Online sales have been sluggish in recent years. Germany's total merchandise sales in 2023 will fall by 11.8% to 79.7 billion euros from 90.4 billion euros in the previous year, according to the latest estimates from the German Federal Electronic Commerce and Mail Order Association (BEVH).
The share of e-commerce in total retail sales in a narrow sense (including groceries but excluding sales at pharmacies) fell from 11.8% to 10.2%.
For the first time since 2020, industry sales fell below 100 billion euros. Taking into account sales via telephone, fax and other ordering channels, total sales in 2023 amount to 93.6 billion euros.
“We expect the German e-commerce market to bottom out this year. Q4 2023 was down 7.1%, the first quarter with a single-digit decline since early summer 2022, and we expect future sales to decline by 7.1%. E-commerce was strong last year in categories such as clothing and entertainment, with German consumers particularly saving. However, it remains popular with all age groups and consistently has excellent customer reviews. and we maintain our pioneering role,” commented Gero Furchheim, Chairman of bevh and Spokesman of the Management Board of Cairo AG.
Overall sales decreased significantly
For the D2C sales model, sales decreased by 11.1% year-on-year. Marketplaces and online sellers decreased by 8.5% and 14.7%, respectively. The most significant sales decline was in multichannel sales, which decreased by 18.1%. However, this is because customers are increasingly using stationary sales outlets again.
Low-cost overseas suppliers may benefit
The economic crisis has also brought about changes in consumer behavior. Increasingly, German customers are willing to buy second-hand goods (so-called “second-hand goods'') that are cheaper but still well-maintained. Among respondents between the ages of 19 and 29, 18.4% said they “often” buy used products online, and 31.9% said they “sometimes” buy used products online. Among those aged 30 to 39, 11.7% and 40.1% said so, respectively.
Additionally, there is a significant trend among consumers to buy from overseas stores if the price is lower, with 22.1% of respondents “totally” agreeing with this statement. This is much higher than the 2022 comparative survey (16.8% at that time). In total, 61% of customers say they would prefer or completely prefer buying from a foreign supplier if it was cheaper.
In fact, Chinese suppliers are becoming particularly popular in Germany. For example, Temu is currently the absolute leader among free applications.
However, Richard C. Geibel, managing director of the Cologne Institute for Electronic Commerce, said in an interview with SWR that he is concerned that Chinese suppliers such as the aforementioned Tem and Shein could flood the market with cheaper products. expressed.
A glimmer of optimism on the horizon
A joint forecast by bevh and EHI Retail Institute assumes that the outlook for the e-commerce market will improve during 2024. The increase in nominal sales over the year is estimated to reach he 2%.
Bev emphasizes that for many entrepreneurs, the coming months will not only be about survival, but also about laying the foundations for new growth.
“Companies that streamline processes, optimize costs and focus more on customer needs now have the chance to emerge stronger from the crisis and grow faster than the general trend in trade.”EHI says Lars Hofacker, head of e-commerce research at . Retail Institute.
