If the Kremlin killed Alexei Navalny, why now?
Allies of Russia's opposition leader claim President Vladimir Putin had a jailed dissident killed to prevent an impending prisoner swap that would free him and two Americans. It provided answers to the questions surrounding Putin's death.
Five people familiar with the matter told NBC News that an exchange was not believed to be imminent when Navalny's death was announced on February 16, but a deal to free him is in the works. He said that. Two of the sources said they were not authorized to speak publicly. The deal at issue was supposed to include reporter Evan Gershkovich and former Marine Paul Whelan.
Two U.S. officials said the U.S. government had not discussed the idea directly with the Russian government. Some said Putin may have learned the matter was being discussed by U.S. and German officials.
The news added to the intrigue as Navalny's funeral emerged as a new flashpoint, with his team announcing on Tuesday that they were unable to find a venue in Russia to hold the funeral.
Talks with Germany
In a video message released on Monday, Navalny's close ally announced that he would be released along with two unnamed Americans in exchange for Russian hitman Vadim Krasikov, who was sentenced to life in prison in Germany for his brazen crimes. That's why he claimed Putin had Kremlin critics killed in prison. The murder of a former Chechen militant.
“Alexei Navalny could be sitting in this seat today,” Maria Pevchikh said in a video about the alleged swap. “This is not a metaphor. This could and should have happened.”
She said she was told the night before Navalny's death that talks for his release were in the final stages. But Putin ultimately decided he did not want to proceed with the deal out of her personal “hatred” of politicians, she added.
Pevchik provided no evidence to support his account.
Western officials told NBC News that there had been no formal offer, but initial talks were underway, including an exchange of Navalny for an American citizen. Western diplomats also said that after two years of talks, Germany had agreed to a coordinated trade that would send Navalny in exchange for Krasikov, as well as Gershkovic and Wehlan.
The diplomat said the deal began to take shape before German Chancellor Olaf Scholz visited Washington on February 9, but was given a further boost during White House talks between the German chancellor and President Joe Biden. That's what it means.
“Mr. Navalny was seen as a likely candidate, but no one expected him to do so,” said a Western diplomat. “The timing was unclear.”
A person familiar with the talks told NBC News that there had been progress on a swap agreement involving Navalny and the United States, but that it was not yet fully finalized at the time of Navalny's death.
President Putin holds Krasikov in high esteem and has been trying to win him back for years. The U.S. tried to trade WNBA star Brittney Griner to Germany for Whelan, but Germany refused, officials said. In the end, the Biden administration replaced Greiner with Russian arms dealer Viktor Bout, who was imprisoned in the United States.
But Mr. Whelan was left behind after the Russians pushed for tough negotiations, insisting only two people could take part in the exchange, sources said.
The difference this time around, the person said, is that Navalny has ties to Germany and was receiving medical treatment in Germany after a 2020 poisoning attempt that he blamed on the Kremlin, and that he had a relationship with Navalny. He said the trade could be justified by the German people.
The German government has declined to comment on the talks, and Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Tuesday he was not aware of any exchange deal.
Earlier this month, Putin alluded to Krasikov in an interview with former Fox News host Tucker Carlson when asked about the possibility of Gershkovych's release. President Putin called Krasikov a “patriot” without mentioning his name.
But some observers have questioned Navalny's team's explanation that Putin blocked a deal to release him. Sergei Radchenko, a historian and professor at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, wonders why the Russian leader would do something like this involving Navalny only to “kill him at the last minute to avoid this exchange.” It is unclear whether he agreed to such an exchange.
Funerals and flashpoints?
In the days since Navalny's death in a remote penal colony north of the Arctic Circle, his family and supporters have been denied access to his body. Her mother Lyudmila said she was threatened that no body would be returned unless she agreed to a secret funeral.
Navalny's body is I'm finally back His spokeswoman, Kira Yarmis, signaled that the focus would now be on his funeral, saying they were looking for a venue for a “public farewell” by the end of this week.
But on Tuesday, Yarmysh said he was having trouble finding a venue, saying some sites were fully booked or turned down Navalny as soon as his name was mentioned. “In some places we have been told that funeral directors are prohibited from cooperating with us,” Yarmis wrote to Mr. X, begging for suggestions on where to hold the funeral.
It is unclear what the opposition leader's funeral will look like as Russian authorities step up a crackdown on dissent not seen since Soviet times.
It is also unclear whether Mr Navalny's widow, Yulia Navalnaya, will be able to return to Russia for the funeral after directly accusing Putin of killing him and vowing to continue his work.
In the days after Navalny's death, hundreds of people were detained just for laying flowers in his honor at monuments across Russia. The editor of a Moscow weekly newspaper that published a double-page article about Navalny's death with a smiling photo on the cover told Reuters that almost the whole issue had been confiscated.
Thousands of people may be preparing to bid Navalny a final farewell, threatening mass protests that Russian authorities have been trying to quell.
With a presidential election in which Putin is certain to win, even a peaceful procession by a few thousand people could have negative consequences for the Kremlin.
Navalny's close allies on Tuesday encouraged Russians to heed the late activist's call to show up at polling stations at noon on March 17 to protest the election. The important thing is to get out there and see each other. Then they will fulfill Mr. Navalny's last wish,” Leonid Volkov said.
