2024 Japanese Grand Prix: Max Verstappen returns to power, but will Mercedes blossom?

The backdrop changed as the Japanese Grand Prix moved from autumn to April for the first time, now adorned with Japan's famous cherry blossoms, but other than that it was business as usual at Suzuka this weekend.

The rescheduling of this race is an ambition finally realized for F1's owners Liberty Media, who have moved the Grand Prix to coincide with the typhoon season, especially with the country in question having a typhoon season at a distinctly different time. It felt like a strange decision to set it in the middle of The year it will be held.

This was the first time F1 had succeeded in persuading Honda, which owns Suzuka, to move the race. cherry blossoms I was not disappointed. Max Verstappen said, “It looks even more beautiful with the cherry blossoms, and it's great for taking pictures.''

Television directors were doing everything in their power to capture the delicate pink and white flowers in every shot. But that can't distract from the realities of the current F1 era.

Two weeks after losing a race for the first time since mid-September last year, Verstappen looks as invincible as ever, taking pole position again at Suzuka, his second favorite track after Spa-Francorchamps.

His margin over Red Bull teammate Sergio Perez was smaller than expected at just 0.066 seconds, but don't be fooled. Verstappen is more likely than ever to be the favorite for Sunday's race.

Verstappen's victory in Australia two weeks ago was prevented by his mechanics forgetting to tighten the rear brake caliper bolts after qualifying. And it looks as if it will take a similar misfortune to stand in his way again on Sunday.

Verstappen averaged 0.356 seconds faster than Perez in qualifying for the first three races of the season, so it's nice to see the Mexican get so close to the three-time champion on a track known as arguably F1's biggest challenge. The meaning is surprising. For drivers.

The decrease in margin is due to the impact of Pirelli tires. Suzuka poses a special challenge for tires that suffer from overheating on the most routine circuits. The combination of long high-speed corners and rough asphalt roads can cause tires to overheat even on the qualifying lap.

All drivers are talking about the need to manage around 5.6 miles, putting an artificial cap on driver performance. The driver can only go as fast as the heat capacity of the tires allows.

Verstappen said: “Overall it was a very good pace. I just tried to do my best lap. I started losing time after Turn 13 so the tires are very sensitive around here.”

“If you push a little too much in sector one, you end up running out of tires. That happened on the last lap, so we couldn't improve much.”

“Also, in the last chicane, the front tire gave up and didn’t hit the curb like it should have. I can say it wasn’t ideal, but it was still good enough.”

This characteristic also limits the tire's performance in the race, but Verstappen's delicate touch and subtlety should allow him to further extend his advantage over Perez. A force of nature, he will never be in the mood to accept a challenge from a driver he considers inferior.

Verstappen had expressed concerns about his race pace after qualifying.

“We had a very decent run throughout the whole weekend, lap after lap,” he said. “So far I'm not happy with my long runs. The pace wasn't what I wanted.

“So, it's a bit of a question mark because if you look at the long runs, especially the Ferraris, they looked very comfortable. Maybe they weren't that fast today for one lap, but they were definitely fast for the long runs. We'll have to see how it goes in the race.

“We made some changes after the third practice so we hope it works. I hope the car is improved compared to P3. Otherwise it will be difficult for us. It’s going to be a race.”

His rivals were not convinced. Lando Norris, third on the grid for McLaren, said: “Realistically speaking, it's still too far to challenge them. They're too fast for us. Yes, we're faster (relatively).” He spoke for everyone. That's true in qualifying, but usually in the race they always pull away a little bit more. ”

The Red Bulls are already in the expected finish position, and the biggest entertainment is expected to be the battle between Norris and those just behind him.

Norris was comfortably faster than the fourth-placed Ferrari of Carlos Sainz in one lap, but it may not be the same over long distances.

Behind Sainz, Fernando Alonso was impressed with the upgraded Aston Martin, stating that he felt his pace was “unexpected” in the session and declaring himself “happy and proud”. But he is worried that he will fall back from his high qualifying position as the car's true pace becomes clearer in the race.

“If you look back at the first three races, we were strong in qualifying but not in the race,” Alonso said. “If we are overtaken by Mercedes, I think this is normal and we will get back to our position.”

Behind him are McLaren's Oscar Piastri and Mercedes' Lewis Hamilton, both of whom Sainz believes will be “in the fight”.

For Hamilton, seventh place, 0.569 seconds from pole position, is nothing to shout about given Mercedes' track record and ambitions. But it says something about where the most successful F1 team and driver has fallen, that it is seen as progress for the seven-time champion.

It's not just the fact that Hamilton has outperformed teammate George Russell, who qualified for the first time this year, but also that it's a step forward for Mercedes compared to last season.

Six-and-a-half months ago, Hamilton qualified seventh in Japan, more than a second from pole position, and was driving a car that seemed to be blown off the track with every turn of the wheel.

This time, Hamilton was mostly having fun on a track that exposed Mercedes' biggest flaw: a lack of pace in fast corners. For a driver like him, qualifying this low is never fun.

“It's been a night and day different weekend so far in terms of how comfortable I felt in the car,” Hamilton said.

“We went back to the factory and did a really good analysis to try to understand how we can put the car in a sweeter position. It was very easy to drive on a circuit like this.''The balance is the best I've had in three years.

“I'm not fighting for the championship, I'm just trying to get the best out of the car. I'm happy with the cleaner qualifying session and relying more on the car. I feel like I can do that and that's a really positive thing.”

“The car felt good. There's almost nothing left. We gave it everything we had. Now we just need to add more performance.”