Hogan's sudden announcement of his candidacy last month was largely seen as a conflict between Congressman David Trone (D-Md.) and Prince George's County Executive Angela Alsobrooks (D-Md.). overturned. A post-UMD poll found that if the general election were held today, voters said they would support Hogan over Tron (49 percent to 37 percent). and Hogan vs. Oldsbrooks, 50 percent vs. 36 percent.
Opinion polls show Tron with a narrow lead in the primary race for the reliably blue seat being vacated by retiring Sen. Ben Cardin (D-Md.). Thirty-four percent of registered Democrats support Trone, while 27% support Alsobrooks. The primary remains wide open, even though Mr. Tron has spent more than $23 million to Mr. Albrooks' $2 million. Nearly four in 10 Democratic voters (39%) have not yet chosen a primary candidate.
Almost half of all registered voters have no opinion about Tron, and a majority have no opinion about Alsobrooks.
With Mr. Hogan drawing national attention to what had been a sleepy race, Democrats are turning the May 14 primary into a question of who can more effectively help Democrats control the Senate. I started throwing it at That message could make it difficult for Mr. Hogan to build the bipartisan coalition of Republicans, independents and moderate Democrats that has helped him win statewide.
“The big problem for Democrats right now is that many people in the state don't know who either of these candidates are,” said Michael Hammer, a political science professor and director of the Center for Democracy and Civic Engagement at the University of Maryland. There is no such thing.” We conducted a poll with the Post newspaper.
“They seem to be doing well in places where people know them,” he said. “But so many people don't know who they are. … With the primaries right around the corner, there's still plenty of time for both sides to do things differently.”
Post UMD A poll of 1,004 registered Maryland voters conducted March 5-12 found that 55% of voters want a Democratic Senate majority, while 35% support Republicans. I found out that it was.
It also found that a clear majority of voters in both parties admired Hogan, who promoted a brand of bipartisanship in a state where registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans two to one.
64% of registered voters have a favorable view of Mr. Hogan, compared to 33% for Mr. Tron and 26% for Mr. Alsobrooks. Two in 10 people have an unfavorable opinion of Hogan and Tron, and slightly fewer have a similar opinion of Alsobrooks. Only 13% of people had no opinion of Hogan, who left office with the highest approval rating ever for a two-term governor.
If the general election were held today, voters say they would support Hogan over Tron, 49 percent to 37 percent, according to the poll. And Hogan was 50 percent to 36 percent against Oldsbrooks.
“I look at these results and don't consider him an underdog,” Hammer said. “He looks very nice.”
With the general election just months away, the race remains in flux as the Democratic Party has yet to rally around a candidate.
The poll's margin of error is plus or minus 3.3 points for all voters and 4.5 points for registered Democrats. The survey was conducted among a random sample of registered voters across the state, with 64% being interviewed live on their cell phones, 15% on their landlines, and 21% after receiving a cell phone text invitation. I had an online interview.
Jerome Tidwell, 61, a Democrat from Prince George's County, said: is still undecided. He doesn't know much about what Tron means, he said, except that Tron uses his wealth to fund his campaigns. He also contrasted the responses of Mr. Hogan's office and Mr. Alsobrooks' office when Mr. Tidwell called for traffic improvements at the intersection where the fatality occurred, and said he plans to consider Mr. Hogan in November. He said that.
“It's not always zero. [on Alsobrooks], but I'm doing some research,'' said Tidwell, who works in finance. “I'm watching [candidate web] I want to read the page and see what exactly David Trone is bringing to the table. He's having a town hall meeting and I'll be there to ask him questions. ”
Maryland voters elected Joe Biden over Donald Trump in 2020 by a 33 percentage point margin, one of the largest Democratic margins in the nation and the first in Maryland since 1980. It doesn't send any Republicans to the Senate.
But polls show that a significant percentage of Maryland voters want Democratic control of the Senate but would still vote to send Hogan to the Senate. There will likely be a caucus with Republicans.
Nearly one in five voters (18%) say they would prefer a Democratic-controlled Senate; I would probably vote for Hogan over Tron or Oldsbrooks. Two-thirds of voters are Democrats, and more than half consider themselves “moderates,” according to the poll.
David Bartgis, 43, supports “Hogan, don't even ask questions” in the Senate, even though he hopes Democrats control the chamber.
“I don't trust the Republican Party on almost anything right now,” said Bartgis, an art dealer and independent voter from Frederick. But he has confidence in Hogan, calling him “probably the best governor we've ever had.”
“Honestly, I don't think he'll get any less support than Republicans or Democrats,” Bartgis said. “He always seemed like he didn't toe the party line. He never seemed like he was a culture warrior conservative from the beginning. He seemed like he was doing his own thing. I’ve always looked up to him.”
But many other Hogan supporters won't send him to the Senate if it means Republicans gain control. Democrat Stephanie Sandler, 52, has high praise for Hogan as governor, but she doubts he will be the same type of politician among the “radical” Republicans in the U.S. Senate. He said he was worried that
“At the state level, he's been great,” said Sandler, Glen Burnie's executive director. “He was very bipartisan, working on both sides. But what I worry about is that if he goes to Washington, D.C., things will change. Either they won't be able to do it, or worse, they'll somehow be persuaded to caucus with extremist groups in the Republican Party.”
Popular governors in other states have faced similar partisan crosswinds when trying to win federal office. For example, in 2018, former Tennessee Governor Phil Bredesen ran for the U.S. Senate as a Democrat. A poll conducted by Vanderbilt University in the spring of the same year showed his name recognition at 84% and his favorability rating among voters who knew him at 67%. Bredesen's favorability rating among Tennessee Republicans at the time was 52 percent. That's slightly lower than Hogan's 61% approval rating among Maryland Democrats today. Bredesen lost the general election to Republican Rep. Marsha Blackburn by an 11-point margin.
All of Maryland's leading Democrats have focused on how a Republican-controlled Senate would affect Maryland voters, particularly on abortion rights. Hogan personally opposes abortion, but says he has no intention of changing existing rights. In an interview two weeks ago, Hogan declined to answer a reporter's question about whether he would codify the nation's abortion rights into federal law, saying, “It's not a yes or no.”
The issue comes from Akela Stroud, who considers herself a leftist but admires the way Hogan governs and said she has benefited from his program to help first-time homebuyers with student debt. (42 years old).Hogan strongly supports or does not codify the hard right Roe vs. Wade Will definitely make her withdraw all support for him.
“Once you start taking away people's rights and things that have been in place for over 70 years, that's concerning to me as a woman, and it's concerning to me as a minority,” Stroud said. said. “Because I believe that once they start taking things away from women, the next thing they do is take away the rights of a minority.”
Mr. Tron and Mr. Alsobrooks each lead Mr. Hogan among voters in the Washington, D.C., area they represent and trail him in other parts of the state.
Among registered Democratic voters in the D.C. suburbs, Alsobrooks and Tron each have 34% approval and 32% undecided. They have achieved the best results among their respective geographical locations. In Prince George's, Alsobrooks leads Tron 53% to 19%, and in Montgomery County, Tron leads Alsobrooks 49% to 16%.
Statewide, Tron has strong support among white voters, while Alsobrooks leads among black voters, 47% to 17% and 38% to 23%.
Allbrooks has the support of some of the biggest names in Maryland politics and is viewed favorably by registered voters in the county by a 3-1 margin, including Prince George's Ariel Burns, 30. ing.
Burns said he likes the accountability Allbrooks has taken regarding the school situation, even though the issue predates the county executive's tenure. And Burns, who works in finance, said Alsobrooks seems more relatable and empathetic as a mother and a civilian than some of the high-profile men in the race.
“I don't think there's anything wrong with being successful, but there's something to be said for someone who's not too far removed from life in Maryland,” Burns said. “I'm not on Larry Hogan's taxes. I'm not on Tron's taxes.”
Tron also benefits from significant support in his home county, including Montgomery resident Alejandra Ona, 50, who views him favorably by a more than 2-to-1 margin. There is. She's voting for Tron because the Democratic Party stands for the things she cares about, she said. I don't want to see Republicans in power.
“We don't have any information about Angela Alsobrooks,” said Ona, the accountant. She said, “I guess she doesn't have a lot of money. You don't see her ads or anything like that.”
Ona said the primary is the first time he has voted for Tron, adding that the primary is “more important than the general election in November to ensure we continue to elect Democrats.”
Sonia Vargas contributed to this report.
