Although cloud forecasts may be unreliable until several days before an eclipse, computer simulations can give forecasters a general idea of where either clear skies or clouds are most likely to occur. We are starting to see weather patterns that give us an idea.
Here is the latest forecast as of Friday morning ET. Updated regularly as the eclipse approaches. The next update will be on Saturday afternoon.
Cloudy forecast for April 8th
Percentage of sky covered by clouds
Cloudy forecast for April 8th
Percentage of sky covered by clouds
Cloudy forecast for April 8th
Percentage of sky covered by clouds
Cloudy forecast for April 8th
Percentage of sky covered by clouds
Note that historically, Texas has had the best chance of being cloud-free, while areas from Ohio to Maine have had the best chance of having thick cloud cover.
The current pattern simulated by computer models appears to be more favorable than usual for sunshine along at least the central and northern parts of the total path. The southern region, which typically has a higher chance of clear skies, is a bigger question mark.
The predicted pattern shows high pressure over the eastern United States, promoting sunshine. A low pressure system is forming in the west, and there is a tendency for cloud cover to increase.
High pressure promotes sunshine, but the clockwise flow around it tends to favor winds from the south to the west, which can pull in moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and create clouds and moisture. Therefore, if this pattern holds, areas of the south-central United States, including Texas, will likely experience cloud cover.
This pattern could also result in storms forming just east of the Rocky Mountains, spreading clouds, showers and storms across the southern Plains and lower Mississippi River basin. However, it is too early to determine the location and timing of clouds and precipitation. In the future this far out, models could be a day or two earlier or later, depending on how quickly such systems develop and move.
Percentage of sky covered by clouds
Percentage of sky covered by clouds
Percentage of sky covered by clouds
The area of high pressure currently predicted by models in the Northeast tends to have a better-than-average chance of at least partial sunshine from the Ohio Valley to New England. However, please note that spring weather is particularly variable in this region, so this outlook may change.
We would like to emphasize that cloud forecasts are highly uncertain and may not be reliable until around April 5th or 6th. Still, cloud cover often depends on processes that occur at very small scales in the atmosphere. It's so small that the model doesn't have enough detailed data to simulate it accurately. This initial outlook is only intended to provide a very general guide and we do not recommend changing your plans on this basis.
Here are preliminary predictions for some large cities in the path of totality:
- Dallas (62% cloud cover): The model leans toward mostly cloudy conditions, but the weather pattern could favor a setup of clear skies for the first half of the day, increasing clouds and a chance of storms in the afternoon. There is a gender. Typically, thunderstorm days are not completely cloudy and become partly sunny in the afternoon. Warm, humid conditions seem to be good.
- Little Rock (62% cloud cover): Little Rock may be near a war zone between high pressure to the east and low pressure to the west. Whether it ends up being cloudy or not is basically a coin toss. If clouds develop, they may occur later in the day.
- Indianapolis (36% cloud cover): Indianapolis looks likely to have a good chance of clear skies as there is near high pressure to counteract the clouds. However, it may not be far from where clouds and raindrops are possible in the west. The temperature should be warm.
- Cleveland (31% cloud cover): The chance of clouds in Cleveland will be lower than usual as the city is expected to be under the influence of high pressure. This is a very uncertain decision due to our proximity to the Great Lakes and the high cloud cover. Temperatures may be higher than average.
- Buffalo (35% cloud cover): Like Cleveland, Buffalo has a higher than normal chance of clear skies. But the city is located near the Great Lakes cloud machine, so the uncertainty here is high as well. Moderate to warm temperatures are preferred.
- Burlington, VA (51% cloud cover): It's a cloudy time of year in Burlington, but high pressure hovering nearby increases the chance of clear skies. Mild to warm temperatures are expected.
If your city isn't listed above, you can search for cloud forecasts for any location in the table below.
The forecast maps, considerations, and tables above will be updated regularly until the date of the solar eclipse when the forecast is most reliable. Bookmark this page and check back from time to time.
Forecast data is from the Bureau of Meteorology. National blend of models. The type of solar eclipse data is us navy.
Emily Eng, Tim Meko, Szu Yu Chen, Emily Sabens and Dan Stillman contributed to this report.
