The oft-quoted Yogi Berra often said, “It's hard to predict, especially about the future.”
Nevertheless, we at the Center for Reinventing Public Education are diving into the deep end with 10 predictions for the outlook for learning recovery and innovation in public education in 2024. Unlike cable news experts, they rarely take responsibility for their (often incorrect) predictions. , grade yourself and report back at the end of the year. Some of these forecasts are optimistic, while others are less optimistic. Whether these predictions come true depends on what people in positions of influence do this year to shape the future.
1. School districts that are serious about addressing learning loss and innovation must transform their staffing practices. As enrollment declines and federal pandemic funding ends, there will be teacher layoffs and strikes. Academic and mental health needs become even more complex. Will school districts continue to decline or become more sustainable and efficient by specializing teachers, working in teams, leveraging technology and non-traditional educators such as parents and mentors? Will we develop new ways of staffing schools? Look to places like Mesa, Arizona and Ector County, Texas that are leading the way with innovative staffing models.
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2. Districts that fail to innovate will require state intervention. Some school districts are already innovating in anticipation of these challenges. But too many states are not, and states will once again find themselves in a position to consider buying out school districts in academic and financial crisis. It is the responsibility of the reform community to propose solutions. Let's get ready!
3. We look forward to further litigation and advocacy on behalf of children who have not been able to recover their lost learning. The new data will continue to shine a spotlight on students who are not recovering from learning loss and school districts that are not adequately serving them. Lawsuits will continue. California's new $2 billion settlement is a start. As the long-term effects of the pandemic become clearer, prepare for more litigation and advocacy for evidence-based solutions in 2024.
4. Leading school districts show how to use generative artificial intelligence to radically personalize learning, especially for marginalized children. School districts have begun experimenting with adaptive textbooks and assessments, AI-powered intervention plans for struggling students, and customized career counseling. But the majority (and the poorest) school districts will be in a tough spot because the federal government and states won't be able to provide the extensive teacher training and policy guidance that other countries do. . It's up to the reform, business, and donor communities to maintain focus on this issue and keep America abreast of preparing teachers and students for this Fifth Industrial Revolution. Education policy leaders will also have to contend with the inevitable backlash against AI due to fear, misconceptions, and unpreparedness among educators and parents.
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5. Addressing attendance and absenteeism is paramount. Students cannot learn unless they attend. This number is a serious one. The national chronic absenteeism rate (students missing 10% or more of the school year) has jumped from 15% in 2018 to 28% in 2022, according to a new analysis. Although the 2023 data shows improvement, chronic absenteeism rates still persist. It remained 75% higher than the pre-pandemic baseline. Schools need to conduct greater outreach and work more closely with community-based organizations and families to force students to attend school consistently. But school systems and policymakers also need more information about what's at the root of declining attendance. You may need to do some calculations about your school's overall value proposition. This year may be the year that schools in general, and high schools in particular, finally consider how they can be more engaging, relevant, and responsive to the needs of students and families.
6. School boards must withstand political turmoil everywhere, from the left and the right. Who doesn't love an election year? National politics will continue to be reflected in local school board agendas and school leaders' focus will continue to be drawn away from teaching and learning. AI should be watched as a hot-button privacy issue. Schools and districts that remain calm and focus on instruction, despite the political upheaval, will succeed.
7. States will take charter schools more seriously. It has become clear that many families no longer want to attend district-run schools, and that largely unregulated education savings accounts and ad hoc tutoring programs are creating many failures, abuses, and inequities. It is. Common sense solutions will be needed to make charters and ESAs work for families most in need and to help school districts adapt and compete in states with various forms of school choice.
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8. Good teaching will come back into vogue as central to achieving equity. But it's not easy. Balancing rigor with 21st century skills and strategically leveraging new educators as districts struggle with increasing educator burnout and fewer high-quality applicants for open positions. Innovative schools will thrive. This is a huge opportunity for the charter sector with all its flexibility.
9. College access will be cool again. Post-pandemic trends in declining college enrollment and progression among low-income students will cause the reform community to rethink strategies for getting children into higher education. However, this does not mean that career-related learning will disappear. Strategies for accessing and reaching college will inevitably include more flexible, customized and appropriate high school models. As the role of the teacher changes and more educators turn to technology-driven solutions and AI-enabled tools, instructional strategies will change as well.
10. Without collective action, public education (and learning loss due to the pandemic) will disappear from sight Even in a presidential election year, it is a major concern for voters. If school districts do not continue to focus on learning recovery interventions, it could take more than a decade for the United States to recover from the learning losses caused by the pandemic. CRPE's latest State of America's Student Report shows schools are off track and calls for immediate course correction. Now more than ever, researchers, policymakers, and advocates must find new and more powerful ways to convince people that addressing learning loss is critical to our nation's future. .
