams have the potential to bounce back and make an upset in Game 2. Even the worst club in baseball will win sometimes.
Then again, there's a reason why the Rockies, Nationals, Athletics, and White Sox have just under a 2% chance of making the playoffs. Bad things can be bad. And look at some of the starting pitchers on Opening Day: Kyle Freeland, Patrick Sandoval, Josiah Gray, Alex Wood.
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Let's be fair. Some of the best teams and players in baseball played a huge role in making non-contender teams look bad. Corbin Burnes, the AL Cy Young Award candidate, had 11 strikeouts. Shane Bieber, who prepared with Driveline this winter, also struck out 11 batters. The Diamondbacks just finished playing in the World Series. Tarik Skubal continued his bagel parade late last season, freezing the White Sox. Cincinnati's fun lineup is going to give many teams a hard time this year, especially at home.
Still, why run uphill if you don't have to? Fantasy managers need to know where the soft landings are. We're going to attack Colorado's pitchers all year long. We will be streaming most of the AL Central Division lineups, as well as the West Division matchups against the Athletics and Angels. When I find Washington on my schedule, I feel like I have a bounce in my legs.
closing time
Detroit's victory was punctuated by Jason Foley, who recorded the final two outs. Last year's stopper Alex Lange was not used. While 2023 was a volatile year for Lange, it was a quiet but solid year for Foley. I thought Foley could threaten the job at some point in 2024. I didn't expect things to change so quickly, and maybe there's more to this story. However, manager AJ Hinch is a smart player, and he expects the Tigers to win the AL Central Division title this year. Foley has great guessing skills. Even after the last day's active trades, he's still registered in just his 19% of Yahoo leagues.
The Rangers just won a championship and have plans to return to the World Series. However, I am concerned about the back of the bullpen. Jose Leclerc made a save on Thursday, but it was an abysmal one with two walks and a wild pitch. This came on the heels of a troublesome spring (5.06 ERA, 1.69 WHIP) and inconsistent career. David Robertson pitched 10 innings and avoided two walks of his own to earn the win. He turns 39 in the last two weeks, but he's an interesting spec play here. Josh Sborz and Kirby Yates had pitched scoreless innings before Leclerc, and there is no shortage of candidates. (All of my former closers live in Texas.) Robertson is my preferred fantasy target right now, but the net cast is wide.
Anthony Volpe goes all over the place.
It's easy to be held back by Volpe's .209 batting average last year, but that's beside the point. He has 21 home runs, 24 stolen bases, and a Gold Glove Award, among other positive accomplishments. Volpe also drew 52 walks. He's not bad for a player in his age 22 season.
Volpe's average should not be taken at face value either. According to Statcast metrics, he deserved an additional 21 points in batting average. He won't make the All-Star team with a batting average of .230 (the expected average based on the data), but he's still a kid. The arrow points upwards.
And let's evaluate what Volpe did in the opener against Houston. The Astros served Volpe 17 pitches outside the strike zone, The second year student swung at one of them.. Spit, spit, spit. Wait for the pitch. Only once did Volpe swing outside the zone, and he got a hit.
Volpe will start the year in New York's No. 6 spot, but it's hard to imagine him going any lower than that. And I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up moving up to the leadoff or No. 2 position. If the draft hasn't run yet, target Volpe. His Yahoo ADP for the past week was a reasonable 123.3.
Get ready for the battle between Cruz and Dela Cruz.
As my colleague Jake Mintz pointed out this week, Ellie de la Cruz and O'Neal Cruz will be linked throughout their careers. Same department, similar name. Both are huge, modern shortstops from the Dominican, blessed with plus power and able to create outrageous shows. Of course, sometimes there are bumps in the road, swings and misses, and adjustments need to be made. Dela Cruz batted below .200 last year, but Cruz missed most of the season due to injury.
So it was fun to watch them both fill out the box score on Thursday. Dela Cruz had a hit, a walk, a stolen base, and two runs scored.Cruz casually patted him. Opposite field home run in Miami. Of course, they combined for him to have five strikeouts, and that part of the game may never go away, even as they mature and improve. But I'm looking forward to watching this fight for the rest of the decade.
If the draft hasn't happened yet, Cruz looks like the better value to Yahoo. Dela Cruz posted an ADP of 31.1 last week, while Cruz was down three rounds to 65.3. But you decide what values mean and what value they have to you. Sometimes you have to click on the fun selection.
This game is supposed to be fun, right? Does anyone remember laughing?
