- The Supreme Court has agreed to hear President Trump's request for immunity over charges of election destruction.
- Legal experts say Mr. Trump stands to benefit from a SCOTUS hearing because it could delay the trial.
- But even with a conservative court, legal experts doubt Mr. Trump will prevail.
The Supreme Court announced Wednesday that it will reconsider former President Donald Trump's claim that he is immune from prosecution for conspiring to overturn the 2020 election results. The court said it would hear arguments as early as the end of April.
Trump faces four federal charges in cases related to his efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election. Special counsel Jack Smith's federal case against Trump cannot proceed until the Supreme Court rules, which could take months. Trump has denied his wrongdoing.
How can Trump win even if he loses?
Legal experts told Business Insider that while the court's timeline for hearing Trump's claims is faster than usual, SCOTUS involvement in the matter could further delay a potential trial. , which will likely buy Trump time until after the 2024 election.
“Even if Trump loses his immunity claim, he still basically wins because he managed to avoid a pre-election trial,” said Scott Lemieux, a political science professor and constitutional law expert at the University of Washington. told.
Former federal prosecutor Kenneth White told BI that the SCOTUS decision alone will take at least several months, perhaps until the end of June, and that it will be at least several more months before Trump goes to trial.Court decides former president isn't it You have legal immunity.
“There's no guarantee that the president will be successful in pushing events beyond the election, but it's certainly a big step in that direction,” White said.
Justin Crowe, a SCOTUS expert and Williams College political science professor, agreed with White in an email to BI, saying that the benefit to Trump was “entirely a matter of timing” and that the court ultimately decided that Trump He said that if his request for immunity is rejected, “we will be ready for trial.'' We weren't able to fully reopen until late June or early July. ”
“While it is difficult to say when the actual trial could begin, it is increasingly likely that the trial will not be completed in time for the election,” Crow wrote.
President Trump's primary legal approach in the four criminal cases he now faces has been to delay, delay, and keep delaying, said former New York federal prosecutor Sarah Krisoff. (He denies wrongdoing and has pleaded not guilty in the case.)
Many legal experts speculate that President Trump is trying to push the legal tangles beyond the election in hopes of having the federal charges dismissed or pardoning himself.
Referring to the election interference and classified documents cases, Krisoff said, “If Trump is elected, there is a strong possibility that the Jack Smith case will continue simply because Trump will control the Justice Department.'' I think it's low.”
Legal interpretation expert Doron Curria, a professor at Cleveland State University School of Law, agreed that this is a big victory for President Trump in terms of timing.
“He has succeeded in his most important mission, which is not to have a trial before the election,” Khalil said, adding that under this schedule, the chances of a trial being held by November are implausible. Low and expressed confidence.
He also said that while some may criticize the Supreme Court's timing, the attorney general and Smith stalled in actually indicting Trump more than two years after the Capitol riot. He also pointed out that some people might argue.
“It was a race against Jack Smith's time, and I think he lost,” Khalil said.
A spokeswoman for Mr. Smith's office did not respond to a request for comment. Mr. Smith's office tried to quickly resolve the presidential privilege issue last year. SCOTUS refused to hear the case in December 2023, sending the case to the Court of Appeals in Washington, D.C.
Will SCOTUS rule in favor of Trump?
Carolyn Shapiro, founder of the Chicago-Kent U.S. Supreme Court Institute, said the high court's decision to reconsider the case “suggests that at least some justices are taking his position seriously.” said the agreement was a victory for Trump. He told BI, adding that Trump's claims are “astonishing” because they are “very contrary to our constitutional order.”
But even if the 6-3 vote leans conservative, the court is unlikely to grant Trump carte blanche presidential immunity, several other legal experts said.
Mr. Khalil said the fact that SCOTUS has taken up the case does not suggest that SCOTUS is considering ruling in his favor. Rather, he said, it speaks to how “serious” the case is, noting that the court has never faced a case like this in its 234-year history.
“This is a series of constitutionally first issues of this kind that the court has never dealt with before,” he said, adding, “This is one of those important cases that the court doesn't want to miss an opportunity to speak about.” It is,” he added. . ”
Khalil said he's fairly confident the court won't grant President Trump immunity, largely because of how meaningless the legal arguments in favor of absolute immunity are.
Experts told BI that the nine justices, three of whom Trump himself appointed to the court, also have not consistently won legal victories on Trump's behalf.
“This is a conservative court, but it was not a conservative court that was definitely deferential to Trump,” White said. “They have largely rejected his efforts to use them to support his 2020 election challenge, and they have stayed away from his craziest things. I don't think he can count on it. But I'm never going to say never.” ”
Krysov added that the Supreme Court is likely to issue the narrowest possible ruling.
“They're not a group that tends to make broad, sweeping decisions,” she said. “If there's a narrow path in a case, they'll take it.”
