Alcohol e-commerce sales in 16 markets are estimated to grow at a slower pace than originally expected, with the category expected to reach nearly US$40 billion in value by 2027 rather than 2026. .
In November 2022, IWSR Beverage Market Analysis initially predicted that sales in this channel would reach nearly USD 40 billion by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 34% from 2021 to 2026. did.
However, IWSR has revised its forecast downward to a CAGR of 4.5% from 2022 to 2027, compared to a CAGR of 31% recorded between 2019 and 2021.
The IWSR E-Commerce Strategy Study 2023 covers 10 primary markets (Australia, Brazil, China, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, UK, US) and 6 secondary markets (Canada, Colombia, Mexico, Netherlands, Nigeria) We investigated. and South Africa).
IWSR said alcohol e-commerce channels have entered a period of normalization with online sales booming after the pandemic.
“Following the pandemic boom, e-commerce values saw a slight correction (down 2%) in 2022 as restrictions were lifted in most markets and shoppers returned to trade and brick-and-mortar stores,” Guy said. Mr. Wolf said. IWSR, Head of E-Commerce Insights.
“In the short term, online growth will accelerate, but remain weak due to the weak macroeconomic outlook, before returning to more stable growth from 2024.”
IWSR predicts that the overall e-commerce value share of total beverage alcohol (TBA) will remain stable at approximately 4% to 4.5%. Previously, this share figure rose from 2.1% in 2018 to 3.7% in 2021.
“Online sales are projected to remain above TBA through 2027,” Wolf added. “E-commerce therefore remains an important element in the value picture.”
According to IWSR research, nearly a quarter (24%) of alcohol buyers in 2022 had made an online purchase within the past six months, but this number decreased to 17% in 2023.
Analysts said the frequency of online alcohol purchases is increasing in all markets, but at a slower pace than in previous years. China is the only exception, in part because pandemic restrictions continue to impact supply chains.
IWSR believes China and the US will be the biggest value growth drivers for alcohol e-commerce channels.
The value share of alcohol in e-commerce is expected to rise in China from 39% in 2022 to 40% in 2027, outpacing the United States, which is expected to increase from 20% to 22%.
E-commerce alcohol sales in China and the US are expected to register a CAGR of 6% from 2022 to 2027, with Brazil (up 8%), Mexico (up 16%) and outpacing growth (from a small base). Colombia (up 10%).
Wolff also highlighted that markets such as Australia and Japan are contributing to the growth of this channel, with Latin America being “the fastest growing.”
Brazil will overtake Japan to become the fourth largest value market, but the UK's value share will fall from 12% to 9%.
agave spirits boom
IWSR said spirits' share of e-commerce alcohol has recovered from the pandemic-induced decline and is expected to stabilize. This category is projected to grow at a CAGR of 5% from 2022 to 2027.
Growth in spirits is led by agave spirits and whiskey in the US and brandy and whiskey in China, with whiskey remaining the dominant category, but agave spirits are growing rapidly and are poised to overtake gin It is said that
“The rise of agave-based spirits in e-commerce is primarily driven by the premium-plus price point in the U.S., and the category is rapidly growing across markets,” Wolf explained. “However, other countries are also projected to record rapid growth in the future.”
Beer is expected to register a CAGR of 5% over the five years to 2027, while wine is expected to grow by 1%.
IWSR revealed earlier this year that e-commerce spirits sales in the U.S. are expected to grow at a CAGR of 17% by value from 2021 to 2026.
