Predicting what health care will look like even three to five years from now can be challenging. But what about 2035? Leaders at Oliver Wyman's healthcare consultancy are busy studying this question and reimagining what the field will look like about 10 years from now.
In the Executive Summary of the Designing for 2035 report, the team assesses current trends, evaluates the undercurrents of socio-economic changes that influence those trends, and identifies where there is potential for significant change within that time period. I am.
America's aging population, workforce shifts, consumerism, and technological innovation are among the forces reshaping the entire economy and health care, according to a recent analysis of the report's findings. There is.
Three key changes to take towards 2035
1 | America's aging population will require more care
The elderly population is growing explosively. From 2010 to 2020, the country saw the largest increase in people 65 and older since the 1880s, according to U.S. Census data. About one in six Americans is now a senior, up from one in eight in 2010. This demographic shift will have the greatest impact on government-funded programs. While Medicare and Medicaid serve an increasing number of people, slow growth in funding is forcing federal and state governments to find lower-cost ways to provide health care.
Consequences of hospitals and health systems
By 2035, everyone could be a caregiver in some way. In 10 years, approximately 1 in 4 Americans (26%) will be elderly, increasing the demand for medical services. Almost 95% of older adults have one chronic disease and 80% have two or more chronic diseases. Because Medicare bed occupancy is more than four times higher than commercial bed occupancy, the report's authors expect overall bed-days to increase, further straining government budgets. “Everyone will begin to act as a caregiver, and many will be caught between parent and child,” the report explains. New tools and incentive models to reward formal and informal caregivers will be created to address the expansion of the clinical workforce needed to serve the rapidly growing elderly population, the report predicts. are doing. Alternative medical facilities will emerge, allowing seniors to avoid costly and unnecessary hospitalizations.
2 | Disparities in staffing will widen
The US workforce is shrinking. The ratio of the working population to the elderly population has decreased from 4:1 in 2015 to 3:1 today. Healthcare is no exception, with primary care providers, specialists, and nurses in short supply. This shortage is further exacerbated by burnout and the aging of the healthcare workforce, with 40% of practicing physicians over the age of 55. As the worker-to-elderly ratio approaches 2:1 over the next decade, the shortage, especially among doctors, will worsen. The projected demand gap is expected to be 10.6% for physicians, 7.5% for specialists, and 5.9% for nurses.
Consequences of hospitals and health systems
Overall, the workforce will have more influence and less long-term ties to employers, forcing employers to improve benefits and employment packages, the report said. Employers need to create more flexible work arrangements and career development opportunities to attract new talent.
3 | Meeting consumer expectations is paramount
Quality, convenience, and reliability all influence the brands consumers value. Medical care is no exception. For patients, convenience is a top issue when choosing a primary care physician. Additionally, consumers are increasingly seeking health information from sources outside of mainstream medicine, such as news sources, social media, and search engines. Consumers are also demanding more from the brands they trust on broader social issues, increasing the importance of environmental, social and governance platforms.
Consequences of hospitals and health systems
With an increasing number of voices and thought leaders influencing healthcare consumers, healthcare providers need to be even more visible in this message. In an Oliver Wyman video, Dr. Austin Chan, chief medical social media officer at Jefferson Health, discussed the importance of healthcare organizations immersing themselves in social media to combat misinformation. . Provider organizations must also demonstrate impact on climate change and social justice initiatives.
The introduction of advanced analytics and AI, more data, and better connectivity will give consumers and clinicians a deeper understanding of personalized next-best actions, when they need them and when they want them. method will be available.
