Department for Work and Pensions. State Pension Age Review: Final Report. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/state-pension-age-review-final-report (2017).
Black, C. Working for a Healthier Tomorrow: Dame Carol Black’s Review of the Health Of Britain’s Working Age Population (The Stationery Office, 2008).
Waddell, G. & Kim Burton, A. Is Work Good for Your Health and Well-being? (Springer, 2006).
Loisel, P. & Anema, J. R. Handbook of Work Disability (Springer, 2013).
Google Scholar
OECD. Pensions at a Glance 2023. 236. https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/finance-and-investment/pensions-at-a-glance-2023_678055dd-en (2023).
Mein, G. et al. Predictors of early retirement in British civil servants. Age Ageing 29, 529–536 (2000).
Google Scholar
Muszyńska, M. M. & Rau, R. The old-age healthy dependency ratio in Europe. J. Popul. Ageing 5, 151–162 (2012).
Google Scholar
Haan, P. & Myck, M. Dynamics of health and labor market risks. J. Health Econ. 28, 1116–1125 (2009).
Google Scholar
Cridland, J. Independent Review of the State Pension Age: Interim Report. https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/559943/independent-review-of-the-state-pension-age-interim-report.pdf (2016).
Jagger, C. Trends in Life Expectancy and Healthy Life Expectancy Vol. 1, 29 (Springer, 2015).
Parker, M., Bucknall, M., Jagger, C. & Wilkie, R. Population-based estimates of healthy working life expectancy in England at age 50 years: Analysis of data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing. Lancet Public Health 5, e395–e403 (2020).
Google Scholar
Murray, E. T. et al. Inequalities in time from stopping paid work to death: Findings from the ONS Longitudinal Study, 2001–2011. J. Epidemiol. Community Health 73, 1101–1107 (2019).
Google Scholar
Welsh, C. E., Matthews, F. E. & Jagger, C. Trends in life expectancy and healthy life years at birth and age 65 in the UK, 2008–2016, and other countries of the EU28: An observational cross-sectional study. Lancet Reg. Health Europe 2, 100023 (2021).
Google Scholar
DWP. State Pension age review. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/state-pension-age-review-final-report (2017).
ONS. Health state life expectancy, all ages, UK. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthandlifeexpectancies/datasets/healthstatelifeexpectancyallagesuk (2022).
ONS. National life tables: UK. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/lifeexpectancies/datasets/nationallifetablesunitedkingdomreferencetables (2021).
ONS. Health state life expectancies by national deprivation deciles, England: 2018 to 2020. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthinequalities/bulletins/healthstatelifeexpectanciesbyindexofmultipledeprivationimd/2018to2020 (2022).
Lièvre, A. et al. Healthy working life expectancies at age 50 in Europe: A new indicator. J. Nutr. Health Aging 11, 508–514 (2007).
Google Scholar
Murray, C. J. & Lopez, A. D. Progress and directions in refining the global burden of disease approach: A response to Williams. Health Econ. 9, 69–82 (2000).
Google Scholar
Mobasheri, A. & Batt, M. An update on the pathophysiology of osteoarthritis. Ann. Phys. Rehabil. Med. 59, 333–339 (2016).
Google Scholar
Suri, P., Morgenroth, D. C. & Hunter, D. J. Epidemiology of osteoarthritis and associated comorbidities. PM R 4, S10–S19 (2012).
Google Scholar
Heerkens, Y., Engels, J., Kuiper, C., Van der Gulden, J. & Oostendorp, R. The use of the ICF to describe work related factors influencing the health of employees. Disabil. Rehabil. 26, 1060–1066 (2004).
Google Scholar
Karasek, R. & Theorell, T. Healthy Work: Stress, Productivity, and the Reconstruction of Working Life (Basic Books, 1990).
Karasek, R. A. Job demands, job decision latitude, and mental strain: Implications for job redesign. Adm. Sci. Q. 24, 285–308 (1979).
Google Scholar
Lynch, M., Bucknall, M., Jagger, C. & Wilkie, R. Healthy working life expectancy at age 50 for people with and without osteoarthritis in local and national English populations. Sci. Rep. 12, 2408 (2022).
Google Scholar
Goettler, A., Grosse, A. & Sonntag, D. Productivity loss due to overweight and obesity: A systematic review of indirect costs. BMJ Open 7, e014632 (2017).
Google Scholar
WHO. Global Recommendations on Physical Activity for Health. https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/9789241599979 (2010).
ONS. Sickness absence in the UK labour market: 2021. https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/labourproductivity/articles/sicknessabsenceinthelabourmarket/2021 (2022).
ONS. Sickness absence in the UK labour market: 2018. https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/labourproductivity/articles/sicknessabsenceinthelabourmarket/2018 (2019).
IHME. Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019) results. Global Burden of Disease Collaborative Network ghdx.healthdata.org/gbd-results-tool (2020).
Hay, S. I. et al. Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 333 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2016: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. Lancet 390, 1260–1344 (2017).
Google Scholar
Swain, S. et al. Trends in incidence and prevalence of osteoarthritis in the United Kingdom: Findings from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD). Osteoarthr. Cartil. 28, 792–801 (2020).
Google Scholar
Yu, D., Peat, G., Bedson, J. & Jordan, K. P. Annual consultation incidence of osteoarthritis estimated from population-based health care data in England. Rheumatology 54, 2051–2060 (2015).
Google Scholar
Jordan, K. P. et al. Annual consultation prevalence of regional musculoskeletal problems in primary care: An observational study. BMC Musculoskelet. Disord. 11, 144 (2010).
Google Scholar
Wilkie, R., Hay, E. M., Croft, P. & Pransky, G. Exploring how pain leads to productivity loss in primary care consulters for osteoarthritis: A prospective cohort study. PLoS One 10, e0120042 (2015).
Google Scholar
Baidwan, N. K. et al. A longitudinal study of work-related psychosocial factors and injuries: Implications for the aging United States workforce. Am. J. Ind. Med. 62, 212–221 (2019).
Google Scholar
Carr, E. et al. Working conditions as predictors of retirement intentions and exit from paid employment: A 10-year follow-up of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing. Eur. J. Ageing 13, 39–48 (2016).
Google Scholar
Häusser, J. A., Mojzisch, A., Niesel, M. & Schulz-Hardt, S. T. years on: A review of recent research on the Job Demand-Control (-Support) model and psychological well-being. Work Stress 24, 1–35 (2010).
Google Scholar
Banks. et al. English Longitudinal Study of Ageing: Waves 0-9, 1998-2019. [data collection]. 10.5255/UKDA-SN-5050-24 (2021).
Scholes, S., Taylor, R., Cheshire, H., Cox, K. & Lessof, C. Technical report (ELSA wave 2): Retirement, health and relationships of the older population in England (2008).
Bridges, S., Hussey, D. & Blake, M. The Dynamics of Ageing: The 2012 English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (Wave 6) Technical Report (2015).
Equality Act. c. 15. London: The Stationary Office 4. http://documents.canadalife.co.uk/well-in-work-equality-act-2010-employer-guide.pdf (2010).
Wilkie, R., Phillipson, C., Hay, E. M. & Pransky, G. Anticipated significant work limitation in primary care consulters with osteoarthritis: A prospective cohort study. BMJ Open 4, e005221 (2014).
Google Scholar
Loeser, R. F., Goldring, S. R., Scanzello, C. R. & Goldring, M. B. Osteoarthritis: A disease of the joint as an organ. Arthrit. Rheumat. 64, 1697–1707 (2012).
Google Scholar
Smith, D., Wilkie, R., Croft, P. & McBeth, J. Pain and mortality in older adults: the influence of pain phenotype. Arthrit. Care Res. 70, 236–243 (2018).
Google Scholar
Kozlov, E., Dong, X., Kelley, A. S. & Ankuda, C. K. The epidemiology of depressive symptoms in the last year of life. J. Am. Geriatr. Soc. 68, 321–328 (2020).
Google Scholar
Moon, J. R. et al. The Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale is an adequate screening instrument for depression and anxiety disorder in adults with congential heart disease. Health Qual. Life Outcomes 15, 176 (2017).
Google Scholar
White, J. et al. Duration of depressive symptoms and mortality risk: The English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA). Br. J. Psychiatry 208, 337–342 (2016).
Google Scholar
NCCMH. Common Mental Health Disorders. In Common Mental Health Disorders: Identification and Pathways to Care (The British Psychological Society and The Royal College of Psychiatrists, 2011).
NICE. Obesity: identification, assessment and management. Clinical guideline [CG189]. https://www.nice.org.uk/guidance/cg189/chapter/1-recommendations (2014).
Poole, L. & Jackowska, M. The epidemiology of depressive symptoms and poor sleep: Findings from the english longitudinal study of ageing (ELSA). Int. J. Behav. Med. 25, 151–161 (2018).
Google Scholar
González, K., Fuentes, J. & Márquez, J. L. Physical inactivity, sedentary behavior and chronic diseases. Korean J. Fam. Med. 38, 111–115 (2017).
Google Scholar
Jackson, C. H. Multi-state models for panel data: The msm package for {R}. J. Stat. Softw. Articl. 38, 1–29 (2011).
van den Hout, A. & Chan, M. S. elect: Estimation of Life Expectancies Using Multi-State Models. https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=elect (2019).
De Silva, A. P., Moreno-Betancur, M., De Livera, A. M., Lee, K. J. & Simpson, J. A. Multiple imputation methods for handling missing values in a longitudinal categorical variable with restrictions on transitions over time: A simulation study. BMC Med. Res. Methodol. 19, 14 (2019).
Google Scholar
Morris, T. P., White, I. R. & Royston, P. Tuning multiple imputation by predictive mean matching and local residual draws. BMC Med. Res. Methodol. 14, 75 (2014).
Google Scholar
White, I. R., Royston, P. & Wood, A. M. Multiple imputation using chained equations: Issues and guidance for practice. Stat. Med. 30, 377–399 (2011).
Google Scholar
Graham, J. W., Olchowski, A. E. & Gilreath, T. D. How many imputations are really needed? Some practical clarifications of multiple imputation theory. Prev. Sci. 2007, 11 (2007).
van Buuren, S. & Groothuis-Oudshoorn, K. {mice}: Multivariate imputation by chained equations in R. J. Stat. Softw. 45, 1–67 (2011).
Google Scholar
Rubin, D. B. Multiple Imputation for Nonresponse in Surveys (Wiley, 1987).
Google Scholar
von Elm, E. et al. The strengthening the reporting of observational studies in epidemiology (STROBE) statement: Guidelines for reporting observational studies. Lancet 370, 1453–1457 (2007).
Google Scholar
Cuthbertson, C. C. et al. Associations of leisure-time physical activity and television viewing with life expectancy free of nonfatal cardiovascular disease: The ARIC study. J. Am. Heart Assoc. 8, e012657 (2019).
Google Scholar
Laaksonen, M. et al. Gender differences in sickness absence–the contribution of occupation and workplace. Scand. J. Work Environ. Health 36, 394–403 (2010).
Google Scholar
Ogden, C. L., Yanovski, S. Z., Carroll, M. D. & Flegal, K. M. The epidemiology of obesity. Gastroenterology 132, 2087–2102 (2007).
Google Scholar
Do, K., Brown, R. E., Wharton, S., Ardern, C. I. & Kuk, J. L. Association between cardiorespiratory fitness and metabolic risk factors in a population with mild to severe obesity. BMC Obes. 5, 5 (2018).
Google Scholar
van Rijn, R. M., Robroek, S. J. W., Brouwer, S. & Burdorf, A. Influence of poor health on exit from paid employment: A systematic review. Occup. Environ. Med. 71, 295–301 (2014).
Google Scholar
Sadosky, A. B., DiBonaventura, M., Cappelleri, J. C., Ebata, N. & Fujii, K. The association between lower back pain and health status, work productivity, and health care resource use in Japan. J. Pain Res. 8, 119–130 (2015).
Google Scholar
McDonald, M., DiBonaventura, M. D. & Ullman, S. Musculoskeletal pain in the workforce: The effects of back, arthritis, and fibromyalgia pain on quality of life and work productivity. J. Occup. Environ. Med. 53, 765–770 (2011).
Google Scholar
Vassend, O., Quale, A. J., Røise, O. & Schanke, A.-K. Predicting the long-term impact of acquired severe injuries on functional health status: The role of optimism, emotional distress and pain. Spinal Cord 49, 1193–1197 (2011).
Google Scholar
Langley, P. et al. The societal impact of pain in the European Union: Health-related quality of life and healthcare resource utilization. J. Med. Econ. 13, 571–581 (2010).
Google Scholar
Wilkie, R., Phillipson, C., Hay, E. & Pransky, G. Frequency and predictors of premature work loss in primary care consulters for osteoarthritis: Prospective cohort study. Rheumatology 53, 459–464 (2014).
Google Scholar
ONS. Life Expectancy Estimates, All Ages, UK (Springer, 2021).
Yong, V. & Saito, Y. Are there education differentials in disability and mortality transitions and active life expectancy among japanese older adults? Findings from a 10-year prospective cohort study. J. Gerontol. Ser. Psychol. Sci. Soc. Sci. 67, 343–353 (2012).
Guillot, M. & Yu, Y. Estimating health expectancies from two cross-sectional surveys: The intercensal method. Demogr. Res. 21, 503–534 (2009).
Google Scholar
Marshall, D. A. et al. Existing comorbidities in people with osteoarthritis: A retrospective analysis of a population-based cohort in Alberta, Canada. BMJ Open 9, e033334 (2019).
Google Scholar
Kadam, U. T., Jordan, K. & Croft, P. R. Clinical comorbidity in patients with osteoarthritis: A case-control study of general practice consulters in England and Wales. Ann. Rheum. Dis. 63, 408–414 (2004).
Google Scholar
Mastbergen, S. C. & Lafeber, F. P. J. G. Changes in subchondral bone early in the development of osteoarthritis. Arthr. Rheumat. 63, 2561–2563 (2011).
Google Scholar
Baek, J. H., Kim, Y. S. & Yi, K. H. Relationship between comorbid health problems and musculoskeletal disorders resulting in musculoskeletal complaints and musculoskeletal sickness absence among employees in Korea. Saf. Health Work 6, 128–133 (2015).
Google Scholar
Roh, L. et al. Mortality risk associated with underweight: A census-linked cohort of 31,578 individuals with up to 32 years of follow-up. BMC Public Health 14, 371 (2014).
Google Scholar
Baker, C. Obesity Statistics. https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN03336/SN03336.pdf (2022).
Yuen, H. K. et al. Self-reported versus objectively assessed exercise adherence. Am. J. Occup. Ther. 67, 484–489 (2013).
Google Scholar
Ng, T. W. H., Sorensen, K. L. & Eby, L. T. Locus of control at work: A meta-analysis. J. Organ. Behav. 27, 1057–1087 (2006).
Google Scholar
Berglund, E., Lytsy, P. & Westerling, R. The influence of locus of control on self-rated health in context of chronic disease: A structural equation modeling approach in a cross sectional study. BMC Public Health 14, 492 (2014).
Google Scholar
Schurer, S. Bouncing back from health shocks: Locus of control and labor supply. J. Econ. Behav. Organ. 133, 1–20 (2017).
Google Scholar
Cobb-Clark, D. A. Locus of control and the labor market. IZA J. Labor Econ. 4, 3 (2015).
Google Scholar
Borkhoff, C. M. et al. Reaching those most in need: A scoping review of interventions to improve health care quality for disadvantaged populations with osteoarthritis. Arthritis Care Res. 63, 39–52 (2011).
Google Scholar
Nuñez, M. et al. The effect of an educational program to improve health-related quality of life in patients with osteoarthritis on waiting list for total knee replacement: A randomized study. Osteoarthr. Cartil. 14, 279–285 (2006).
Google Scholar
OECD. Getting Skills Right: Future-Ready Adult Learning Systems. 132 (OECD Publishing, 2019).
Nieuwenhuijsen, K., Verbeek, J. H. A. M., de Boer, A. G. E. M., Blonk, R. W. B. & van Dijk, F. J. H. Supervisory behaviour as a predictor of return to work in employees absent from work due to mental health problems. Occup. Environ. Med. 61, 817–823 (2004).
Google Scholar
