Kentucky was dancing when it all started. literally. John Wall, a five-star freshman and anchor of John Calipari's first freshman class at the University of Kentucky during the 2009-10 season, went viral for his dance moves, which were imitated by fans across the country. From there, he went on to win a national title in 2012 with future NBA superstar Anthony Davis. The team started the 2014-15 season with a 38-0 record and advanced to the Final Four. And then the glory stopped.
The third-seeded Wildcats lost 80-76 to No. 14 seed Oakland in the first round of the men's NCAA Tournament on Thursday night, extending a continued trend of blueblood programs acquiring the best players in the country. To translate that talent into key postseason victories over the past decade. Kudos to the Golden Grizzlies for outscoring Kentucky for 40 minutes and Jack Gaelke's explosive 32-point performance.
But for a team that has won one NCAA Tournament since the 2019 edition, the future seems uncertain after recent losses. ESPN's Myron Medcalf, John Gassaway and Jeff Borzello discuss the importance of this loss for Kentucky and the win for Oakland.
What was the most important moment in the match?
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Oakland's Dagger 3 spurs Kentucky upset
DQ Cole of No. 14 seed Oakland made a dagger three from the corner as the Golden Grizzlies avoided an upset against No. 3 seed Kentucky in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.
John Gasaway: With apologies to the great Jack Gaelke, Corner 3 DQ Cole's shot with 37 seconds left in the game was decisive. Kentucky was within one point, and it looked like the Wildcats would win in the end. Cole then made the shot that sealed Britain's fate.
Myron Medcalf: From the 8:14 mark to the 4:43 mark of the second half, Oakland made just one field goal. In this section, Kentucky finally managed to break free and cut Oakland's lead to 64-62. But 90 seconds later, the Wildcats were up by six points again. They took a shot and missed it again. They made some late shots to keep it close, but the early goals gave them a chance to attack, but they couldn't do it.
Jeff Borzello: The moment Goelke checked in with 15 minutes and 55 seconds left in the first half. He attempted two 3-pointers in his first 32 seconds on the floor and missed both, but brought a confidence and energy that never went away. He ultimately produced one of the legendary performances in recent NCAA Tournament history, finishing with 32 points on 10-of-20 3-point shooting off the bench. He did not attempt a two-point field goal. This is consistent with the rest of the season, where he made 3's on 327 attempts and only made 2's on 8 attempts.
How significant was this loss for Kentucky?
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Gonzaga-McNeese fans cheer on Oakland's win over Kentucky
Gonzaga-McNeese fans cheer for Oakland's come-from-behind victory over Kentucky.
Gasaway: This is significant because it comes just after a loss to No. 15 seed St. Peter's two years ago. Now it's happened again and this is not the way things work in Kentucky. Let's look at history and consider what Big Blue Nation fans have come to expect based purely on reality. The Wildcats went 26-1 in the round of 64 from 1988 to 2019. Currently, in the past three tournaments, Great Britain has just one win and two losses in that round. That's not allowed.
Medcalf: This is important because it raises legitimate questions about Calipari's approach to winning in this landscape that is changing in real time. Coach Calipari reportedly told his team after the game, “This hurts.'' The scars of this loss will be long-lasting and could ultimately lead to a change in leadership of college basketball's winningest program.
What do the Wildcats need to change going forward?
Borzero: Stylistically, this Kentucky team was different and looked better equipped to win in 2024 and win in March than Kentucky teams of the past. Calipari has recruited a ton of quick, dynamic guards who can play fast, make threes, and create their own shots whenever they want. And even that didn't work. In a world where teams start with three or four seniors or graduate transfers, it remains difficult to win the NCAA Tournament with multiple freshmen in the lineup. But it's unlikely the Wildcats will suddenly ignore high school players, given where Calipari has had the most success recruiting. However, a few more moves may be necessary to balance the roster.
What does this mean for John Calipari's future in Lexington? And is there an obvious solution?
Borzero: That's the elephant in the room. The $33 million elephant. If Calipari is waived by the program after this season, Calipari will be paid slightly more than that amount. In theory, there is a way for Kentucky to come up with the money to buy out the remaining contracts. With zero Sweet 16 appearances and one tournament win since 2019, a large portion of Kentucky's fan base would likely want Calipari gone.
The question is who to turn to after Calipari. Baylor's Scott Drew just announced he will remain at Baylor after Louisville knocked on the door for the current opening. Alabama's Nate Oats just signed a contract extension in a huge buyout. Iowa State's TJ Otzelberger's poaching will cost about $18 million. UW's Dan Hurley probably won't be leaving Storrs. Will Kentucky attack someone like Billy Donovan? Between Calipari's guaranteed money, the acquisition of the next head coach, and the new coach's salary, an investment of more than $50 million could be needed. But it's definitely a topic of conversation.
Medcalf: Kentucky's fan base will be more furious than ever. Divorce rumors have been going on for years, and this latest loss could finalize everything. The acquisition of Calipari is a big factor. But the program is backed by people with deep pockets, who may not have to pay for the acquisition all at once.
Calipari has dominated the one-and-done industry, attracting top high school recruits and elite transfers. But when it comes to NIL and portals, even blue blood isn't safe. The Wildcats will need a coach who can navigate a rapidly changing situation. There is no clear successor who can replicate Calipari's success and handle the pressures of coaching in Lexington. Like Jeff said, he probably won't leave. But if Calipari were to back out, he would call Dan Hurley's men and ask for a number that might make him think about it and go from there.
How far can Auckland go?
Gasaway: Jack Gaelke is the most prolific 3-point shooter on the field. Trey Townsend was named Horizon Player of the Year. Oakland's defeat of Kentucky was a surprise, but not at all unimaginable. Greg Kampe has a team that can score from both the inside and outside, as the Wildcats have learned all too well. It's not great for UK to compare recent tournament upsets, but this Golden Grizzlies team is almost as good on paper as St. Peter's was two years ago. A lot had to go right for the Peacocks to reach his 2022 Elite Eight, but they got there.
Borzero: Even if Goelke doesn't hit 10 more threes, don't discount Oakland's win over the winner of Texas Tech and North Carolina State. Townsend was unable to guard all season, regardless of the game. He had 17 points and 12 rebounds against Kentucky, and in the regular season he had 19 points and 10 rebounds against Illinois and 28 points against Xavier. Rocket Watts is playing at a high major level and is not afraid of the moment. This team has been battle-tested during the non-conference portion of the season and is playing some high-octane, fearless basketball.
