global naval battle
Turkey's Yasar Güler poses for a photo with Somali Defense Minister Abdulkadir Mohamed Nour (left) at the signing ceremony of the Bilateral Defense and Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement in Ankara, Turkiye on February 8, 2024. Minister of Defense (right) (Photo) Turkish Ministry of Defense/Handout/Written by Anadolu, via Getty Images)
BEIRUT — A recently announced defense deal between Somalia and Turkey to strengthen the African country's naval power is as much about Mogadishu's sense of security as it is about projecting maritime power beyond its own shores. Regional experts say this is about the Turkish government's ambitions.
The two countries signed a defense and economic agreement earlier this month, and on February 22, Somalia said it had agreed with Turkey to train and equip the Somali navy. Few further details were shared, but Turkish defense officials told journalists that the country “will provide support in the field of maritime security, just as it did in the field of combating terrorism.” Told.
“We will assist Somalia in developing capacity and capacity to combat illegal and irregular activities within its territorial waters,” the official said, according to the report.
The announcement appears to be a direct response to an agreement between Ethiopia and Somaliland that would give Somalia's rival Ethiopia access to Somaliland's coastline. Somalia's president said this amounted to an attempt to annex parts of the country.
But analysts told Breaking Defense that the naval deal is about more than deterring Ethiopia. It is also about Turkey's long-standing ambitions to project its power into the Red Sea region and pave the way for large-scale defense agreements in the future.
“While this agreement is partly a response to recent alarming events, including Ethiopia's incursions into Somali territory via Somaliland, we also see it as the culmination of Turkey's extensive involvement in Somalia over more than a decade. “We should,” said Ali Baqir, a professor at Qatar University. – Resident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council's Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative, told Breaking Defense. “This engagement focused on state-building, security and humanitarian efforts at a time when Somalia was a forgotten country by the international community. Cooperation extended beyond the political, economic and military spheres.”
He stressed that the agreement aims to ensure mutual benefits and positions Ankara “as a key player in the strategic dynamics of the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa in the coming era.” This can also be seen as part of Ankara's hard power projection capabilities and forward defense policy that began in 2016. ”
Norman Ricklefs, head of geopolitical consulting firm NAMEA Group, described Turkey's naval expansion in the Red Sea as a “logical next step” and said that through the deal with Somalia, Ankara would “further strengthen its defense ties with Somalia.” , that will pay dividends,” he told Breaking Defense. while strengthening Turkey's military presence in the strategic Horn of Africa and the Red Sea, for Turkey's defense industry, and possibly other Turkish business interests. ”
He added that Turkey is “already a regional power, active in the southern and eastern Mediterranean, as well as in Central Asia, Syria and Iraq.” He has the second largest army in NATO and a very capable diplomatic force. Expanding the naval presence in the Red Sea is the logical next step. ”
Bakir said even envisioning a future naval base in Somalia is not out of the realm of possibility. Bakr stressed that the relationship between Somalia and Turkey is neither recent nor surprising since Turkey opened its first overseas military training facility in Somalia in 2017.
“Turkey has one of the most successful training and equipping programs in the world being implemented in Somalia. Compared to the programs of its Western peers, this program has become a success story. Hundreds of people “Professional and highly trained Somali soldiers graduate from this program every year,” he added. “Given the deep ties between Mogadishu and Ankara and the current regional developments related to both Red Sea countries, we cannot exclude the possibility of establishing a Turkish naval base in Somalia in the near future.”
Andreas Krieg, CEO of MENA Analytica, a London-based strategic risk consultancy with a focus on the broader Middle East, secures supply chains and develops strategies in the maritime sector. believes that Somalia is part of Turkey's broader strategy to create strategic depth. .
“Turkey developed the Blue Homeland Strategy, announced several years ago. Its vision is to develop a blue-water navy with range and strategic depth extending beyond the Mediterranean to the Red Sea and across the Eastern Mediterranean. “It was about re-establishing Turkey as a maritime power that extends far beyond its immediate shores, from the Horn of Africa to the Indian Ocean,” Krieg told Breaking Defense.
He added that such an agreement with Somalia would increase the chances of Mogadishu procuring Turkish naval platforms.
Turkey is one of the few Middle Eastern countries with a significant number of shipyards to build and equip warships locally.
