Way back in 2012, I was one of the writers who rated Matt Kemp as the No. 1 overall fantasy player after hitting .324 with 39 home runs and 40 stolen bases the previous year. My reasoning included the theory that the Dodgers star is a player to pass up because of his durability after missing a total of 11 games over the past four years.
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Kemp, of course, played in 56 games in the 2012 campaign and 89 the following year. His durability pattern was similar to Hunter Pence, who was baseball's most durable player from 2008 to 2014, but then struggled to stay healthy in each of the six seasons. .
There is no real certainty in fantasy baseball. That's why these games are so much fun. That being said, managers are always trying to find the most reliable option in an unstable world, as injuries and unstable players are the main reasons why fantasy teams stray.
Here are some players who will be reliable contributors for at least another year.
The catcher position has physical requirements and its membership is inherently dangerous, but Murphy is as reliable as any player. Most projection systems have the 29-year-old playing in 100 to 120 games after playing 108 in his first season with the Braves. Murphy, the No. 1 catcher on the most productive offensive line in baseball and never on the disabled list, should have no trouble living up to expectations. And he has more room to play than expected.
Reliability is the main reason Freeman was selected in the first round. The 34-year-old is one of the few players in his position to contribute in all five categories. That means he could experience a decline in one aspect of his game and still be incredibly productive. And it seems highly unlikely that Freeman would drop in all three of his speed, power, and contact skills in the same season.
[2024 Fantasy Baseball Draft Rankings: C | 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | OF | SP | RP]
Arraez is one of the safest players, for entirely different reasons than Freeman. Unlike Freeman, there's only one thing Arraez is good at: his batting average is so good that it's hard to imagine things changing in the upcoming age-27 season. Arraez rarely strikes out (5.5% in 2023), but he hits a lot of line drives (28.5% in 2023), making him essential to being among the top hitters. . Those who can live off his modest contributions in home runs, RBIs, and stolen bases will get what they expect.
The Braves' lineup is incredibly deep, so it's hard to resist players commenting on safety. Riley has played nearly every at-bat from the coveted No. 3 spot in the lineup, hitting at least 30 home runs, 90 RBIs and 90 RBIs in each of the past three seasons. The only reason Riley fell into the second round of the draft is his lack of speed.
Managers who maintain modest base-stealing expectations for Bichette should feel secure that he will live up to their expectations. Heading into his 26-year-old season, he is a career .299 hitter who has hit at least .290 in each of his five seasons and reached the 20 home run plateau for the third year in a row. A smart manager would expect 10 stolen bases and be happy with more than that.
Verdugo is not only reliable, but also as boring as any fantasy asset. The 27-year-old has been durable (he last played on the IL in 2019), hitting over .280 nearly every year and hitting between 11 and 13 home runs in each of the past three years. Yankee Stadium may help him collect a few more round trippers, and he should remain one of the safest players late in the draft.
Gerrit Cole (SP, New York Yankees)
No starter has been more reliable than Cole over the past six seasons, both in terms of durability and performance. During that span, the right-handed pitcher led the majors in innings pitched, had more strikeouts than any other pitcher with 200, and ranked third in WHIP and fourth in earned run average. Cole should receive plenty of run support after the Yankees put Juan Soto and Aaron Judge in the lineup.
Finding reliability as a pitcher is perhaps the most difficult hurdle, but Gilbert has performed at a surprisingly similar level in each of his three MLB seasons. The 26-year-old has shown little signs of taking his game to the next level, but his 3.70 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and strikeouts per inning in 32 starts has satisfied managers. right.
Over 130 career innings, Duran posted an impressive 2.15 ERA and 1.05 WHIP while striking out one-third of the batters he faced. And his fastball averages an astonishing 161.9 miles per hour. Duran was able to save between 25 and 40 games, but it would be shocking if his skills weren't amazing.
