CNN
—
Voters in Michigan and Pennsylvania (two states that flipped from red to blue in the 2020 presidential election) began this year's general election campaign more dissatisfied than satisfied with the candidates they had to choose. Attitudes toward the race are changing, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS, where a significant but significant minority say they are open to candidates.
A poll of registered voters shows Donald Trump and Joe Biden in a neck-to-neck race in Pennsylvania (46% each), while Trump leads in Michigan (50% for Trump). , Biden 42%). Both polls were conducted after Trump and Biden each won enough delegates to win their party's presidential nomination, according to CNN estimates.
Polls suggest that in this rematch with Trump, Biden's 2020 coalition may be more intact in Pennsylvania than in Michigan. Polls in Pennsylvania show Biden leading among women, voters of color, college graduates and independents, and nearly tied with Trump among voters under 35. But in Michigan, women are split almost evenly, and Biden's lead among voters of color is narrow. And among independents and young voters, Trump has a large lead. In both states, Mr. Biden has retained about 9 in 10 of his self-proclaimed 2020 voters, while Mr. Trump has retained slightly more of his own 2020 voters.
Considering their options in a rematch between Biden and Trump, the majority of voters in both states say they've already made up their minds, but about a quarter in each state may change their mind between now and the election. is the answer. That's more than enough to swing the final outcome in these two pivotal states, which Biden narrowly won in 2020.
There is further room for movement among some major subgroups. In Michigan, 45% of independents and 41% of voters under 35 say they are undecided, and in Pennsylvania, 32% of independents and 34% of young voters say so. .
In both states, fewer than half of voters say they are satisfied with their presidential choices (47% in Pennsylvania and 46% in Michigan). Satisfaction ratings in Michigan have fallen since the fall survey was conducted before the nominating contest was held, as former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley's now-suspended race for the Republican nomination gained momentum. (53% were satisfied in the same survey). The drop was steepest among independents (from 46% satisfied in the fall poll to 29% now) and smaller among Republicans (from 71% to 65%).
Majorities of voters in both states say a second term for Mr. Trump would bring fundamental changes to the United States, but only about a quarter say the same about a second term for Mr. Biden. . While Biden's own supporters are less likely than Trump's supporters to say that a Biden second term will bring about fundamental changes, both Biden and Trump supporters believe that Trump's second term will bring about fundamental changes. It claims to bring about dramatic changes in the country. In both states, more people see the changes Trump might bring as good than bad. For Biden, just over 4 in 10 people in each state say a second term won't bring about any significant changes, and only a few say they expect the changes to be good or bad. The opinions of those who think are a little more evenly divided.
View this interactive content on CNN.com
In both states, the elections are more like referendums on the former president than on the current president. A majority of Trump supporters in both regions say they are voting primarily to express support for Trump rather than opposition to Biden, while Biden supporters say they are motivated by opposition to Trump.
And while Biden's approval ratings are below the surface in both states (only 40% of voters in Pennsylvania and 35% of voters in Michigan), his approval ratings remain in double digits among those who disapprove of his performance as president. (In Pennsylvania, 12% of those who disapprove support him against President Trump, and in Michigan, 13% support him). In 2020, Trump won just 2% of those who voted disapproving of his performance in each of these states, according to exit polls.
The hypothetical four-way matchup, which includes Trump and Biden, plus Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West, suggests that support for Kennedy is strong in both states. In Pennsylvania, Trump is 40%, Biden is 38%, Kennedy is 16%, and West is 4%, while in Michigan, Trump is 40%, Biden is 34%, Kennedy is 18%, and West is 4%. It becomes. In both states, fewer than one-fifth of those who support candidates other than Biden and Trump say they are enthusiastic about their choice, and about half in both states say they are primarily interested in other options. They say they support the candidate because they don't like it.
Majorities of voters in Michigan and Pennsylvania view both Biden and Trump unfavorably, and about one in six voters in each state view both Biden and Trump unfavorably, the so-called are “double haters” (17% in Michigan, 18% in Pennsylvania). In a hypothetical matchup involving third-party candidates, multiple double-negative voters in each state would vote for Kennedy, even though a large portion of this group said they did not know enough about Kennedy to form an opinion. has expressed support.
Most voters say they expect Biden and Trump to still be the party's nominee by the time the presidential election is held (55% in Michigan and 60% in Pennsylvania say it is extremely likely). ). About two-thirds of Biden supporters say it is very likely in both states, while 56% of Trump supporters in Pennsylvania and 49% in Michigan feel the same way.
Asked to rate how well each candidate matched their expectations in terms of policy positions, empathy, temperament, acuity and stamina, registered voters in each state were similarly likely to agree with Mr. Biden's and Mr. Trump's policies. , were negative about the ability of people like themselves to understand problems. Mr. Biden scores especially poorly on sharpness and stamina, while Mr. Trump has the worst numbers on temperament. Roughly two-thirds of states said that Biden's sharpness and stamina are not what they want in a president (69% in Michigan, 64% in Pennsylvania), and a majority of 61% in both states said Trump respondents said that their temperament is not what they want in a president. They want the president.
About half of Pennsylvania voters and 44% of Michigan voters would disqualify Trump from the presidency if the charges against him related to attempts to overturn the 2020 election are true. That's more than about 4 in 10 people in each state who believe they are innocent of the charges. It said the rest related to his ability to serve and questioned his suitability for the job but did not disqualify him.
President Trump's false claims since 2020 that election results were rigged against him have raised widespread questions among Trump supporters about the legitimacy of this election process. More than 7 in 10 Trump supporters in each state say they believe the false claim that Biden did not legitimately receive enough votes to become president in 2020. And looking to the future, Biden supporters in both states are about 60 points more likely than Trump supporters to say so. They are extremely confident that the votes in this year's presidential election will be accurately cast and counted.
Roughly four out of 10 voters in both states say the economy is their top priority when considering choosing a president, with defense of democracy coming in second, with around a quarter citing the economy as their top priority. Immigration and abortion were also cited by more than 10% of voters in each state. For Biden voters in both states, protecting democracy is a top priority, but for President Trump voters, the economy is the issue by a wide margin. More than 20% of women supporting Biden in both states say abortion and reproductive rights are a top priority, significantly higher than other voters.
When asked which of the two leading candidates would be better able to address several key issues, voters favored Trump over Biden by wide margins in both states on the economy, immigration, and the situation in Israel and Gaza. are doing. Mr. Trump holds a slight edge over Mr. Biden when it comes to handling the United States' role in world affairs. Biden outperforms Trump by wide margins in both states for his ability to handle abortion policy, and in Pennsylvania he is more trusted than Trump for his handling of American democracy. But Michigan voters were almost evenly split on the issue.
In each of these two states, Democrats hold Senate seats on the ballot this fall. Democrats hold a narrow majority in the House of Representatives, meaning that depending on the outcome of the presidential election, Republicans could take control of the Senate with just one seat flip. Voters in both states are divided on whether a Republican takeover of the Senate is good or bad for the country. Forty-five percent of Michigan voters say the country will be better off if Republicans win the Senate majority in November, and 35% say the country will be better off. In Pennsylvania, 42% worsened, 38% improved, and 19% remained the same.
In Pennsylvania, Democratic Sen. Bob Casey, who is running for re-election, is viewed generally favorably (33% favorable, 25% unfavorable, 42% no opinion), while his top Republican rival Horse David McCormick remains largely unknown (13% favorable, 17% unfavorable, 70% no opinion).
In Michigan, none of the leading candidates for the vacant seat (Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow announced her retirement last year) are particularly well-known or the most likely challengers. A majority say they have no opinion about Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin or former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers, and those who do have an opinion are sharply divided on whether it's positive or negative. Actor Hill Harper, who is running for the Democratic nomination, has even less recognition than Slotkin (about 86% have no opinion). On the Republican side, former Rep. Peter Meyer has a similar name recognition to Mr. Rogers, while former Rep. Justin Amash, who became an independent before leaving the House and is running for the Republican nomination, is largely unknown. (83% have no opinion of Mr. Rogers).
These CNN polls were conducted online and by phone from March 13 to 18 by SSRS. In Michigan, he was surveyed with a random sample of 1,097 registered voters, and in Pennsylvania, he was surveyed with a random sample of 1,132 registered voters. Michigan's full sample results have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points. Pennsylvania's results are 3.8 points.
This heading has been updated.
CNN's Ed Wu and Nicholas Anastacio contributed to this report.
