Writing a predictive article is a humbling thought experiment.my three bold bets of Year of the Tiger turned out to be largely inaccurate. in particular:
(1) I predicted that China would create the next hit crypto game. Instead, the entire gaming sector launched a number of tokens in lieu of games. But I still have hope, mainly because of the wealth of talent from China. They just know how to make people addicted to simulation boxes.
(2) I predicted that Chinese tech giants would be big into NFTs. The complicated reality is that while China's big tech companies pulled out of the NFT market when the bear market arrived, there was a steady flow of capital from the NFT market. Chinese celebrities Launching NFT as a pet project.Several local government We also opened our arms with open arms to embrace NFTs to revitalize the creative industry.
(3) I predicted that 1,000 DAOs would emerge from the Chinese cryptocurrency community. Instead, we developed deep expertise in anti-Sybil practices and he set up 1,000 airdrop farming studios to earn points. The few remaining DAOs are still active, but gone are the days when creating a DAO manifesto was considered sexy.
Forecasting is difficult because we tend to use the latest and somewhat optimistic data points to predict the roller coaster market. But this does not mean that predicting them is not very fun.
Well then, here we go again! Here are my wild predictions for China, cryptocurrencies, and the Year of the Dragon.
1. Chinese communities will invent and export new stories of decadence
The most overlooked hidden power in cryptocurrencies has always been Chinese aunties. They single-handedly created terminology, narratives, and even price fluctuations on topics unknown to the Western Cryptocurrency Illuminati.
Did you know that the term “KOL” (meaning Key Opinion Leader) originated in China? It's a controversial term that only exists because Chinese people can't pronounce the word “influencer.” Not a Chinglish phrase.
Last year, Bitcoin Ordinal and Bitcoin Layer 2 caught most industry participants off guard. Not only did the token price rise, but a new class of builders and funds began pouring resources into “making Bitcoin great again.”
“BRC20 and Oldi fascinated the Chinese community in the first place,'' said a pseudonym. 0X Wizardhe told me, a major KOL in the Bitcoin ecosystem. “The Chinese are more open to new tokens and asset standards as long as there is an asset effect. Forget about technology. The Chinese will copy anything that makes money.”
Shortly after Bitcoin's renaissance, ERC-404, a semi-fungible but completely unofficial token standard, was born. Both have the same origin: Chinese developers. Although many sympathetic officials criticized the failure to support such standards, I believe that this small step reflects Chinese society's urge to degenerate at the expense of creating new standards. I think it's just a matter of.
But more importantly, this new class of Chinese builders has learned a thing or two about creating stories, whether it's Bitcoin or the Ponzi token standard. I predict that in 2024 we will see more original degen plays from the Chinese community. Bonus prediction: Some of the mechanisms will be adopted and accepted by the broader crypto community.
2. Everything goes on-chain in China too
Yes, we will move on-chain.
Starting with centralized exchanges, the top three exchanges have all built the Web3 kingdom of wallets, native protocols, and many native DAPPs.
For example, OKX launched a multi-chain wallet in 2023. First non-custodial wallet Supports Bitcoin ordinal numbers.exchange too Partnered with Polygon Start a new layer 2 chain called X1. Willingly or not, Chinese entrepreneurs are building infrastructure and gathering existing users into the on-chain world.
The Quest platform is also a favorite of Chinese builders. Garxe It alone collects more on-chain transactions than all other websites combined. Many of these quests are aimed at airdrop farmers, but also serve the ultimate goal of rewarding users for actually using the blockchain.
Finally, and perhaps most importantly, Ethereum's development has also benefited from researchers, especially in China. zero knowledge and Account abstraction space.like a team scroll and drum is expanding Ethereum in parallel with the Ethereum Foundation. Soul Wallet and Blocto are driving the smart contract wallet space.
3. Escape of virtual currency people from the Middle Kingdom
A few things have stuck in my mind from last year. One day I received a telegram message from a Chinese cryptocurrency founder/friend. I covered his story in 2020. He asked if he could take the story down because he didn't want the Chinese government to identify him. This was urgent because the government was in a state of emergency. Crackdown on multiple virtual currency founders And investors.
The founder “wanted to disappear from the internet.”
We took down the work. However, this question made me very sad because he was the first generation of reliable cryptocurrency builders who have provided solid DeFi products. Now he has to erase himself to continue working in our industry. Perhaps “decommissioning” isn't a big sacrifice for a small to medium-sized construction company, but for a company that wants its products to impact the lives of a billion people, “disappearing” is simply not an option. there is no.
Alternative lifestyles also exist. Singapore attracted the first wealthy crypto OGs, followed by a handful of builders ( 3AC occurred).Hong Kong will take over leadership as a local government in 2022 Openly embrace Web3.
Thailand has become a garden of Eden for young hipsters and decadent crypto idealists.At Dan Wang 2023 Newsletterhe painted a picture of a young cryptocurrency runner who grapples with deep philosophical topics about nation-states, geopolitics, welfare, and psychedelics while enjoying delicious $2 meals.
In Dubai, where I live, cryptocurrencies tend to “only rise”. Most of the Chinese exchanges have moved their global headquarters to the UAE. Crypto-native builders are increasingly treating Dubai as a potential nest of residence (0% tax!).
Compared to the era of COVID-19, when living abroad was a forced choice, there are now more crypto natives. choose living abroad. Our crypto-native friends are similarly mobile, allowing us to spend months here and there.
I predict that 2024 will be the year in which these dispersed nomadic communities become larger, more inclusive, and more influential. We hope to see new changes in these communities centered around ideology, faith, hobbies, culture, and food. Perhaps the DAO idea will come back. Perhaps the next hit crypto game will come from such a group. Perhaps it's the friendships people develop along the way.
The ripple effect of a decentralized Chinese community is that it forces us to be more diverse. By physically living in each other's countries, we will further erase the boundaries between East and West.
The more I think about these bets, the more I realize that these predictions are deeply rooted in my optimism for the community. As the crypto industry moves into an on-chain bull market, the Chinese community will also accelerate at such a pace. After all, “long” in Chinese is the same character as “dragon” (龙). Not only will the market last, but so will the Chinese community.
