- Recent changes in China's foreign ministry and its tone have increased speculation that wolf warrior diplomacy may disappear.
- But experts told BI that Beijing's aggressive approach is unlikely to work.
- It is a mistake to think that China is deliberately emphasizing aggression as its default strategy, they said.
Speaking in New York, veteran diplomat Liu Jianchao seemed to signal a change in direction in how China plans to deal with the world.
“I really don't believe there was always such a thing as 'wolf warrior' diplomacy,” Liu, head of the Communist Party of China's international bureau, said at a meeting with the Council on Foreign Relations on January 9. About getting back to that diplomacy. ”
His words raised questions in the West. China is known for its arrogant and often hostile diplomacy, colloquially known as its “wolf warrior” style.
But China also made major personnel changes at its foreign ministry last year, expelling at least two Wolf Warrior diplomats. As the economy struggles to recover post-COVID-19, has the Chinese government stopped its aggressive ways?
Even if China adopts a friendlier attitude, it is unlikely, four experts on Chinese foreign relations told Business Insider.
They said it was a misconception, and often a Western misconception, that the Chinese government had outlined a specific strategy to bicker and disparage its opponents in the public arena.
“China's sometimes aggressive style of diplomacy is a tool rather than an ideology, belief or doctrine,” said Ian Jia Chong, who teaches Chinese foreign policy at the National University of Singapore.
Although the Chinese government deploys wolf-warrior diplomacy whenever it feels necessary, sometimes to intimidate smaller countries, Chung said Beijing often says its actions are righteous anger rather than bullying tactics.
Named after the 2017 nationalistic Chinese film Wolf Warrior 2, the term has come to encompass a series of insults and wild claims made by Chinese diplomats to protect Beijing's interests. became. In a notorious example from 2020, Chinese spokesperson Zhao Lijian tweeted a photo showing a soldier attempting to slit the throat of a child with an Australian flag in the background.
“I am shocked by the killings of Afghan civilians and prisoners of war by Australian soldiers,” Chao wrote. The manipulated image shocked Australian leaders, who called the post a “false image and gross defamation”.
It's more about home ground.
However, the specific actions and level of aggression of Wolf Warrior diplomats are unlikely to be determined by direct orders from their superiors.
Rather, it stems from an expectation that diplomats fiercely protect China's image, said Stanley Rosen, a professor of political science and international relations at the University of Southern California's U.S.-China Institute.
“Any Chinese diplomat who wants to be promoted cannot take a soft line,” Rosen said. “They always have to protect China. So if they appear too sympathetic to foreigners, they'll get into a lot of trouble and won't be promoted.”
On the other hand, diplomats who become too aggressive may be asked to tone down, but they are rarely fired or face serious consequences, Rosen added.
Rosen said domestic awareness is key to China's diplomatic approach.
“First of all, China is most concerned about its own domestic population, and they are dealing with their own people first,” he said.
China's chauvinistic nationalists are very active on social media, sometimes even calling for a declaration of war on the Chinese government over diplomatic slights. Zhao was one of its most popular figures.
He promoted conspiracy theories that the coronavirus originated in Maryland and Russian disinformation about a U.S. bioweapons lab in Ukraine. When government representatives began boycotting the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics, Zhao was dismissive, saying, “No one cares.”
In return, he has a strong and loyal following on Chinese social media, with 8.6 million followers on Weibo, China's version of X.
Rosen argues that Beijing's secondary target audience is the Chinese diaspora, particularly Chinese students studying abroad, and then Beijing's potential and current partners in the Global South (Africa, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East). (including).
And while China's priorities influence opinions in the West, they are a lower priority for Westerners, Rosen said.
“The reason they care is because they want technology, they want investment, they want to trade, they want to sell goods,” he says.
The cost of clicking your tongue or hitting your head
While it's true that China is showing signs of scaling back its rhetoric, experts say it's more of a readjustment than a review.
Pan Chenxing, a professor of international relations at Australia's Deakin University, said the Chinese government began using the wolf warrior style in light of a more hostile global environment, including former President Donald Trump's policy of loud confrontation with China. said.
“It takes two people to tango in international relations,” Pan said.
Dylan Lo, who teaches Chinese foreign policy and international relations at Singapore's Nanyang Technological University, said the plethora of other challenges for the West, such as wars in Gaza and Ukraine, means that conflict with China is He said this means that it has been put on the back burner.
Meanwhile, Chinese leader Xi Jinping is likely to refocus his efforts on rescuing the country's struggling economy and solving domestic problems, he said.
“Both China and the United States know that it is impossible to get along happily all the time, but the focus will shift to managing conflict and mistrust,” he said.
China also recognizes that the shock value of wolf warrior diplomacy comes with diminishing returns. Countries will simply become accustomed to the invasion.
“I think the limits of wolf warrior diplomacy are clear,” Lowe said. “There's no country, not even China or the United States, where you can't completely bully and yell every time.”
“If the Chinese government wants the same effect, it will need to escalate,” said Chong of the National University of Singapore. “It brings further risks and the situation gets out of control.”
the wolf warrior returns
That said, Wolf Warrior diplomacy will return depending on the issue at hand, Lowe said.
“Actually, active diplomacy existed before the term was coined, but it's certainly been accelerated by Xi Jinping,” Lo said.
So why did Liu tell reporters and scholars in New York that wolf warrior diplomacy would never return?
As an example, Rosen said the term was coined by the West and is not used by the Chinese government.
And because the name now has so many negative connotations, China is likely to push even harder for the world to do away with the concept, he said.
But that's just the name China is trying to get rid of, not the act that created the wolf warrior reputation.
For the Chinese government, Rosen said, “When something that could be called a stink occurs, we try to change the wording.”
For example, China appears to have abandoned the name “Made in China 2025” for its advanced manufacturing sector development plan as Western countries grow increasingly wary of the country's high-tech industry. But even without its name, the Chinese government is still hard at work expanding its AI and technology capabilities.
“You may not be able to change your actions, but you can change your language,” Rosen said.
