Russia marks two years of war in Ukraine, gains gains and shows confidence

When Russia invaded Ukraine two years ago, the outnumbered and outgunned Ukrainian army defeated the invading force due to staunch resistance by Russia's military, overwhelming Western support for Kiev, and clear military overreach by the Russian government. There were high hopes that the attack could be repelled.

Two years on, hopes for a Ukrainian victory are fading and looking increasingly hollow. So too is the Western nation's pledge to support Ukraine “for as long as necessary.”

As it stands, billions of dollars worth of U.S. military aid remains unapproved, and further challenges are expected as war and financial fatigue builds in the run-up to the U.S. presidential election. The vote could result in a government less sympathetic to the war in Ukraine. needs.

Meanwhile, on the battlefield in Ukraine, the front has been largely static for months, apart from recent gains by Russian forces in the country's east.

Kiev continues to insist it is not being given the proper means to fight Russia effectively, with reports of low morale among front-line troops facing ammunition and manpower shortages. Domestic political tensions and the replacement of popular military commander General Valery Zarzhini have also fueled concerns about future military strategy.

“This year has been the most difficult year for Ukraine so far in the war. One of the reasons for this is the unrest over Zaruzhny's removal and the withdrawal from Avdiivka, but the biggest reason is the support from Western countries. “This is due to extreme uncertainty over the level and magnitude of aid,” James Nixey, director of the Russia and Eurasia program at think tank Chatham House, said on Monday.

“I think that for Ukraine, there's actually a very small difference between a president who can't provide lethal aid and a president who won't provide lethal aid. And for Ukrainians, it's effectively the same thing. And it's an existential question: Putin isn't really putting everything he can into it. [Republican presidential hopeful Donald] “President Trump believes he can win no matter the outcome of the US presidential election in November,” Nixey said.

“In other words, President Putin feels weak, as he has many times in the past, and he is absolutely right. It remains to be seen whether his confidence is justified, but at least more or less He knows what he has at his disposal in this matter.''In the summer, or this time next year, or even beyond, Ukraine cannot say the same. ”

While Western countries are likely to be dominated by domestic political infighting this year ahead of elections to the U.S., U.K. and EU parliaments, “Russia does not face these constraints,” Nixie said. “We are prepared to cause great damage to Russia,” he said. That in itself is the pursuit of victory. ”

As the war enters its third year, Russia certainly looks energized, and recent advances have boosted its confidence – last week's capture of Avdiivka was its most significant victory in nine months, and this week there are more. Small-scale territorial gains continued — and the elimination of domestic political opponents ahead of next month's presidential election.

It goes without saying that Russian President Vladimir Putin is in trouble, especially since most of his critics are in self-imposed exile, banned from political participation, imprisoned or dead, most recently Alexei Navalny, who died in a polar prison in the Arctic. Considering that, it is expected to easily win the vote. Colony last week.

The fate of war is unpredictable, but political analysts say Russia, like Western countries, holds many cards in its hands regarding what will happen in war.

Kurt Volker, a former U.S. ambassador to NATO and special envoy to Ukraine, told CNBC that in his conversations with Ukrainian regional officials and military commanders, he noticed “a great deal of concern, especially about the West and the United States.” said. .

“Will we provide Ukraine with the level of military and economic support that we have given and will continue to need? Because without that, Russia would have more resources. , because they're worried that they're going to keep squeezing the front lines, keep buying “launching drones and missiles, launching them into Ukrainian cities, that this war will continue as it is, and that they won't necessarily incur heavy losses.'' “As things stand, they cannot take back the territory,” he said on Thursday.

In the early months of the Ukraine war in the spring of 2022, Russian military strategy and tactics were criticized and often ridiculed, especially when the Russian army, having failed to reach the capital Kiev, had to break a hasty withdrawal on the Northern Front. It was done.

Afterwards, the Russian military was widely seen as poorly equipped, poorly trained, and disorganized, but defense analysts say the Russian military has adapted and become more organized and coordinated. , noted that a ready military emerged last year.

No one laughs at Russia's military tactics these days. Russian forces are either occupying heavily fortified defensive positions that thwarted a Ukrainian counterattack last summer, or have launched offensive operations primarily in eastern Ukraine.

After months of heavy fighting, the army was encouraged by the capture of Avdiivka in Donetsk. President Putin called it an “absolute success”, adding: “We need to build on it.”

Analysts say the victory comes at a perfect time for Putin ahead of the March 15-17 elections, and the Institute for the Study of War says Russia has “infiltrated Ukraine's information space. The aim was to cause panic and weaken Ukraine's morale. It was pointed out in this week's analysis.

A Ukrainian estimate that as many as 47,000 Russian troops may have died in the long-running battle for Avdiivka has not been confirmed or denied by Russia. Although accurate and up-to-date figures are impossible to obtain, U.S. officials said last August that the total number of soldiers killed and wounded in the war was about 500,000 on both sides.

Analysts say what matters to Russia is how Avdiivka's victory will be perceived by Russians ahead of the election and what signal it will send to the West. In other words, Russia is engaged in a long war and intends to achieve its goals in Ukraine at all costs.

As it stands, Russia occupies almost a fifth of Ukraine's territory, indicating that it can mobilize hundreds of thousands of people to fight at will, and the need to mobilize more civilians into the fight This highlights another advantage Russia has over Ukraine, which is reluctant to do so.

“I think the war will continue as long as President Putin is in power,” Volker said. “He doesn't care how many Russians he kills, so he'll keep throwing wave after wave.” [of personnel] It killed tens of thousands of people on the front lines. And he doesn't care. So as long as President Putin is there, this war will continue.'' CNBC has reached out to the Kremlin for a response to the comments and is awaiting a response.

Ukraine's military is seeking to mobilize an additional 500,000 troops, but President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has taken a cautious approach, calling the issue “sensitive.” David Kirichenko, an analyst at the Center for European Policy Analysis, said mobilization was a “thorny issue between government and military” that could no longer be avoided.

“What is clear is that Ukraine has no choice but to mobilize more personnel. Our men and women have suffered severe fatigue and heavy losses after 23 months of intense fighting,” he said. pointed out.

“The controversy over mobilization comes at a time when most authorized U.S. military aid is close to exhaustion and Congress has yet to pass a new aid package.”

“Ukraine has had to suspend many military operations due to a lack of weapons, and the situation on the front looks grim. At least for now, the fighting has largely been a war of attrition, favoring Russia. There is no sign that the resistance will stop,'' Kirichenko said.

This sentiment is echoed by Ukraine's leadership, with President Zelenskiy repeatedly saying his country will fight to regain every inch of its territory, including Crimea, which was annexed in 2014.

Analysts say there is little chance of a political resolution to the war so far, and neither side on the battlefield feels like they have an advantage in peace negotiations.

Despite Ukraine fighting against odds this year and political uncertainty, Kiev has no intention of giving up. Asked what would happen if international military aid to Ukraine dried up, Volcker said Ukraine would “go into guerrilla mode.”

“They will go underground and there will be resistance. It will be very different from the organized defenses we see today, but they will continue to fight.”