One of the fun aspects of the NFL season is seeing which teams rise to the top of the league and which teams languish throughout the year. For every team that stepped up in 2023 (Houston Texans), there was also a team that took a step down after appearing the year before (Minnesota Vikings).
Because of league parity, there will always be teams that fall out of playoff contention or miss the playoffs at all. Other teams go from being average to him being one of the worst teams in the league (Carolina Panthers). Which teams will fall out of contention in 2024? Are there any other teams expected to drop significantly?
Before free agency and the draft begin, let's take a look at five teams that could be poised to take a step back this season. Of course, offseason moves could change all of this, but this is not the same as the 2023 outcome and offseason outlook.
The Browns were one of the NFL's surprises last season, making the playoffs with an 11-6 record while fielding five different quarterbacks. Joe Flacco started five games, posted a 4-1 record, won the NFL Comeback Player of the Year award, and rose from the couch in late November to become the starting quarterback of many. He led a team he had abandoned to the postseason.
Cleveland will acquire Deshaun Watson in 2024 with a guaranteed contract worth $230 million. Watson wasn't fully fit before he lost the season with a shoulder injury, and he hasn't been the same quarterback since signing with Cleveland. He will lead the Browns' offense, but they need a better No. 2 option to pair with Amari Cooper and the uncertainty of Nick Chubb's return from a knee injury.
The Browns also had the No. 1 defense in points allowed per possession, but there will be changes to that group. Cleveland also needs to free up $19.6 million in cap space. They also play in the AFC North, a division in which every team was over .500 last season.
This all depends on Watson, who the Browns need to pay to be the quarterback. If Watson is mediocre, the Browns will be mediocre too.
The Saints were over .500 last season, but with Derek Carr at quarterback and a favorable schedule, they were expected to advance in the NFC South, so this was a disappointing result. Even though the Saints finished 11th in points per possession, Carr didn't live up to his big contract in the first year. Missing out on the playoffs was also a huge disappointment.
The Saints usually have a chance in the poor NFC South, but will find themselves in cap hell this offseason. New Orleans needs to cut $83.7 million in salary cap space and players who could be moved to save cap space as general manager Mickey Loomis continued to restructure contracts and impose dead money on future offseasons. There aren't many. Sure, the Saints can make a significant cut designated after June 1st, but how will that improve the roster?
New Orleans has a chance to win the NFC South again in 2024, but with Dennis Allen as head coach, will the ceiling be 9-8? The Saints don't have a good front office structure and don't have a good head coach in place to get the most out of a group that should be better than their record.
If 9-8 is the ceiling, the Saints could be in for a major decline in 2024. However, being in the NFC South will definitely support their eventual decline.
The Broncos are likely to release Russell Wilson this offseason, and if Wilson is designated for reduction after June 1st (and pushes back a significant dead cap), the team will eat up $35.4 million. It turns out. Denver is still $21.4 million over the salary cap, so changes are coming to a bloated roster that never managed to get above .500 during the Wilson era.
The offense ranked 21st in points per possession, and the defense ranked 28th in points allowed per possession. Tim Patrick, Garrett Bolles and DJ Jones are big hits, so cuts could come in addition to Wilson (if the Broncos can't trade him).
Then there's the issue of the AFC West. The Las Vegas Raiders will play hard for Antonio Pierce despite roster limitations, while the Los Angeles Chargers are expected to get better under Jim Harbaugh. Oh, and the Kansas City Chiefs have won back-to-back Super Bowls and have Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid.
The Broncos could be sitting in the basement of the AFC West in 2024 as the franchise enters the first phase of a rebuild.
Minnesota Vikings (7-10)
The Vikings were poised to fall from a 13-4 record in 2022, but that turned into a six-game slump in 2023. Minnesota has good pass-catching talent in Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, but TJ Hockenson could be. He will be out of action for most of 2024 recovering from ACL and MCL surgery.
And then there's Kirk Cousins, a free agent who has been the glue this entire season. Would the Vikings want to pay more than $40 million for a 35-year-old quarterback who won one playoff game in six seasons with the team? Or is it time to find the next franchise quarterback in the draft?
At least the Vikings have Brian Flores leading the defense, which improved from 27th in points allowed per possession in 2022 to 18th in 2023. Without Cousins, they will face the NFC North against the Detroit Lions, the rising Green Bay Packers, and the ever-improving Chicago. Bears, this could be a tough year for the Vikings.
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There are some teams that weren't actually as good as their records indicated, and one of them was the Giants. Even though New York finished 4-3 in its last seven games, was there any reason to be optimistic about the team at the end of the season?
Saquon Barkley is the best player and free agent on an offense that finished 29th in points per possession and 30th in yards per possession. Daniel Jones was terrible last season, and the Giants are targeting a $47.105 million cap hit in 2024 for a quarterback who may not even start this year (due to a torn ACL). . Even if Jones plays, he will always be playing behind a poor offensive line (which allowed 85 sacks last season).
Defensive coordinator Wink Martindale also left as the Giants had to learn a new scheme under Shane Bowen. Fortunately, there are talented players in that group, even if they were 20th in points allowed per possession last season. The Giants were a terrible football team last season, and they could be even worse in 2024.
